China birthrate shrinks to lowest on record as policies fail to to lift births
Tangshan, China – January 01: A nurse feeds a newborn baby at a maternal and child health hospital on the first day of 2026 on January 1, 2026 in Tangshan, Hebei Province, China. (Photo: Zhu Dayong/VCG via Getty Images)
Zhu Dayong | Visual China Group | Getty Images
China’s birth rate fell to a record low last year; This has underlined a deepening demographic crisis as Beijing struggles to reverse its shrinking and aging population.
According to data dating back to the 1950s compiled by Wind Information, the birth rate dropped from 6.4 in 2023 to 5.6 per 1,000 people in 2025. This was the lowest level in history.
Approximately 7.9 million babies were born last year; This number is much less than before. 9.5 million a year agodata from the statistics office Despite Beijing’s efforts to encourage larger families by expanding subsidies and expanding parental leave, it showed on Monday.
Although the country began easing its strict one-child policy almost a decade ago, the birth rate has continued to fall, except for a brief spike in 2024, when it rose to 6.77 per 1,000 people. The increase has been attributed to the Year of the Dragon, which is traditionally considered an auspicious time for having children.
“The speed of the decline is remarkable, especially in the absence of major shocks,” said Yue Su, chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
He added that the support provided by fertility incentive measures has decreased, and young people are postponing their plans to marry and have children due to increasing economic pressures and intensifying competition in the workplace.
Policymakers have introduced various incentives, including cash rewards and tax breaks for households with children under 3 years old. Beijing also extended maternity leave from 98 days to 158 days in 2024.
China faces a looming population crisis as its elderly population grows. The share of the population aged 60 and over increased from 22% in 2024 to 23% in 2025.
The population fell for the fourth year, falling by 3.4 million last year to 1.405 billion. statistics bureau.
Economists have warned that a shrinking workforce and aging population pose major economic risks. Fewer babies mean less workforce to support a rapidly growing group of retirees in the future, increasing pressure on an already strained pension system. It could also force higher social security contributions and restrict disposable income for younger workers.
“Depopulation means a smaller consumer base in the future, increasing the risk of wider supply-demand imbalances,” Su said, calling for a stronger policy response to fertility. he said.
World Bank data showed that the fertility rate, defined as births per woman, fell to 1 in China in 2023, the most recent year available, below the global average of 2.2.
