Gold surges past $5,000 to a fresh record

Gold climbed to an all-time high, surpassing $5,000 an ounce on Monday, continuing its record-breaking run as investors sought the safety of the yellow metal amid rising geopolitical tensions and global financial risks.

Spot gold prices and US gold futures for February were up 1.2% at $5,042 and $5,036 per ounce, respectively.

The precious metal’s rise comes as recent flashpoints from Greenland and Venezuela to the Middle East point to high geopolitical risk and reinforce gold’s appeal as a hedge against uncertainty.

“The recent rise in gold and silver prices follows geoeconomic issues related to Greenland,” HSBC said in a note last week. he wrote.

Silver also rebounded on Monday; spot prices rose 3% to $106.1 per ounce, also benefiting from industrial demand.

Prices are rising thanks to sustained demand from both institutional and retail buyers, analysts at Union Bancaire Privée said on Friday.

“We expect gold to have another strong year with a year-end target price of US$5,200 per ounce, reflecting continued central bank and retail investment demand,” UBP said.

Goldman Sachs sees the demand base for gold expanding beyond traditional channels. Newer tools used to hedge macro policy risks, including brick-and-mortar purchases by high-net-worth families, have become an increasingly important source of demand, with Western ETF holdings rising by nearly 500 tonnes since the start of 2025.

The investment bank recently raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce from $4,900; He suggested that hedges against global macro and policy risks had become “sticky”, effectively removing the starting point for gold prices this year.

Central bank purchases also remain strong. Goldman estimates that central bank purchases now average around 60 tonnes per month, well above the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes, as emerging market central banks continue to shift reserves into gold.

Importantly, the bank assumes that hedges against global macro policy risks, including concerns about fiscal sustainability, will remain in place through 2026, unlike election-related hedges that quickly unraveled following the US vote in late 2024.

“We assume hedges for global macro policy risks will remain stable, as these perceived risks (e.g. fiscal sustainability) may not fully resolve in 2026,” Goldman said in a statement last week. he said.