Europe can ‘weaponise’ US bases against Trump over Greenland | US | News

There was a noticeable change in tone among European leaders after President Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on eight NATO allies who oppose the US takeover of Greenland, The Times reported.

Swedish prime minister Ulf Kristersson said, “We will not allow ourselves to be blackmailed,” while Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s prime minister and the only European head of government invited to Trump’s inauguration, called the move a “mistake.”

Even Finnish president Alexander Stubb, who prides himself on his rhetorical restraint and plays golf with the US president, warned of a “pernicious spiral” that would damage the transatlantic axis.

There seems to be an emerging consensus that there needs to be a response from the affected countries (Denmark, France, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden, as well as the UK); even if it is merely a symbolic and carefully calibrated gesture. But what?

Weaponizing America’s dependence on European countries

There has been a lot of speculation lately about the possibility of America weaponizing its dependence on European countries. Officials in Berlin were dismayed by reports suggesting that the US military could be moved away from some of its mega-bases on German soil, such as Ramstein and Stuttgart, which are vital for Washington to project power into Africa and the Middle East. One of the sources denied this was possible but said it was possible for Germany to significantly increase the rent it demands for these facilities. Yougov conducted a poll on the issue and found that 47 percent of Germans support the withdrawal of US troops from the country.

But Germany’s defense minister warned on Wednesday that any US move to annex Greenland would jeopardize NATO’s existence. “Going it alone represents a worse alternative and jeopardizes NATO’s survival as a North Atlantic defense alliance,” Boris Pistorius wrote in a guest article for Die Zeit newspaper. he said.

EU will oppose Trump trade deal

Individual European countries are unlikely to block America’s access to the crown jewels of their economies, such as Denmark’s insulin, Finland’s icebreakers or the Netherlands’ chip manufacturing technology. But momentum is building behind a simple, broad countermeasure. A majority of European Parliament members appear ready to delay ratification of Brussels’ unilateral trade deal with Trump last summer, under which Europeans agreed to accept 15 percent American tariffs without imposing any duties of their own.

Europe has many other tools at its disposal to take advantage of what Tobias Gehrke, a geoeconomics analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank, calls “asymmetric interdependence”: areas where Americans may need Europeans more than Europeans need Americans.

Mutual tariffs

The most obvious tool is reciprocal tariffs: mirroring US figures, tit-for-tat. This could be augmented by the old EU tactic of selectively targeting certain exports important to Trump’s base (bourbon from Kentucky, for example). On Sunday, President Macron joined other prominent figures in arguing that it is time to implement the EU’s anti-oppressive tool, the “last resort” package of tariffs and other comprehensive trade measures developed to deter China from bullying individual states.

Another option Gehrke highlights is an export tax, where Europeans effectively impose tariffs on their own goods in certain areas where the United States cannot easily find substitutes such as specialized industrial machinery. The logic is that raising prices would cause political pain for Trump. But as Gehrke points out, this is a highly risky strategy that will disproportionately harm parts of European industry.

Regulatory acceptance

Brussels could also take control of its expanding regulatory apparatus and turn it against the United States by changing rules to exclude American products. This can be particularly effective in the food and agriculture sector. Finally, European leaders may unofficially encourage their citizens to participate in boycotts of U.S. goods. This has already happened in Canada and some European countries. A Northern official said their family had stopped buying Sun-Pat peanut butter as a symbolic sign of anger.

The EU has some of the most advanced and restrictive technology and data regulations on the planet. It has already begun to act more aggressively on this front; most notably, it fined Elon Musk’s social media platform X €120 million for various breaches of the Digital Services Act.

Gehrke notes that Brussels has the power to fine up to 10 percent of a Silicon Valley company’s global turnover, ban services that violate EU rules and even stop data transfers across the Atlantic, but this would damage much of Europe’s own IT infrastructure.

US financial sector targets energy and defense purchases

The EU has a large regulatory toolbox it can use to target parts of the US financial sector, allowing for a flexible and fine-tuned counterattack, but the risks of spiraling measures and countermeasures are still considerable. It’s possible to exclude Americans from other areas of the European economy, from hydrocarbons to artificial intelligence.

The EU buys about half of the liquefied natural gas and crude oil exported by the United States. Imposing tariffs on these fuels would cause great harm to many member states in the short and medium term and would especially devastate Germany’s already struggling industrial base. This would also deal a blow to the American energy industry. In the long term, this could ultimately be the beginning of a wholesale rebalancing of Europe’s energy supply.

American arms manufacturers could be excluded from European defense purchases, increasing pressure on Trump, but it is hard to imagine the EU being prepared to give up world-leading US-made weapons systems such as the F-35 fighter jet or Patriot air defense batteries. The same goes for Musk’s satellite communications network, Starlink.

There is no such thing as painless retaliation against the United States. Some of these measures will include the unbundling of the West’s basic infrastructure. Everyone involved risks triggering a crushing act of revenge by Trump.

But as Europeans have learned, inaction has its price.