gold investment opportunities after price drop: Will gold triple in 2026? Why investors placed massive bets after gold’s historic price correction
Gold Price Crash 2026: What Triggered the 11% One-Day Crash?
When gold futures in New York surpassed $5,600 an ounce in late January and fell sharply the next day, it shook the market. On Jan. 30, Comex gold futures fell 11%, marking the biggest one-day loss in decades, according to a report. This wasn’t the first shock either. Prices fell to $4,000 per ounce after reaching close to $4,500 in October.
Why Are Investors Betting $15,000 on Gold Despite the Correction?
But instead of retreating, at least one investor or group made a bold move.
Traders began accumulating $15,000/$20,000 call spreads on CME Group’s Comex exchange in December as prices pulled back and later consolidated around $5,000, according to a Bloomberg report. The position has since grown to nearly 11,000 contracts.
This is a striking bet. For these options to expire in the money, gold would need to nearly triple by the end of the year.
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Is $15,000 Gold Possible in 2026? What the Options Market Recommends
“It is surprising to see such open interest in such deep out-of-the-money call spreads, especially in the wake of the technical correction,” said Aakash Doshi, head of global gold and metals strategy at State Street Investment Management, as quoted by Bloomberg. “It is plausible that some traders see this as a cheap lottery ticket.”
What Drives Gold’s Rise Since 2024?
The timing is remarkable. Gold’s recent rally was driven by speculative buying that pushed prices into overbought territory. Despite this, many banks continue to predict that the rise will continue. Gold prices have doubled since the beginning of 2024, driven by persistent geopolitical tensions, questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve and a broader move away from currencies and government bonds.
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How Do Gold Call Spreads Work and Why Do Investors Use Them?
The structure of the trade also limits risk. Call spreads allow investors to position for upside at a lower upfront cost than outright put contracts, but they limit potential gains. Investors can close out contracts if December futures recover and spreads appreciate, or hold them until expiration if prices rise above $15,000 per ounce.
Gold’s Implied Volatility Rises After Massive Options Activity
Doshi noted that if the expectation is for a “more severe rise in the short term,” investors could sell the spread before time loss significantly erodes its value, as there are still months left until expiration.
Although gold is far from the levels that would trigger these contracts, the trades have already affected the options market. While upside calls saw an increase in implied volatility last week, many other options have become relatively cheap.
Are Golden Bulls Preparing for Another Explosive Rally?
Meanwhile, gold’s call skew, the premium investors pay to bet on price appreciation rather than decline, is getting cheaper throughout the final months of February. However, realized price volatility remains high and the market still has the potential for large “gap” moves.
For now, gold is trading well below $15,000. But the growing pile of out-of-the-money call spreads shows that despite historic volatility, some investors are still willing to place big bets on a spectacular rally.
FAQ
Why did gold fall so hard in January?
Comex gold futures fell 11% in one day, marking the biggest one-day loss in decades.
What’s the $15,000 gold bet all about?
Investors are buying December forward call spreads that will pay off only if gold rises to $15,000.
