Dry Days Ahead: Monsoon likely to be below normal
The monsoon core region, which includes rain-fed agricultural areas in particular, is likely to receive below normal rainfall with less than 94% of the LPA, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said, raising concerns over pulses and oilseed production during the main planting season, potentially affecting farmer incomes and broader consumption as well as creating inflationary pressure on the economy.
“Monsoon rainfall from June to September will be ‘below normal’ and is likely to be 90% of the long-term average,” Ministry of Earth Sciences secretary M Ravichandran said at a media briefing, referring to the IMD forecast.
The government agency expects rainfall during the June-September monsoon season to be less than 92% LPA in northwest India and less than 94% LPA in central India and the southern peninsula. However, northeastern India is expected to receive rainfall in the range of 94-106% of LPA.
IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the southwest monsoon is expected to reach the extreme parts of the south Indian peninsula and parts of northeastern India in the next seven days.
Farm Output Concerns
According to the weather office, ENSO-neutral conditions are currently evolving towards El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, indicating El Niño conditions are developing during the southeast monsoon season.
India receives 75-80% of its annual rainfall during the four-month monsoon season, which accounts for more than half of its food grain production. For major monsoon or kharif crops such as paddy, cotton, pulses and oilseeds, the distribution and timing of rainfall is critical as any inconsistency in rainfall can adversely affect planting decisions. Below-average rainfall could constrain farm production, accelerate food inflation and negatively impact farmer incomes, squeezing demand for FMCG, motorcycles, tractors and other goods in rural India.
IMD’s latest forecast comes at a time of intense turmoil in the global economy, particularly affecting countries like India due to the Iran war.
The war severely disrupted supply chains and caused increases in input costs across industries. Inadequate rainfall will deal another blow to farmers, who may face interruptions in fertilizer supplies.
In June, above-normal heatwave conditions are expected in isolated parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, as well as parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. Below normal heatwave days are expected in Rajasthan and Jharkhand.
