Here are the 2 big things we’re watching in the stock market in the week ahead
Work data and policy updates will take the stage next week. As you leave a record -breaking week for the market, take a closer look at what to call in the holiday cort trade. 1. Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: The labor market will command the central stage for the next four transaction days. He loses the vapor, but he didn’t break up. Repetitive applications for unemployment insurance, known as continuous claims, are an indication of softening. These have been the highest levels since November 2021, which ended on June 14th, and has been higher in recent weeks. Investors closely follow the job data among the questions about the effects of the US economy on the health and federal reserve policy. FED President Jerome Powell said he believed that the US labor market was “strong” during the congress statement last week, but if weaken, “then these rates were cut earlier.” Despite President Donald Trump’s pressure on reducing Powell, FED did not change the policy because he expected more clarity on Trump’s tariffs on his inflationary influence. On Friday, the inflation indicator preferred by the FED for May, except for variable food and energy prices, a little warmer than expected. This week’s job data started on Tuesday morning with business openings and worker turnover survey. The so -called shaking report measures the amount of looseness in the labor market and provides clues about the power of the economy and potential wage inflation. If the amount of business openings exceeds the number of work too much, job seekers are often better to demand higher wages. According to Dow Jones, economists expect 7.4 million openness to 7.3 million in April. According to Dow Jones, Adp, a payroll processing company on Wednesday, will publish its monthly report on creating special employment with 120,000 additions. Release usually serves as a variety of appetizers for the US government’s official non -Farm payroll report, although not a direct reading. As we have seen with May reports, ADP was much weaker than expected, and it was concerned about what government business data will show among investors. It turned out that the silent estimates were a little above. The issue is that the ADP report may be a market movement for the crowd of traders, but it should be considered in the appropriate context and it should be considered as a data point in our greater understanding of where the labor market stands. The non -Farm payroll report is coming to us this week before normal this week, as the market is closed on Friday for Four July. According to Dow Jones, an estimation of consensus is that the US economy added 115,000 work in June, which will slow down from 139,000 in May. The unemployment rate is expected to crawl up to 4.3%, and the market will pay attention to the revision level in past reports. Although it is a common event, these updates make the latest business figures better. For example, in addition to the May report, April and March reports were revised by 95,000 lower. In addition, on Thursday, thanks to its frequency, the first weekly unemployed request report, which is a valuable data point for investors in the moments of labor market uncertainty. Instead of the need to wait a month for non -Farm payrolls, we buy it every week. To be sure, it is important to monitor the tendency in unemployed claims instead of putting too much stock in a given week. As stated, the ongoing claims are crawling, a sign that people have a more difficult time to hire after being allowed, so we will closely monitor this line of line in releasing Thursday. However, in the last two weeks, the first time applications fell from 250,000 to the beginning of June. According to Dow Jones, they took place at 246,000 a week on June 14th and 236,000 a week ending on June 21. Economists expect the end of the line with 240,000 consensus to release Thursday. 2. Policy Updates: Within a week, we will pay attention to any update from the White House for quiet on the earnings front and trade negotiations with other countries. We started to hear a few things at the end of last weekend, starting with the press secretary Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s mutual tariffs to enter into force 8 and July 9 “not critical”, Trump’s negotiations can expand the deadline, he added. This seems to be a reasonable result, but unpredictability is one of Trump’s distinguishing features. Trade Secretary Howard Lotnick said the US and China’s agreement in Geneva last month was finalized on Thursday evening. Later on Friday, Scott Besseng said that the Trump administration in Fox Business hopes to make agreements with the most important trade partners of the country with the most important trade partners of the country, which rely on the idea that the deadline can be thrown out. Speaking at the White House on Friday, Trump said, “We’ve probably made an agreement with four or five different countries,” but it is not clear which nations he’s talking about. Apart from China, the United States has announced an agreement with the UK on the negative side, Trump has increased its discourse against Canada on Friday, and ended its trade talks with the northern neighbor of America on digital service tax in US technology companies. The other Washington policy story to be watched next week is related to the expenditures that progress through the Republicans’ tax and Bill through congress. Trump had previously identified July 4 as the last date of the transition, but on Friday, “Not all is the last,” he said. “But if possible, we want to do it until then.” On Saturday night, the Senate officially kicked the discussion process and voted for the legislation. Monday, June 30, week ahead of Chicago Purchasing Managers Index 09:45 ET DALLAS FED index 10:30 am. EMPLOYMENT SURVEY 8:15 AM PRE -ARE: UNIFIRST (UNF) Thursday Thursday July 3, 8:30 AM ET FARM STARTS STARTS REPORT 8:30 AM ET ET TRADE REPORT 10:00 ET ISM SERVICES Cramer, Jim will receive a trade warning before you make a trade. Jim is waiting for 45 minutes after sending a trade warning before buying or selling a share in the portfolio of charitable confidence. 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