How U.S.-Israel attack on Iran could impact millions of Indian migrant workers

As tensions escalate following the US-Israeli military attacks on Iran, and concerns about oil supply and transportation through the Strait of Hormuz increase, evacuation and rescue efforts have begun for Indians stranded in West Asia. Indian airlines, including IndiGo, Air India and Air India Express, are operating more than 12 special flights to cities in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to bring back passengers whose travel plans were disrupted due to the conflict.

But for India, the consequences of a protracted conflict in West Asia could extend beyond emergency evacuations or energy markets. The region is home to millions of Indian workers, and instability could impact migrant workers’ livelihoods and the money they send home each year.

Immigration permits, mandatory for Indians traveling to the Gulf and other designated countries for work, offer a reliable snapshot of the scale of India’s migrant worker presence in West Asia. They currently serve as a useful proxy for labor flows into the region when tracking new permits rather than the total number of workers abroad.

Between 2021 and 2025, more than 17 lakh Indians received such permits for Gulf-related work. Saudi Arabia alone accounted for 41 per cent of the permits, making it the largest destination among Gulf countries for Indian migrant workers during this period. The UAE came in second with 24% of permits, emerging as the top destination for blue-collar jobs in areas such as construction, healthcare, hospitality and tourism. Kuwait ranked third with a permit rate of 12%.

Money coming from Indians working abroad is one of the country’s important foreign exchange sources. Data from the Reserve Bank of India shows that the UAE maintains its position as the second largest source of India’s remittances after the US, with its share increasing from 18% in 2020-21 to 19.2% in 2023-24. Saudi Arabia contributed 6.7%, Kuwait 3.9%, Qatar 4.1% and Oman 2.5%.

States like Maharashtra, Kerala and Tamil Nadu account for the bulk of remittance flows from all countries to India. In 2023-24, Maharashtra received 20.5% of total remittances, followed by Kerala at 19.7% and Tamil Nadu at 10.4%. Telangana (8.1%) and Karnataka (7.7%) are also among the largest buyers.

These figures (migration permit and remittance data) together indicate the size of India’s migrant presence in the Gulf. The conflict, which started with the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran, has now become sharply regional. Iran’s retaliatory attacks targeted US bases and energy infrastructure in the Gulf, causing the closure of Qatar’s LNG facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed and Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery and export terminal, one of the world’s largest oil processing facilities. The Strait of Hormuz, through which almost one-fifth of the world’s oil passes, is now effectively closed to commercial shipping. This threatens not only the global fuel economy but also the livelihoods of millions of Indian migrant workers in the region.