GOP Senate majority could be at risk in 2026 midterms, warns Tim Scott

As the GOP defends its 53-47 majority in the chamber in this year’s midterm elections, the Senate Republican campaign chairman issued a stern warning to his party.

National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chairman Tim Scott pointed to a polling gap the GOP faced in the last election Fox News national pollHe said this could affect certain Senate races this year.

And Scott said the toughest fight may be in Maine, where longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins is running for re-election to a sixth six-year term in the blue-leaning northern New England state.

Scott’s frank remarks at a closed-door meeting with GOP senators earlier this week come as Republicans, as the party in power in the nation’s capital, face traditional political headwinds in the midterm elections. The GOP also faces a tough political climate with President Donald Trump‘s Approval ratings remain underwater as Democrats gain energy as they work to regain the House majority and possibly recapture the Senate.

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While the NRSC remains optimistic they will be able to not only defend but expand their majority, the GOP will play defense in a half-dozen key races.

Here’s a look at the most vulnerable Republican Senate seats in the midterm elections.

Maine

Collins is the only Republican senator running for re-election this year in the state where then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried her defeat to Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

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And Collins has seen a deterioration in her poll numbers with Mainers since her last re-election six years ago.

But Collins, long the main target of the rival Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC), has proven difficult to beat.

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, leaves the chamber at the Capitol in Washington on July 24, 2025. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo)

Complicating Democrats’ effort to flip the seat are longtime Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and two-term Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, who has the tacit support of the DSCC, as well as progressive champion Sen. Sen. of Vermont, who runs to Mill’s left. It is a competitive primary between veteran and oyster farmer Graham Platner, who is backed by Bernie Sanders.

North Carolina

With GOP Sen. Thom Tillis retiring at the end of this year, Republicans are defending an open seat in the battleground state in the southeast.

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Democrats have their top candidate when former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper launched his Senate campaign last summer. Cooper has tons of name ID in North Carolina and is 6-0 in statewide races.

Republicans are rallying around former Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairman Michael Whatley, who has the president’s support.

RNC Chairman Michael Whatley announces his candidacy for North Carolina Senator on July 31, 2025 in Gastonia, NC (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)

The race is expected to be one of the most expensive and competitive Senate matchups this year.

Ohio

Democrats scored another major recruiting victory when longtime incumbent former Sen. Sherrod Brown announced he would challenge Republican Sen. Jon Husted.

Husted, a former lieutenant governor, was appointed to the Senate a year before then-Sen. J.D. Vance resigned to serve as vice president.

Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, who was appointed to fill the seat of current Vice President J.D. Vance, is heading into the midterms to serve out the final two years of Vance’s term. (Getty Images)

Ohio, once a primary general election battleground, has turned red over the past decade, and Democrats view Brown as the only competitive candidate in the race to serve the final two years of Vance’s term.

Brown loses re-election in 2024 by roughly four points, while Trump trails Ohio by 11 points.

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Similar to North Carolina, the showdown is expected to be very expensive and competitive.

Alaska

Democrats were given a big boost in the red-leaning state when former Rep. Mary Peltola announced last month that she would challenge GOP incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan.

Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, is running for reelection in this year’s midterm elections. (Allison Robbert/AFP via Getty Images)

Peltola lost re-election in the statewide district by three points last year, while Trump edged Alaska by 11 points.

Iowa

Republicans are defending an open seat in Iowa, once a swing state that has moved to the right over the past decade.

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But the GOP has rallied around Trump-backed Rep. Ashley Hinson in the race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson of Iowa, who is running in the 2026 race to win over retiring GOP Sen. Joni Ernst, sits down for a Fox News Digital interview in Washington, D.C., on September 4, 2025 (Paul Steinhauser – Fox News)

Hinson, a former local TV news anchor who flipped the Democratic-held seat in 2020, is seen as a rising star in the party.

The Democratic primary includes State Rep. Josh Turek, Paralympian, State Sen. Zach Wahls and military veteran Nathan Sage.

Texas

Longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas is in the midst of a competitive and heated GOP nomination battle against State Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt.

Trump has so far remained neutral in the primaries to be held early next month.

Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, faces a combustible GOP primary as he seeks re-election in this year’s midterm elections. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc. via Getty Images)

If Cornyn, Paxton and Hunt fail to win a majority of votes next month, a runoff election will be held in May.

Cornyn has the support of Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the NRSC; That leaves Paxton, who has too much political baggage, worried that the seat will be vulnerable if he wins the primary.

Democrats eyeing the seat in the right-leaning state are facing a competitive race for the nomination between Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a progressive and fierce Trump critic, and state Rep. James Talarico, the party’s rising star.

GOP on offense

While advocating, the NRSC is also monitoring three Democratic-held Senate seats.

The GOP is aiming to flip battleground seats Michigan, where Sen. Gary Peters retired, and New Hampshire, where longtime Sen. Jeanne Shaheen ended her long history-making career as the first female governor and senator elected.

Republicans are also looking to the battleground state of Georgia, where they see first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff as the most vulnerable Democrat seeking re-election this year.

The NRSC also highlights the open Senate seat in blue-leaning Minnesota, where Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is retiring.

Former longtime sportscaster Michele Tafoya is backed by the NRSC as she runs for the GOP nomination.

Michele Tafoya interviews Fox News Digital as she launches the Republican Senate campaign in Minnesota (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)

Some Republicans are calling last weekend’s double-digit bombardment in Texas’ special state Senate elections, which Trump carried by 17 points in 2024, a wake-up call.

The stunning ballot box defeat for Republicans amid a backlash against the Trump administration’s unprecedented crackdown on illegal immigration is further energizing Democrats as they aim to regain their congressional majority.

The victory in Texas was the latest victory or outperformance by Democrats in a series of elections since Trump took power in the White House a year ago; because the party was laser-focused on affordability amid persistent inflation.

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“The White House needs to focus less on foreign policy and immigration and more on affordability to improve our chances in the midterms,” oil drilling CEO and prominent Republican donor and bundler Dan Eberhart told Fox News Digital.

And Eberhart said he’s concerned about the “money game,” pointing to some key Senate races.

“We’re unfortunately behind in Georgia. We’re behind in North Carolina. I think someone in Texas will limp out of the second round,” he warned.

“Democrats are targeting some of our incumbents. So we have some races in places like Maine and North Carolina that are going to be expensive and hard-fought,” Thune told reporters after the NRSC briefing this week.

But Thune added: “We feel really good about where our Senate races are.” And he emphasized, “The officials in our conference are seasoned veterans who will work better than their opponents.”

Meanwhile, DSCC Chairman Sen. “President Trump is creating a toxic agenda that is hurting people,” Kirsten Gillibrand told Fox News Digital last month.

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Gillibrand also emphasized that she was “optimistic that we have a chance to get the majority back.”