Experts warn Maduro’s fall could unleash a successor ‘even worse’

As the Trump administration ratchets up pressure on Venezuela, experts warn that the ouster of Nicolás Maduro could open the door to an “even worse” successor for the dictator himself and unleash an environment dominated by drug cartels, guerrilla groups and armed warlords who have entrenched themselves across Venezuela for decades.

Today, Venezuela is a mix of criminal enclaves controlled by cartels, Colombian rebels and pro-regime militias rather than a centralized dictatorship. Analysts told Fox News Digital that U.S. policy now faces not just Maduro, but an entrenched ecosystem of non-state armed groups that could seize power in a post-Maduro vacuum.

Roxanna Vigil, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and former U.S. national security official focused on Latin America, said the tide is now binary.

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“From my perspective, what happens next will largely depend on which direction the U.S. pressure campaign goes,” Vigil said. “If it goes in the direction of escalation and conflict, that means there will be little control or even less ability to influence what happens next.”

Experts say the danger is not just a stronger version of Maduro, but the rise of armed actors who already control large swaths of Venezuelan territory. Vigil said an uncontrolled collapse could reveal something much more dangerous than the current regime. “He could potentially be worse than Maduro,” he said.

Jason Marczak, vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin American Center, told Fox News Digital that these powerhouses include some of the most violent criminal organizations in the Western Hemisphere.

Bolivarian National Police fired tear gas at opposition demonstrators in Caracas, Venezuela, Saturday, February 15, 2014. Venezuelan security forces, backed by water tanks and tear gas, dispersed groups of anti-government demonstrators who tried to block Caracas’ main highway on Saturday evening. (AP Photo/Alejandro Cegarra)

“It is hard to imagine that things will get worse under Nicolás Maduro. But what is important is not only that Maduro is gone, but that none of those around him – who will only become more perpetrators of the injustices that Maduro puts forward – are allowed to come to power.”

If opposition leader María Corina Machado or Edmundo González fail to fill the void in post-Maduro Venezuela, experts point to a crowded field of dangerous actors who could try to seize power if Maduro suddenly falls.

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Diosdado Cabello

Diosdado Cabello emerges as the regime’s most feared and influential figure. La Nacion He describes him as Chavismo’s long-time number two, with far-reaching control over the party machinery and propaganda apparatus. Its power extends from domestic political sanctions to domestic and judicial authorities.

There was Cabello Approved by the US Treasury in 2018 for corruption, money laundering, embezzlement and connection with drug trafficking networks within the state. Reuters reports documented how the US later increased rewards for information leading to his arrest as part of broader efforts to target the Cartel de los Soles. Analysts say a government led by Cabello could combine party power, state security forces and media control under a single radical operator.

Minister of Internal Affairs and Justice Diosdado Cabello (C), as Vice President of Venezuela, speaks with National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez (L) Delcy Rodríguez (R) watches over Simon Bolivar International Airport in Caracas, Venezuela, on July 18, 2025. (Jesus Vargas/Getty Images)

Jorge Rodríguez

Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly and one of Maduro’s closest political actors, is another senior figure ready for any succession scenario. La Nación emphasizes his prominence within the ruling elite, noting his roles as mayor, communications minister and key strategist.

According to a report, the US Treasury sanctioned Rodriguez for actions that undermine democratic institutions. Atlantic Council summary OFAC designations. Experts warn that Rodríguez could impose a more technocratic – but no less authoritarian – version of Chavismo by pairing his negotiation skills with control over electoral processes and state information systems.

Vladimir Padrino López

Venezuela’s long-serving defense minister, Vladimir Padrino López, is portrayed by La Nación as the backbone of the military establishment and the guarantor of Maduro’s survival. Thanks to him, the armed forces remain loyal, creating an axis of power between Padrino and Maduro.

The US Treasury sanctioned Padrino López, part of Maduro’s inner circle, for maintaining the authoritarian system and enabling repression. Observers warn that if Padrino assumes leadership, Venezuela could slide toward an even more militarized model, one in which political authority is openly fused with military command structures.

Venezuelan defense minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez speaks at a press conference accompanied by the military high commander at the Ministry of Defense in Caracas, Venezuela, on Thursday, January 24, 2019. (Carlos Becerra/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Delcy Rodriguez

Venezuela’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, is described as a central political operator within the regime and part of a powerful ruling duo with his brother Jorge. Its influence spans institutional, economic and diplomatic areas. The U.S. Treasury has sanctioned Rodríguez as part of Maduro’s inner circle for helping to dismantle democratic rule, and the European Union has placed him under measures for human rights violations and the erosion of the rule of law.

Analysts note that Rodríguez has increasingly gained control of critical sectors, including the oil industry, placing him at the center of the opaque revenue structures that keep the regime afloat. They warn that a transition led by him could further tighten state control over the economy and political apparatus.

Cilia Flores, wife of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, speaks to the media during a simulation of the government’s official vote on a new parliament on July 30 in Caracas, Venezuela, July 16, 2017. Marco Bello / Reuters

Lash Flores

First Lady and longtime Chavista power broker Cilia Flores completes the circle of figures identified by La Nación as essential for Maduro to retain power. Flores has held senior positions, including speaker of the National Assembly, attorney general, and member of the PSUV leadership.

The U.S. Treasury sanctioned Flores in 2018 as part of broader actions targeting Maduro’s inner circle and their corruption networks, a move widely reported by Reuters. Family members also faced sanctions or indictments in connection with narcotics cases. Analysts say Flores’ political clout and clout within the party and the legal system make him a key player in any succession calculations.

In this April 13, 2019 file photo, both presidential guard and military counterintelligence chief General Ivan Hernandez Dala (L) and Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez (R) stand in Caracas, Venezuela. (Ariana Cubillos/AP)

Iván Hernández Dala

Hernández Dala heads Venezuela’s military counterintelligence service (DGCIM) and commands the presidential guard, making him one of the most feared figures in the security apparatus. His control over internal pressure gives him a significant advantage in any power struggle. It was designated by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2019 due to its involvement in gross human rights violations.

Under his command, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) said, “Reported abuses by DGCIM and SEBIN include brutal beatings, strangulation, cutting of the soles of the feet with razor blades, electric shocks, and death threats.” he wrote.

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Marczak and Vigil believe Washington’s next moves—and whether those moves will lead to negotiation or escalation—will decide whether Venezuela moves toward democracy or something even worse.

As Marczak puts it: “Winning is not just the departure of Nicolás Maduro… Winning is actually the transition to democratic forces.”