EXPLAINED | Talks in Geneva, tensions in Hormuz: Who’s blocking a US-Iran breakthrough? | World News
US and Iranian officials in Geneva tentatively agreed on “guiding principles” for US-Iran nuclear talks amid gathering storm clouds on February 17. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi praised it as “constructive” and said: “We managed to reach a broad agreement… drafts will be shared and the date for the third round will be determined.”
However, US Vice President J.D. Vance said, “The President has drawn some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to accept.” He destroyed this hope within a few hours.
This fragile progress is now hanging by a thread, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s shadow looms large.
From Jerusalem’s stubborn demands to Iran’s Strait of Hormuz exercises to America’s growing naval fleet, the pieces are coming together for disaster. Experts warn that a US-Iran war is becoming increasingly inevitable.
Add Zee News as Preferred Source
Is Israel behind the US-Iran stalemate and the seemingly imminent war in West Asia?
Netanyahu’s Washington Power Play
It wasn’t so long ago that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, sensing a critical moment, brought forward his visit to the White House by seven days to meet with US President Donald Trump on February 10.
Iran left its mark on the discussions. Meanwhile, Netanyahu, who obtained new information about Tehran’s missile development, said, “On this trip, we will first discuss negotiations with Iran.”
Ahead of the talks, Israeli officials insisted that the United States would not compromise on four core demands:
- Iran needs to transfer its highly enriched material to another country.
- Stop nuclear enrichment completely.
- Stop ballistic missile production.
- Stop funding proxy forces like Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in the Middle East.
According to The Times of Israel, a senior Israeli official said, “Any agreement that does not include these conditions is a bad agreement. This administration has proven its commitment to Israel in every field, especially in the Iranian region.”
A softer deal is seen by Israel as an existential threat. Netanyahu’s group called on Washington to demand absolute control, citing the “Libya model” that envisages the complete surrender of nuclear weapons. After the meeting, Netanyahu reiterated that “the necessity of dismantling the entire nuclear structure of Tehran” is a condition for peace. Trump listened with understanding and said, “Yes, that’s acceptable, but first of all, there are no nuclear weapons,” according to an Al Jazeera report.
Critics argue that Israel’s lobbying efforts have hardened US positions and turned potential compromise into a stalemate. Netanyahu left empowered, but Tehran was furious.
Road to Dead End: From Oman to Geneva
Trump envoy Steve Witkoff laid out America’s red line in the first round of indirect talks brokered by Oman: “We cannot allow even a 1 percent enrichment capacity.” Because this paves the way for bombs. Iran responded passionately; “Enrichment… will continue with or without a deal,” Araghchi said, limiting the scope to only nuclear weapons, no missiles or proxies.
Principles on sanctions relief and inspections emerged in the second round of Geneva, but Iran’s refusal to compromise on key issues stalled the momentum. A third meeting is not planned.
Israel’s broad wish list, reinforced by Netanyahu’s visit, clashes sharply with Tehran’s narrow focus. US Vice President JD Vance gave clues about the consequences after Geneva: If the red lines continue, strikes are on the horizon. Trump’s openness to diplomacy masks the ticking clock under pressure from Jerusalem.
US’s ‘Armada’ gambles in Iran’s Strait of Hormuz
Iran decided to make a major show of force as the Geneva negotiations approached on February 17. In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) began “Smart Control in the Strait of Hormuz” exercises and temporarily closed parts of this crucial waterway.
The United States has been steadily increasing its presence heading towards the Middle East, sending the massive USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, to join the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group already in the Arabian Sea, starting in late January.
This heavy buildup included F-35 stealth fighter jets, destroyers, Patriot missile defenses in Qatar, and pilots placed on five-minute alert, all targeting the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran cracked down just before the diplomats met, testing ways to block the flow of oil and counter US-Israeli pressure.
Supreme Leader Khamenei continued his sarcasm the same week: “A warship is certainly a dangerous weapon, but the weapon that can sink it is even more dangerous.” Tehran was sending a clear message: They will not back down easily.
Is War Inevitable: What’s next?
The war is not yet certain, but it is getting dangerously close, with Netanyahu demanding either a complete US military victory against Iran or regime-crippling, ‘no room for weak diplomacy’ terms.
There’s a spiral of building coercion in which Iran’s Hormuz exercises are colliding head-on with US aircraft carriers, and one wrong move could ignite the fight.
What’s next? If they change the draft offers, perhaps a third round of talks can be held. But if that fails, things could blow up quickly, the US could reinstate tough sanctions, Israel could strike Iran’s nuclear facilities first, and Iran could respond through proxy forces or by mining the Strait of Hormuz.
War has no guarantees, stalemates with tough demands and bold refusals, and the dazzling rivalry between navies makes it feel real.
