Turkey prices soar for Thanksgiving because of bird flu
National Thanksgiving turkeys Flower and Peach wait before being pardoned by U.S. President Joe Biden during a ceremony on the South Lawn of the White House on November 25, 2024 in Washington, DC.
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Price turkeys This goes up quickly around Thanksgiving, and experts say consumers will have to shop around to find good prices on these birds.
A stressed Türkiye is behind the price increases supply chain.
The U.S. turkey flock has shrunk to its lowest size in nearly 40 years. highly pathogenic bird fluaccording to American Farm Bureau Federation.
As a result, wholesale turkey prices have increased by 75% since October 2024, according to the analysis. Purdue University School of Agriculture.
Wholesale turkey prices averaged 94 cents at this point last year, down from $1.71 per pound last month. US Department of Agriculture data.
Purdue University’s model predicts the average retail price of a turkey will be about $2.05 per pound in November; This is 25% higher than a year ago. All in all, a 15-pound bird can cost consumers about $31.
Purdue analysts emphasized that the actual retail price range for turkeys is wide due to differences in quality. Organic or pasture-raised turkeys cost more than regular birds.
The timing of retailers’ turkey orders is also critical in determining price.
Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute chief agricultural economist Dr. “Retailers who do not receive turkey orders early may face higher spot market prices, affecting availability and cost,” Michael Swanson wrote.
“In contrast, those waiting may now face higher spot market prices,” Swanson said.
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Consumers may pay $20 more when they buy a 16-pound turkey from a retailer who buys it on the spot market, compared to what it would cost from a retailer who buys the turkey on the wholesale market.
“This year, where you shop can make a big difference, and savvy consumers can find significant savings by comparing options,” Swanson said.
Major retailers with advance orders appear to be leveraging turkeys to draw shoppers into stores, according to Swanson.
Walmart makes an offer dinner packageIt’s under $56 for ten people, which includes a 16-pound turkey and side dishes.
Thanksgiving package Aldi’s It sells for $40 and feeds 10 people. Amazon serving his own Thanksgiving dinner promotion For $25. Aim Open Wednesday announced a $20 Thanksgiving deal for four.
Other grocers like Shoprite and Foodtown are offering customers a free 10- to 20-pound store-brand turkey if they spend $400 by Thanksgiving. BJ’s is running a similar promotion for $150.
Wells Fargo‘s annual Thanksgiving meal report shows that the typical cost of a turkey dinner for consumers is higher than these deals. According to Wells Fargo’s report, a holiday menu that includes all store brand items costs $80, while the total price for an all national brand menu is $95.
“Our report shows consumers are spending more on retail promotions this Thanksgiving because we’re leaning towards a mix of pre-made products and items that need to be assembled, which is more costly than making products from scratch,” Swanson said. he said.
“In our view, this mix more accurately reflects what we expect consumers to use in food this year.”
In addition to the timing of purchases, the strength of supply chain relationships between grocers and the farmers they work with has also allowed some retailers to keep turkey prices from rising.
Customers push shopping carts outside a Stew Leonard’s supermarket in Paramus, New Jersey, United States, on Tuesday, May 12, 2020. Stew Leonard Jr. said the meatpacking plant the company uses is operating at about 70 percent capacity and he expects the facility to return to full capacity in about a month, CT Post reported.
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Stew Leonard’swhich operates a small grocery chain in Connecticut, New York and New Jersey, said it was able to keep turkey prices the same as last year thanks to its long-standing relationships with bird suppliers.
“We have been working on the same farm for decades and the farm has not been affected by bird flu.” said Stew Leonard Jr., the chain’s CEO.
Thanksgiving dinner is traditionally considered one of the most affordable holiday meals because red meat is usually not served.
But considering the price increase on turkeys, Leonard said ham is a good alternative option for the Thanksgiving main course.
Consumers can also choose to go to a butcher or store that sells turkey meat or parts, which will cost less than a whole bird, he said.
The reduction in flock size has led to layoffs from poultry producers.
Perdue Farms announced that it was leave work A turkey plant in Indiana has about 300 employees due to bird flu and consumers turning to other meats.
A farmer who supplied supplies to Perdue lost 48,000 The turkeys tested positive for the flu.
USDA projects an increase in turkey production in 2026, assuming a recovery in HPAI.
However, prices are not expected due to the current size of the herd to drop Significantly in 2026.
Top eight states turkey production Minnesota, North Carolina, Arkansas, Indiana, Missouri, Virginia, Iowa and Pennsylvania. Türkiye farms in North Dakota and South Dakota were hit by a flu epidemic in September.
USDA is not expected to release new data on turkey and agriculture due to the government shutdown on Wednesday, the longest shutdown in US history.
