Gorton and Denton by-election: Why this ‘forgotten’ corner of Manchester could signal a turning point in British politics
gOrton and Denton is a two-halves constituency.
To the east, on the Gorton side, are various suburbs of the city of Manchester, which are home to large student and Muslim populations.
Meanwhile, Denton, in the Tameside borough, is a mostly working-class post-industrial town with a much older population that is almost 91 percent white. Once a center of textile manufacturing and coal mining, this town, like many towns in the North West, is bearing the brunt of deindustrialisation.
These two very different regions make up the 15th poorest part of the country, where the challenges of living in modern Britain are clearly evident. Neighboring regions share a sense of frustration bordering on anger.
Voters in the constituency will head to the polls on Thursday for a tough by-election; This could lift the curtain on Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership and have a lasting impact on the structure of British politics.
This constituency and its earlier versions have long been a brick in Labour’s Red Wall. Even when Boris Johnson persuaded large numbers of Labor voters to back his Conservative Party with his promise to “get Brexit done”, voters here remained loyal to the region’s political traditions.
But the frustration felt among residents could herald a new political era that will redefine the age-old struggle between left and right.
The then-Labor MP Andrew Gwynne, now retired, was elected by 13,000 votes in the 2024 general election; He came second and third, ahead of Reform UK and the Green Party.
The runners-up’s seats are now well and truly in front of their eyes. Labor has a lot to lose and faces a fierce fight to hang on.
Voters told Independent They feel let down by Sir Keir’s government. They feel they have long been forgotten by a party to which these voters have always been loyal and whom they helped elect 19 months ago.
There is no love lost for the Prime Minister and his decision to block popular Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham from standing as the Labor candidate has failed badly.
Taxi driver Mohammed Basharat, 61, from Levenshulme on the Gorton side, said he would vote for the Green Party, partly out of disappointment with Labour.
“They’ve disappointed a lot of people; they’ve raised taxes, they’ve cut benefits, there’s a lot of things they’ve done,” he said.
“People are not happy. You talk to people on the street, the British people, they are not happy.”
Mobile hairdresser Caterina Pandolfo, 65, said there was a feeling that Gorton and Denton had been “forgotten.” “I think it’s pretty sad,” he said. “It got worse.” He had hoped that the Labor government could go some way towards addressing this problem, but he does not believe it has done so.
He said: “Unfortunately I don’t think he’s in very good shape, Keir Starmer. He could have done so much.”
John Harrison, 71, and Sheila Harrison, 69, lifelong Labor voters in Denton, said they would not vote for the party again.
Describing Britain as “decadent”, Sheila said Sir Keir did not represent towns like his but would vote for Mr Burnham.
For John, this is a case of broken promises.
“The Labor Party is not actually doing what they said they would do in the manifesto,” he said, adding that he felt let down by the government.
Yet just one change in Labor could win them back. “I would vote for Andy Burnham,” John said.
He said Mr Burnham had more personality and was able to connect with northern voters. He believes the Greater Manchester mayor is on his side, unlike Sir Keir, whom he describes as “distant”. Sheila agreed.
Hoping to capitalize on this feeling of abandonment at the heart of Labor are the Reform UK candidate – UK News presenter Matthew Goodwin – and the Greens candidate Hannah Spencer.
Independent He requested an interview with Mr Goodwin and contacted Reform for comment.
Independent In an unearthed blog post, Mr Goodwin revealed he suggested childless people should be taxed extra as a penalty and called for a “biological reality” check on women and young girls as he gave his views on how the UK should deal with the looming “fertility crisis”.
While polls suggest Mr Goodwin is expected to do well in Denton, support for Ms Spencer, a plumber and councilor in Gorton, is clear from posters and signs on display.
Ms Spencer believes the by-election is the start of a new battle between left and right in British politics – now represented by her own party and Nigel Farage’s Reform rather than Labor and the Conservatives.
“I think people are rejecting the old two-party system of politics and looking for an alternative,” he said. Independent.
“What has happened in the last few years shows that change in the political system can happen quite quickly.”
Ms Spencer believes Labour’s damaging spell in power has made this situation worse. Although the party has seen a recent surge in national opinion polls, it is still on the Reform path and the prime minister’s approval ratings remain low.
“I felt like Labor was being given one last chance at the last general election,” he said, adding: “They ran under the banner of change and has anything really changed?”
Ms. Spencer believes this feeling is particularly acute in such an area.
He said: “It hurts more when you feel like you’re falling in love with the person who’s going to help you.”
Labor candidate councilor Angeliki Stogia insisted she could hand the seat to Mr Goodwin if anyone other than her votes, as she defends her party’s record in government.
He said: “We are fighting at every door in terms of reform. We have policies, we are listening to the residents and what they want, and what they want is real action.”
“They don’t want to shout from the sidelines. The main issues people are bringing up are the cost of living, the issues surrounding neighborhoods and communities.”
“I am the person who will carry out this in the best way possible,” he added.
On criticism of the government’s record, he said: “I understand that and the prime minister has said we need to go faster and we need to go deeper into delivering these changes.
“We’ve been in government for 18 months. It takes a long time for things to change.”
Last May, just 35 miles from Runcorn and Helsby, Reform’s Sarah Pochin was elected by just six votes. There is a suggestion that Labor and the Green Party could split the vote on the left here, opening the door for Reform to win another seat in the region.
But when asked whether the two parties could form a progressive alliance, Ms. Spencer was uninterested.
“I certainly don’t see them as a progressive force,” he said.
“I think they’re so far removed from who they’ve been that I’m really having a hard time understanding how they could be someone we could work with, even if they made some changes.”
Instead, he believes party leader Zack Polanski should keep his eye on Downing Street.
“I think it is absolutely possible that we will face a Green government at the next general election,” he said.
“I think the number of new members we’ve brought on in the last six months, the number of people coming out to help with elections like this, we’ve shown that there’s a real appetite for change.”
But what Ms. Spencer and Ms. Stogia agree on is Reform. Asked about the chances of Nigel Farage’s party winning in this constituency, Ms Stogia said: “I don’t think people’s voices will be listened to.
“I think division will take root in our communities and I think a Reform MP will not lean in, listen and work with communities to solve the problems in the area.”
For Ms Spencer, a vote for the Greens is a vote for “hope” rather than “division” with Reformation.
“This is a really diverse constituency, made up of different people from many different backgrounds, but with a shared value of looking after each other,” he said.
“It’s a Greater Manchester thing where people mix things up, even if you believe in slightly different things, like sometimes you look out for each other.”
