Exclusive-Prior to Iran attacks, CIA assessed Khamenei could be replaced by hardline IRGC elements if killed, sources say
By Erin Banco
WASHINGTON, February 28 (Reuters) – Before the attacks by the United States and Israel on Saturday, the US Central Intelligence Agency assessed that even if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the operation, hard-line figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could replace him, two sources with knowledge of intelligence said.
The agency’s assessments over the past two weeks have looked broadly at what might happen in Iran following U.S. intervention and the extent to which a military operation could trigger regime change in the Islamic Republic (now an apparent goal for Washington).
A third source familiar with the matter said the IRGC coming to power was among several different scenarios emerging.
The Revolutionary Guard is an elite military force whose purpose is to protect the Shiite Muslim religious rule in Iran.
Intelligence agency reports do not definitively conclude any scenario, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.
The Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.
President Donald Trump has signaled for weeks that the United States is interested in seeing regime change in Iran, but has offered no details about who Washington expects could lead the country.
In an early morning video speech on Saturday, Trump called Tehran a “terrorist regime” and encouraged the Iranian people to take over the government, saying U.S. military strikes would pave the way for an uprising.
The U.S. and Israeli strike followed weeks of talks within the U.S. government about whether to strike Iran after deadly protests broke out there in December.
US officials have tried to strike a nuclear deal with Tehran in recent weeks to prevent interference.
At a briefing last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told top congressional lawmakers known as the “Gang of Eight” that the U.S. operation would likely move forward, but that Trump could change his mind, especially if nuclear talks are successful. No agreement emerged from the talks in Geneva.
Rubio informed the Gang of Eight on Friday night that the operation to attack Iran would likely begin in the coming hours, but Trump could still change his mind, two sources familiar with the matter said.
(Reporting by Erin Banco; Editing by Humeyra Pamuk and Daniel Wallis)
