From shipping, to proxies, to targeting US bases, Iran’s options to strike back are limited | Iran
Iran had tried to deterrent Donald Trump from participating in Israel’s bombing campaign with terrible retaliation threats, but its options are now limited and full of risk.
Iranian authorities said that especially US ships and military bases will be targeted, but most of the capacity it trusted as deterrence has been robbed by Israeli strikes in the last few days. However, these strikes focused on long -range ballistic missile launchers. Iran still has a tremendous ammunition for shorter -range missiles and drones.
In the last few weeks, the United States took measures, distributed the sea presence in the region and strengthened air defenses, to try to provide it as difficult as possible.
Moreover, Trump warned that if Iran tries to return, the US will be more widely involved in Israel’s war, and in recent days, one of the targets for the US bombing planes would be the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khaneii.
Iran’s other main weapon built for decades, the alliance network with regional militias, the “axis of resistance”, but this is exhausted. Hezbollah’s wide missile arsenal was dusty by the Israeli Air Force last year. Israeli planes came back to control Lebanese Shiite power and bombed the missile stock in Southern Beirut in April.
A Shiite militia in Iraq, a Shiite militia, Kata’ib Hezbollah, threatened to target the “US interests” in the Middle East in response to Washington’s participation in Israel’s support. One of his commanders, Abu Ali Al-Ascari said that in CNN, the US bases in the region would “look like duck hunting”. The United States has military facilities in at least nineteen areas in the Middle East, eight is permanent.
Another Iranian partner in Yemen, Houthi forces, accepted the ceasefire with the US in May, but Trump warned that the US decided to participate in attacks and that the US would see that they would see the ceasefire in the Red Sea will be broken, and that Houthis has done with mixed results in the past.
The fact that any of these militias entered the war would receive a destructive response from the US, which was prepared for such an unexpected situation for the months when Israel’s attack was prepared.
Iran also passed every day, with a narrow gate of only 55 km wide to the Persian Gulf, a narrow gate to the Persian Gulf, 20m barrels and hot -made gas every day, with the option to use reliable threats to close the ships or to close the Hormuz Strait.
Hardline Iranian politicians wanted the throat to be closed in the last few days. It has the advantage of being a tool to implement a direct cost to Trump, as it will trigger an increase in oil price in the US prior to the congress elections next year. But at the same time there would be a dramatic economic self -harm. Iranian oil uses the same network passage and closes the risk of bringing the Gulf Arab states to war to protect their interests, criticizing Hormuz’s Israeli attack.
Tehran may decide to serve the coldness of revenge at a later date to avoid bringing more enemy into conflict or inviting a US bombing campaign. In the past, he delayed his reaction to external attacks. Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi implies this open -end retaliation on Sunday when Trump’s decision would be “endless results”.
