Gulf states rethink security in light of US-Israel war on Iran | Middle East and north Africa

Gulf states will seek to add security partners as they rebuild their battered economies after the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran and deal with an emboldened Tehran.

The Gulf will have to live with the continuing threat from the regime in Iran and its remaining missile arsenal. American bases on its territory made Iran a target, as it retaliated against the joint attack of the USA and Israel.

But countries say they cannot tolerate Iran retaining control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which most trade passes. Iran, which agreed to a ceasefire this week, has insisted it will retain control of the waterway during the war, which would allow Tehran to curtail the Gulf at will. The future of the strait will be one of the main disputes to be negotiated in talks between the United States and Iran that will begin on Friday in Islamabad.

Gulf states have shown they can defend themselves by touting their success in largely thwarting Iran’s barrage of missiles and drones during the five weeks of the conflict.

But experts say countries remain divided on future relations with Iran, with a hawkish faction led by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain taking a tougher stance and other countries hoping for peace through renewed ties with Tehran.

Iranian state media said on Wednesday that the UAE was likely behind the attack on oil facilities on Lavan Island hours after the ceasefire was declared, and that Iran responded. This would be the only known offensive action carried out by a Gulf country in the conflict. UAE did not comment.

Saudi Arabia and Iran on Thursday held their first official contacts since the start of the conflict, with a call between the two foreign ministers “discussing ways to reduce tensions to restore security and stability in the region.”

Kuwait University professor Bader Mousa Al-Saif said the Gulf should reconsider its security by establishing partnerships with countries such as Türkiye and other middle powers, rather than relying solely on the United States. He said that in order to reset the economic foundations, the region must now move away from the constantly emerging danger of conflict.

“All countries in the region need to rethink the model,” Al-Saif said. “The question is how to insulate the region as a whole from falling into a war that will last forever.”

Countries such as Türkiye and Pakistan, which have large and capable armies, seem likely to play a greater role in the Gulf. There were moves in this direction before the war.

In recent months, Saudi Arabia signed a defense agreement with Pakistan and the UAE announced a defense partnership with India. During this conflict, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar hastily signed defense agreements with Ukraine to eliminate the threat from Iranian drones.

There are calls for a “Muslim NATO”, but this idea is considered unlikely. In March, a new harmony emerged in Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Egypt and Pakistan: “Step”. However, the rivalry between these countries and the lack of clarity whether they protect against Iran or Israel complicate the relationship. Türkiye and Pakistan share borders with Iran and do not want to see conflict with Tehran.

Britain, which helped defend Gulf skies during the war, may also be involved. Keir Starmer, who arrived in Jeddah on Wednesday, discussed with the Saudi crown prince “how the UK and Saudi Arabia can further deepen their defense industry cooperation to increase capacity and mutual security.”

Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a professor of political science at the UAE, said he expects security ties with the United States to deepen and others to join the UAE in relations with Israel, a partnership that includes military and intelligence ties.

The UAE was hit hardest by Iran, which targeted 2,256 drones and more than 563 missiles, with more than 90% of them captured, according to officials. This compared to approximately 850 rounds fired by Iran at Israel.

“Iran has become the number one enemy of the UAE and other Arab countries in the last 40 days,” Abdulla said. “With this kind of public enemy number one, you really need to be on alert 24 hours a day, seven days a week.”

Saudi Arabia is in a better position to recover because of its oil pipeline and Red Sea ports, the size of its territory and because its energy infrastructure has not been hit as hard as other Gulf countries, said Yasmine Farouk, Gulf project director at the International Crisis Group think tank. But rebuilding costs could impact Riyadh’s goal of diversifying its economy by 2030.

Faruk said, “Saudi Arabia has strategic depth and resources that need to be saved. Its geography helped this a lot.”

Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at King’s College London, said the Gulf would not seek to replace American protection but instead aim to layer on security partnerships with other countries, particularly Europe. He expected Gulf countries to invest more in air and missile defense, strengthening ports and desalination plants, maritime surveillance and alternative export routes.

“The United States is still the only outside power with a real military architecture in the Gulf, but it now appears to many Gulf leaders to be an unreliable and very expensive provider of security in a relationship in which the Gulf often pays heavy costs and still risks retaliation,” Krieg said. “The bases will remain, but they look less like shields and more like tripwires.”