Trump’s bailout threat may have been key to Milei’s electoral triumph in Argentina | Javier Milei
“The dollar always talks in the end,” Donald Trump wrote in his 1987 bestseller The Art of the Deal.
Javier Milei’s surprise victory in Argentina’s midterm elections (after Trump bailed him out with $40 billion) suggests there may be some truth to this claim.
The US president had vowed to kick out his South American ally if the radical libertarian fared poorly in Sunday’s make-or-break legislative vote, as widely predicted. “If he doesn’t win, we’ll leave,” Trump said when Argentina’s shaggy-haired president visited him in Washington earlier this month to plead for economic aid.
Milei’s political troubles have been increasing in recent months; Argentina’s slowing economy has translated into market unrest, along with growing public frustration over the postponement of provincial elections in Buenos Aires in September. Trump stepped in after this humiliating result, offering a $20bn (£15bn) currency swap deal and $20bn in additional support for what he claimed was a “dying” economy; but the US president stated that such “generosity” would evaporate if Milei failed to make a big profit on Sunday.
Milei’s opponents accused Trump of recklessly interfering in Argentina’s electoral process with his clear message to voters. Some predicted an anti-Trump backlash similar to that felt in neighboring Brazil as a result of Washington’s attempt to force officials to drop former president Jair Bolsonaro’s coup case.
But there was little sign Sunday night that voters were retaliating against Trump’s intervention. Some even suspected that the gamble might have worked by influencing the minds of voters.
Argentinian politician and former ambassador to China and the United States, Diego Guelar, expressed his discomfort with Trump warning voters that “they should vote for his friend.” [Milei] or he would abandon them.” But Guelar thought that the US president’s “direct intervention”, although “terrible”, had worked, with voters recognizing the “need for American assistance” and blaming the opposition for the economic crisis.
Brian Winter, an Argentinian expert who edits Americas Quarterly magazine, said: “This looks like a masterful move by Donald Trump. He threw a lifeline to a drowning man at just the right moment.”
Milei’s libertarian party, La Libertad Avanza (Liberation Developments), received about 41% of the vote, compared to 32% of its Peronist rivals; This was much higher than expected after miserable corruption scandals and a growing economic crisis. Argentina’s bonds, stocks and the peso rose on Monday as Milei celebrated what he called a vindication of his two-year “shock therapy” campaign.
Winter was still trying to gauge the extent to which Trump’s $40 billion bailout — and his pre-election warning — affected the outcome; This underlined how many voters still blame the Peronists for years of economic chaos, even as they grow increasingly disillusioned with Milei.
“But the way politics works, Trump will get his share of it,” Winter said. “It looks like a bold bet — not just a bold bet. At least the appearance is that it shows the value of being an ally to Donald Trump. And this is a White House that has used carrots and sticks on Latin America more than probably any White House in the last 50 years.”
Trump’s unexpectedly intense focus on Latin America (including the highly controversial naval buildup off the coast of Venezuela, accusing Mexican leaders of narcotics ties, threatening to “take back” the Panama canal by force, and imposing 50% tariffs on Brazil) may not be winning him many friends in the region outside of Milei’s movement.
But Winter believed it was influencing people, for better or worse: “It helped persuade the Mexicans to take a more active approach to security and immigration. It persuaded the Panamanians to move the Chinese away from near the canal. It appears to have backtracked on a strategy that failed in Brazil – and now both sides are talking about a major deal on rare earths, critical minerals and potentially other areas.”.”
Winter admitted that Trump’s distinctly 19th-century-style doctrine—bailouts and loans for his friends, gunboat diplomacy for his enemies—could easily backfire over time. “But for now, most of them are producing results.”
Above all, for Milei, now Trump’s top regional pal, who used the X to thank his North American insurer as the extent of Sunday’s victory became clear.
The Argentinian President said to Trump, “You are a great friend of the Argentine Republic” and now signed with the “Maga” slogan they share.
Additional reporting by Facundo Iglesia
