November’s inflation report is the first to be released after the shutdown
People shop at a grocery store in Brooklyn, New York, on December 12, 2025.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images
Wall Street is awaiting the November consumer price index report to be released on Thursday; The report would mark the first inflation reading investors will get since the end of last month’s record-breaking U.S. government shutdown.
The report, which tracks the average change in prices people pay for a range of goods and services, is expected to show the 12-month inflation rate at 3.1%, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones. Excluding food and energy, core CPI is expected to increase by 3.0% annually.
Bureau of Labor Statistics he said Because the agency canceled its October inflation report in late November, weeks before the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year, the release “will not include 1-month percentage changes for November 2025, for which October 2025 data is missing.” CPI data for September – the last CPI report to be published and the only economic data released during the shutdown – showed an annual reading of 3.0% for headline and key measures.
“The psychological distinction between two-handles and three-handles is going to be very important,” José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said in an interview with CNBC.
While the consensus forecast shows the annual rate reaching the 3% threshold for the month, the senior economist expects the headline and core readings to be lower than expected at 2.9% each, but thinks the likely range of outcomes for the headline could be between that figure and 3.1%.
If the report shows a reading of 2.9%, it could offer some positive momentum for stocks heading into 2026. In fact, Torres believes such a figure would pave the way for a so-called Santa Claus rally. He also thinks it will have an impact on next year’s interest rate outlook, a period when the Fed anticipates a rate cut.
“If we can keep inflation at two rather than triple it, it will actually strengthen expectations of monetary policy easing in the final inflation report for 2025 – the CPI report – because that will allow for further rate cuts next year,” said Torres. he added.
Not a ‘clean’ report
While this announcement helps pave the way for a year-end rally, other catalysts need to be in place for it to happen, as others like Crossmark Global Investments’ Victoria Fernandez don’t think a 0.1 percentage point move in either direction would lead to a “massive” market reaction. He also thinks Fed policymakers will still be in there. Even with a 2.9% reading, it’s wait-and-see mode.
“I think it’s going to vary. It’s not going to be a clean CPI number,” the company’s chief market strategist said, citing the lack of month-to-month data as a factor and exactly when the BLS might start collecting November data as a factor.
US President Donald Trump signed the funding bill that will end the US government shutdown at the White House in Washington DC on November 12, 2025.
Kevin Lamarque | Reuters
President Donald Trump officially signed a funding bill into law on November 12, reopening the government after a 43-day shutdown, the longest in U.S. history. This caused the BLS to withdraw its November CPI report from the previously scheduled December 10 date.
“By the time the government actually opened up and started collecting data, we were almost halfway through November, so you only get the last half of the month,” Fernandez said. “You have to start wondering: ‘Is there some kind of bias in what prices are doing and how things are doing between the second half of the month and the beginning of the month?'”
The strategist thinks the overall theme will ultimately be that inflation “remains high” and does not return to 2% as some have predicted.
“We have tremendous uncertainty about where we go from here because we have conflicting stories,” Fernandez said. “We could have weak trends in unemployment, weak household income, weak consumer spending, and then have expectations for 14% earnings growth and strong income next year. Not all the pieces of the puzzle fit together.”
“We need more information before we can make an accurate statement about what it will be like in the long term,” he continued.
