Gulf countries warn of rising threat from Iran-backed militias and proxies | US-Israel war on Iran

Gulf countries have expressed concern about the possibility of attacks by Iran-backed militias and proxy armed groups in the region; They fear that these attacks will destabilize their regimes and escalate the war in the Middle East.

In a joint statement this week, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Jordan condemned Iran’s attacks on their territory, both directly from Iran and “through its proxies and armed groups they support in the region.”

Kuwait on Wednesday said it had foiled a plot to kill state leaders and arrested six suspects believed to be linked to Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy group.

For decades, Iran has used proxy militias as a mainstay of its foreign and security policy, a way to export its revolution, expand its regional influence and destabilize enemy countries. The most prominent examples are Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen; However, other brutal and effective Iran-backed militias also operate in Iraq and Syria.

While relations between Iran and countries such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have gone through a process of increasing cooperation and rapprochement in recent years, these proxy groups in the Gulf have remained largely silent, apart from the internal turmoil in neighboring Iraq.

But since the United States and Israel began bombing Iran in late February, the brunt of Iran’s retaliation has been directed at Gulf states that have close ties to Washington and host numerous American military bases.

In addition to the thousands of missiles and drone strikes launched from Iran, a growing number of domestic incidents linked to armed groups and militias known as proxy groups of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are also occurring in the region, raising fears that Iran may begin to mobilize sleeper cells as weapons of war in the Gulf.

Signs are increasing that the Gulf countries are trying to prevent all kinds of proxy activities by Iran. In early March, Qatar announced that it had arrested two cells containing more than 10 people linked to the Iranian regime. Bahrain later arrested several people it accused of spying for Iran, while Kuwait this week said it had foiled a major Hezbollah-linked cell involved in plots targeting national security.

Gulf countries said in a joint statement on Thursday that Iranian-backed militias, generally known to operate in Iraq, carried out a series of attacks against them and that these attacks harmed the country’s security.

The following statements were made in the statement: “In order to preserve brotherly relations and prevent further escalation of tension, we call on the Iraqi government to take the necessary measures to immediately stop the attacks of groups, militias and armed groups from Iraqi territory against neighboring countries.”

The threat posed by these groups is seen as particularly worrying for countries such as Saudi Arabia, where Iran-backed militia group Hezbollah Al Hejaz has carried out violent attacks in the country, and Bahrain, which has long accused Iran of establishing proxy cells in the country. Saudi Arabia is also still in conflict with the Houthis, another Iranian proxy, in Yemen. The Houthis have so far said they would stay away from the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Analysts emphasized that the presence and danger of Iran’s proxy groups in the Gulf had not reached levels anywhere near those during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, when militant cells attacked Kuwait and were active in Saudi Arabia, but warned that the threat would become greater as the conflict with Iran dragged on.

Bilal Saab, senior managing director at the Trends US think tank and a former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration, said: “The worst-case scenario for the Gulf states if this war escalates is that Iran activates its sleeper cells and Shiite militia movements in the region.

“We haven’t seen them fully mobilize against the threat yet, but there are some signs of dormant cells becoming active and arrests in states like Kuwait and the UAE. If things really escalate, we could see a lot more.”

Saab said concerns about Iran’s Revolutionary Guard activating these networks are also an important consideration for Gulf countries considering whether to adopt a more aggressive approach against Iran’s attacks, which would risk further provoking the regime in Tehran. The greatest fear of leaders in the Gulf was a situation similar to that in Iraq, where Iran’s proxy groups were now so powerful and deeply rooted that they operated almost as a “state within a state.”

“I think this is the number one existential threat to the Gulf countries,” Saab said. “They’re already fighting the external threat posed by Iran’s missiles and drones, but things really fall apart when they also have to fight an internal enemy. Then they face a war on two fronts.”