Four years into Ukraine invasion, Russia’s gains are small, while Kyiv remains resilient | Ukraine

Russia’s occupation of Ukraine, now in its fifth horrific year, has already lasted longer than the entire fighting on the eastern front of the Second World War. The Soviets marched from the gates of Leningrad to Berlin in just over 15 months in 1944-45; Today, Russia’s gain rate in Pokrovsk in Ukraine is 70 meters per day, and in Kupiansk it is 23 meters per day. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Given Ukraine’s 2025 size of 1,865 square miles (about 0.8% of the country), the gains are negligible; Therefore, the idea put forward by the Russians, and sometimes accepted by the naive White House, that Ukraine is suffering a slow-motion defeat is not true. In reality, even taking into account the fact that hundreds of thousands of homes were left without electricity, heat and water after Russian bombing, Ukraine is clarifying its strategy and pushing back with modest success.

A Ukrainian counteroffensive in the open country of Zaporizhzhia province, north of Huliaipole, gained an estimated 40 square miles this month, taking advantage of a delayed decision by Elon Musk’s Starlink to prevent Russian soldiers from using the satellite communications system inside Ukraine. This continues with Ukraine retaking Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region in December. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited three weeks after Russia announced its capture of the town.

“The Kremlin is trying to create a narrative that Ukraine is on the brink of collapse,” says Christina Harward of the Institute for the Study of War. “This is completely wrong. What we actually see is small-scale liberations of Ukraine taking advantage of winter conditions and the blocking of Starlink.”

Against this background, it is not surprising that Russia continues to demand that Ukraine withdraw its military from Kramatorsk, Sloviansk and the rest of Donetsk (the latest proposal seems to be the creation of a demilitarized zone, although Russia wants to patrol). Earlier this month, a NATO intelligence official estimated that they did not believe Russia could seize the region “anytime in the next 18 months”; but the region is so urbanized that it could take a long time to incur losses of 600,000 or more Russians.

Diplomatic misdirection shows how poorly Russia’s military is performing. Last week, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov became the latest Kremlin official to reference the agreement reached in Anchorage; This claim claimed that at a summit in Alaska in August, US President Donald Trump agreed with Vladimir Putin that Ukraine should surrender the rest of Donetsk without a fight. But while Trump has occasionally flirted with the idea, it is not a position the United States has sought to implement amid objections from Ukraine and Europe.

Unlike almost exactly a year ago. Trump and Zelenskyy openly argued in the Oval Office, and it became clear that the United States would completely end its support for Ukraine. “But the worst-case scenario has not come true,” said Orysia Lutsevych, a Ukraine expert at the Chatham House think tank. “The US is selling weapons to Ukraine, still providing intelligence, and whatever the pressure is, it is not strong enough for Kiev to accept.”

Of course, Ukraine faces significant challenges elsewhere. Following systematic Russian bombardment, the service situation became catastrophic, with more than a million Ukrainians left without electricity, heating and water throughout a cold winter, with temperatures dropping to -20C. In Kiev, 2,600 buildings have no electricity or heating; The most affected area is located on the left eastern bank. Residents say temperatures inside the apartments dropped to 5 or 6 degrees following a mocking attack sometimes described as a bombing attack. kholodomor (death from cold).

Although the weather is poised to turn for the better, the failure of Western allies to produce sufficient air defense missiles is not only obvious but allegedly worsening. Starting in the autumn, hope was pinned on cheap ground-based Shahed interceptors such as the Wild Hornets’ Sting missiles on the front line, but a statistical analysis Data from the Institute for Science and International Security show that the rate of armed Witnesses hitting targets rose from 6 percent last January to 30 percent in May and remained at 29 percent in December.

But incessant attacks on Ukraine’s civilian population have so far yielded minimal strategic gain to Russia, and it’s an interesting strategy for Putin to adopt, given his claim that everyone knows the two countries are “one people.” Ukraine may be depopulated, but it has no desire to submit to Russian rule, let alone hand over the rest of Donetsk. There is no significant change in the battlefield dynamics in favor of Moscow.

Ukraine, meanwhile, took a stronger approach. The country’s new defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, wants to eliminate 50,000 Russian troops a month; this is an increase from the current casualty rate of about 35,000 per month, of which NATO estimates 20,000 to 25,000 were killed. This is a clear-cut goal designed to exceed Russia’s current hiring rate. about 30,000 to 35,000 and could force Moscow into a politically risky mobilization or even a more realistic diplomatic position.

Experts believe a higher goal could be achieved in theory, although it depends on Russia continuing to attack. It is estimated that approximately 80% of losses are caused by drones operating at depths of up to 25 km; this effectively prevents either side from mustering more than a handful of soldiers unless under cover of rain or fog. But Ukraine also must contend with the depletion of many of its best troops and soldiers.

Last month, Fedorov acknowledged that 200,000 Ukrainians were absent without permission and could not stand the pressure of remaining at the front. The military may not be able to operate at a faster tempo.

Jade McGlynn, a research fellow at King’s College, said she feared Ukraine’s allies had no credible plan to force Russia into a ceasefire in what was essentially a stalemated conflict. “I don’t see a strategy in Europe and the United States has its eggs in the peace process, but if Russia does not intervene in the right way, there will be no process,” he said.