Rise of a new power player in South Asia: Profound changes on cards for India, China
It has been almost 18 months since Generation Z protesters took to the streets of Dhaka and other major cities in mass demonstrations that led to the collapse of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s entrenched government. Their demands were clear: cleaner policies, more job opportunities, and an end to the corrupt and oppressive system. The country’s youth (roughly a third of the population are between the ages of 18 and 35) are restless about a better future and meaningful political reform.
That energy is reflected in this week’s polls, which are considered the first truly competitive election in 17 years.
According to various local television networks, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party has emerged as the dominant political force. Official results are expected to be announced later on Friday, but a BNP victory will pave the way for leader Tarique Rahman to become prime minister. The party’s main rival, Jamaat-e-Islami, appears to have failed to gain momentum despite forming an alliance with the student-led National Citizen Party. Hasina’s Awami League, once the central pillar of political life, has been banned from participating in contests.
Rahman, the son of the late former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and former President Ziaur Rahman, the founder of the BNP, who was assassinated in 1981, returned to Bangladesh from a 17-year exile in London. He will have to deliver meaningful change or disappoint voters who believe this election will mark a real break from clan-centered politics.
Bangladeshis also voted in a referendum that imposed a 10-year limit on the prime minister’s term, among other constitutional changes aimed at strengthening democratic checks and balances. This ambition should be applauded; If successful, these reforms will transform a nation long held back by an authoritarian system.
Both India and China have a share in this change, and this is where the new leader must tread carefully. It will need to resist the temptation to move decisively towards Beijing while avoiding pressure to return to New Delhi’s orbit. Dhaka’s biggest advantage is not choosing sides but actively courting both. Bangladesh is at the center of India’s security as it neighbors sensitive northeastern states. For China, it is a key node in the Belt and Road Initiative and a key strategic asset along the Bay of Bengal. But the influence of the two powers was built differently. New Delhi has pinned much of its influence on Hasina personally (she currently lives in self-imposed exile in India), while Beijing has strengthened its presence with long-term investments designed to survive political change.
Washington added another innovation. US President Donald Trump granted duty-free treatment to some textile exports of Bangladesh made with US inputs. The sector is the economic lifeline for Dhaka, which is the world’s second-largest garment exporter after China. But for India’s garment manufacturers, it’s a reminder that economic advantage in the region is no longer automatic.
New Delhi’s Bangladesh policy relied heavily on Hasina; This bet now appears to be extremely misjudged. In exchange for close cooperation on security and trade issues, India ignored concerns of democratic backsliding.
Diplomatic ties have been further complicated by Hasina’s continued presence in India, which has led to harsh criticism in Bangladesh, especially from Generation Z demonstrators who ousted her government. A special court in Bangladesh sentenced him to death in absentia and found him guilty of crimes against humanity for his role in the violent crackdown on the 2024 protests.
The BNP, which is preparing to lead the next government, is neither anti-India nor overtly pro-China. Most importantly, it does not focus its foreign policy around New Delhi and has stated that it will not grant privileged status to any of its neighbors. Instead, he will prioritize the interests of his young voters.
This creates an opening for China, already Bangladesh’s largest arms supplier and a major backer of infrastructure and energy projects. Their closeness was highlighted when the interim government’s chief advisor, Mohammed Younis, went there on an important foreign trip, taking a break from the standard practice of visiting India first.
None of this means China won. Geography alone ensures that India remains indispensable. But in a country where voters are no longer happy to be treated as geopolitical pawns, both New Delhi and Beijing will need to compete harder for goodwill.
Diversifying political partners is prudent. Bangladesh recently deepened its defense relations with Pakistan, a move that angered India. The two countries have resumed direct trade for the first time since the 1971 war that led to Bangladesh’s independence, while military officials have also resumed regular contacts.
The new leader needs to balance these powerful nations without becoming dependent on them. If successful, the strategic map of South Asia will be redefined. And whether he can offer his young voters a more hopeful future will determine whether this political reset stabilizes the country or fuels another cycle of unrest.
