U.S. arrest of Maduro sparks ‘might makes right’ fears
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands during a meeting at the Miraflores Presidential Palace in Caracas on July 20, 2014.
Leo Ramírez | Afp | Getty Images
Ancient Greek historian Thucydides once wrote: “The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must.” On January 3, the United States appeared to repeat this maxim by launching an attack on Venezuela and arresting President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in a lightning raid.
The pair were sent to New York to face drug and terrorism charges, drawing sharp criticism from foreign governments over the legality of the attack. The operation also reignited debate about whether Washington is reviving a world where might makes right.
Quantum Strategy’s David Roche told CNBC that the operation could weaken U.S. arguments against similar actions by rivals.
“If Donald Trump can enter a country and take it over… then why is Putin wrong about Ukraine and why does China have no right to take over Taiwan?” Roche said.
In its recent statement, the United States asserted what it called the “Trump Consequence.” National Security StrategyIt revives the Monroe Doctrine of the 1820s, when the United States had domain on the so-called “Western Hemisphere”.
Sphere of influence refers to the region where a powerful country attempts to dominate political, military, or economic decisions without formally annexing the territory.
This concept reflects Roosevelt’s conclusion, which historically justified US intervention in Latin America.
a statement United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that he was “deeply concerned about the lack of compliance with the rules of international law” and described the developments in Venezuela as a “dangerous precedent”.
Roche warned that the action could lead to unintended consequences. “On the one hand, you have created a set of threats, and on the other hand, you have created a set of permissions for any dictatorial, autocratic regime that wants to seize territory that is currently outside its scope.”
Taiwan question
Attention in Asia has turned to whether China could be encouraged to increase pressure on Taiwan, which Beijing considers part of its territory.
China held live-fire drills around Taiwan in December, framing them as a warning against foreign intervention.
New Year’s speechChinese President Xi Jinping has declared Taiwan’s unification “unstoppable,” echoing US intelligence assessments that Beijing could attempt to seize the island by force as soon as this decade.
Ryan Hass, a former US diplomat and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, cautioned against drawing direct parallels.
“There will be an impulse among foreign policy analysts to draw analogies to Taiwan and warn that Trump could set a precedent that Beijing could use against Taiwan. I would caution against this impulse.” wrote to x.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (R), Chinese President Xi Jinping (R), Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro (L) and other leaders lay flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier during Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, Russia, May 9, 2015.
Sasha Mordovets | Getty Images News | Getty Images
China has avoided direct military action against Taiwan, saying it does not respect international law or norms, instead relying on a strategy of pressure rather than violence, Hass said.
“Rather than taking inspiration from today’s events to change its approach toward Taiwan, Beijing will focus more on protecting its interests, condemning U.S. actions, and sharpening its antagonism with the United States in the international system,” Hass wrote.
chinese ministry of foreign affairs, In the statement made after the attack, he stated that he was “deeply shocked and strongly condemned by the US’s blatant use of force against a sovereign state and its action against its president.”
Beijing called the attack a “hegemonic act” and called on Washington to “stop violating the sovereignty and security of other countries.”
“The Trump administration is more comfortable with the influence of major powers like China and Russia than any American administration in recent memory,” said Marko Papic, chief macro-geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.
But he added that this does not mean that Washington is happy with these countries expanding their orbits.
Also speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” program, Papic said that the Trump administration does not appear to be “abandoning” Taiwan, pointing to the $11 billion arms sales that Taiwan announced in December.
The United States does not have a common defense agreement with Taiwan, but Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 He stated that Washington is committed to providing the necessary weapons for Taiwan’s self-defense.
The rules are for you, not for me
Evan Feigenbaum of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that the United States would likely deny China its sphere of influence while maintaining its own.
Feigenbaum wrote of
“Let’s not pretend that the US is consistent and that the contradictions and hypocrisy in US foreign policy are nothing,” he added in a separate article.
BCA Research’s Papic said time was on China’s side, adding that it did not need to act immediately on Taiwan, while the United States would likely focus on the “Western Hemisphere.”
“Why risk the entire Western world uniting against this? [China] By effectively trying to reunify militarily with Taiwan in January 2026? “Why take the risk when time will be on China’s side in the next 10 years, while the United States continues to focus less on the near abroad and the world at large?”
— CNBC’s Chery Kang, Martin Soong and Amitoj Singh contributed to this report.
