France votes in local elections seen as crucial indicator for presidential poll | France
France has started voting in the first round of municipal elections, which are vital to testing political temperatures ahead of next year’s presidential elections.
Votes for mayors and councilors in 35,000 villages, towns and cities across France focus on local issues such as security, housing and garbage collection, and are very different from national elections.
But two rounds of voting on successive Sundays, particularly in major towns and cities, will be scrutinized for what they might reveal about party strategy and alliances in France’s increasingly fragmented political landscape ahead of the 2027 presidential race.
Emmanuel Macron’s two-term term ends next year and there is uncertainty over which candidates will run for the presidency of the EU’s second-largest economy. Two years after Macron called early elections in 2024, parliament remains divided; Absolute majority cannot be achieved; The left is divided between the far right and centrists.
The far-right anti-immigration National Rally (RN) is seen as a key contender in the presidential race, but has traditionally struggled to establish itself at the local level and lost councilors in the last municipal elections in 2020.
The RN is trying to hold on to the largest city it governs, Perpignan, with a population of 121,000 near the Spanish border. It hopes to win another city, with ambitions such as Toulon on the south coast and Nîmes in the southeast.
A major victory for the RN in a major city would allow the party to claim momentum. He is the main opposition rival in Marseille, France’s second largest city, which has been ruled by a leftist coalition since 2020. In Nice, France’s fifth-largest city, Éric Ciotti, who is leaving the leadership of the traditional right-wing party Les Républicains (LR) to merge with the RN in 2024, hopes to win the city from his bitter rival and one-time right-wing ally Christian Estrosi. How the RN fares in some cities will depend on whether parties on the left form some kind of alliance or agreement between the first and second rounds to block the far right.
Historically, France’s major cities were governed either by center-left groups, including the Socialists, or by Les Républicains. Green-led coalitions won key cities, including Lyon, in the last municipal elections in 2020 but are under pressure as they try to maintain their gains.
Radical leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party, La France Insoumise (LFI), is also trying to gain a foothold at the local level ahead of the presidential race. It aims to have more councillors, particularly in the greater Paris area, and is targeting mayoralties in towns such as Roubaix in the north.
Any alliances or allegiances formed between two rounds will be closely monitored to hold back rival factions in particular towns or cities. Any local agreement that will bring the traditional right and the far right closer and eliminate the historical line between the two is being carefully monitored. It also remains to be seen whether left coalitions led by the Socialists, for example in Marseille, will be able to make deals with Mélenchon’s LFI to block potential gains for the RN.
François Kraus, head of political studies at the IFOP polling institute, said municipal votes should not be seen as “preselections for the presidential election” but would still reveal important trends and dynamics. “These municipal elections will undoubtedly provide a useful barometer of the political climate,” he told Agence France-Presse.
A major focus will be the fight to become mayor of Paris. Right-wing Rachida Dati, who served as the minister of culture during the Emmanuel Macron period and the minister of justice during the Nicolas Sarkozy period, is trying to take over Paris, which has been in power for 25 years, from the left.
Dati was the first woman of North African and Muslim descent to hold a significant post in the French government and redefined political prominence in France. He is one of the most well-known candidates running in municipal elections. In September, Dati will stand trial in Paris over allegations of corruption and abuse of power. He was accused of lobbying on behalf of the Renault-Nissan car manufacturing group while sitting in the European parliament. He denied all wrongdoing.
Deputy mayor and Paris Socialist MP Emmanuel Grégoire leads a left-wing coalition in a close race in Paris, with five candidates potentially advancing to the final round.
The northern port city of Le Havre, where former prime minister Édouard Philippe has laid out his 2027 presidential bid and suggested his candidacy for the presidency would be questioned if he does not win the city he has governed since 2014, is also being watched closely.
The departure of many mayoral candidates from political parties reflects voters’ anger at politics and parliamentary deadlock. Especially in villages, many mayors stand independently.
