Here are the 5 big things we’re watching in the stock market in the week ahead
The Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, a host of economic data and several major earnings reports are on the agenda this week. But the biggest event for Wall Street will take place in California, where Nvidia is holding its influential artificial intelligence technology conference. That’s what we often said when getting into Nvidia’s GTC; Jim Cramer will be there this week with CEO interviews including Jensen Huang. Not only is the AI chip maker the world’s most valuable company, but a large portion of the market is also riding the AI development wave. But this year things are different. 1. The reality of the moment is that what matters most to both Wall Street and Main Street is what happens in the Strait of Hormuz and, by extension, oil prices during the Iran war. It is no exaggeration to say that this is what matters when it comes to the stock market. The GTC takes the backseat. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell does the same; although there is some intrigue about how the central bank will deal with oil-fueled inflation as the labor market cools. As we discussed in the early days of the war, oil is the lifeblood of the global economy. From corporate income statements to bank accounts, high oil prices represent a large and unavoidable cost that competes with all other purchases. Therefore, the stock market will probably continue to take its cue from oil. Investors will likely welcome any developments that ships flying Iranian and Chinese flags will be able to safely pass through the Bosphorus soon. Meanwhile, signs that the vital shipping route for one-fifth of the world’s oil is largely exempt from the bans will spell trouble for stocks. However, we often have to keep track of everything else that has a more significant impact on the market. If the strait does indeed open, we expect buyers to return to the market to look for anything taken back, amid fears that oil prices will rise for a longer period of time. 2. Nvidia’s GTC kicks off on Monday with Jensen’s keynote. Perhaps the most important thing to note is that there’s an update to Nvidia’s rumored inference-focused AI chip, following its licensing deal with Groq late last year. We took a deep dive into Groq on Friday, explaining why a chip aimed at everyday use of AI models is so critical. Outside of Groq-related news, we’re also listening for updates on Nvidia’s next-generation Vera Rubin chip family, which will begin shipping to customers in the second half of 2026. Additionally, new details on Rubin’s successor architecture (called Feynman after theoretical physicist Richard Feynman and scheduled for release in 2028) will be noteworthy as Nvidia continues to push the boundaries of innovation to stay ahead of the competition. Although it’s known for its graphics processing units (GPUs), we’re likely to hear a lot about Nvidia’s central processing units (CPUs) as well, thanks to the rise of agent AI. Prepare to hear a lot about optics, too. With GPUs, CPUs, and everything Groq contributes, we’re talking about the brains of the computer, the processors that crunch the numbers. Optics are on the networking side, a complementary basket of technologies that act as highways for data and enable all “brains” to communicate with each other. Copper has historically been the primary backbone of network hardware, but today’s modern accelerated data centers are creating a larger role for fiber optic technology; This is the crux of our thesis at Corning. Currently, fiber optics are used to connect server racks throughout the data center in a method known as “scale-out.” But the “scale-up” timeline for seeing more optical technology in individual server racks, where copper is king, is an important debate. For example, Nvidia’s current-generation Grace Blackwell platform has more than 5,000 copper cables in a single full server rack. Earlier this month, Broadcom CEO Hock Tan suggested that copper perhaps remains relevant in “scale-up” uses for longer than some expected, sending optics stocks crashing on March 5. At GTC, Jensen’s comment on copper-to-optics transition numbers will have an impact on shares of Corning, as well as other companies such as Lumentum and Coherent, both of which recently partnered with Nvidia to further drive innovation in optics. Speaking of optics, we would be remiss not to mention that the Fiber Optic Communications Conference will also be taking place in Los Angeles next week. With increasing interest in optics, the comments and announcements at this conference will likely stimulate the shares in the group. Broadcom announced Friday that it will present at the conference and showcase “industry-leading solutions for scaling AI infrastructure.” On GTC from a financial perspective, we’ll be looking for additional comments on Nvidia’s retained earnings and perhaps any details beyond the information management shared in its fourth quarter conference call in late February. At the time, CFO Colette Kress said: “We expect sequential revenue growth through calendar 2026 that exceeds the figure included in the $500 billion Blackwell and Rubin revenue opportunity we shared last year. We believe we have inventory and supply commitments in place to meet future demand, including shipments, extending through calendar 2027.” As noted, Jensen’s opening statement is on Monday. If we learn anything new about finances, it’ll be at Nvidia’s financial analyst Q&A event on Tuesday, which kicks off at noon ET. Jensen will appear on “Mad Money” Tuesday night. 3. The Fed’s March policy meeting ends Wednesday afternoon and is largely expected to leave the Fed’s benchmark overnight lending rate unchanged. This means most of the intrigue will be Chairman Powell’s post-meeting press conference. This is also one of four Fed meetings each year at which central bankers present their Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) regarding year-end expectations for U.S. GDP growth, unemployment rate, inflation, and interest rates. Central bankers are having a tough time with these forecasts, as the February jobs report showed an unexpected decline in payrolls and the rise in oil prices in the wake of the Iran war raised inflation concerns. Our investment decisions at the club are not driven by the Fed’s SEP perspective, but it has the capacity to move the market upon its launch, so it would be useful to know when this is due. 4. There are a few more economic developments on the horizon; the most important of which is the February producer price index (PPI) on Wednesday morning, a few hours before the Fed’s decision. The PPI report is often essential reading for businesses, providing insight into production input costs and can predict future pricing actions (think price increases). But like the two inflation reports we received last week, the upcoming PPI data covers a period when the Strait of Hormuz was open, or in other words, when oil was $30 per barrel cheaper. At the very least, PPI will provide a renewed basis for wholesale inflation before the oil rally. On the manufacturing side, we’ll get the Fed’s monthly review of industrial production and capacity utilization numbers on Monday. Then on Wednesday morning, the Census Bureau’s full report on factory orders will be released. On housing, we have pending home sales on Tuesday and new home sales on Thursday. As investors in Home Depot, which relies on housing turnover to drive business, we expected the market to rebound. But it is hard to imagine housing activity getting any better as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and energy prices remain high. We saw the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate move in the opposite direction, reaching its highest level since September on Friday, as investors sold bonds due to renewed inflation concerns, leading to a rise in bond yields. The 10-year Treasury yield affects mortgage rates. As learned last week, the bottom line for Main Street and Wall Street right now is that nothing is more important than reopening the Strait of Hormuz. As governments deplete oil reserves to cushion the supply shock and the United States eases sanctions on Russian crude, rising oil prices despite these actions suggest they are nothing more than a temporary band-aid. On Friday, both the US oil standard WTI and the global benchmark Brent reached their highest levels since the summer of 2022 at $98.71 and $103.14, respectively. 5. A handful of earnings reports from companies outside the club’s portfolio will offer some real-time insight into how their customers’ behavior has evolved since the start of the war in Iran. Technology and other sectors will also be represented. On the consumer-focused side, Dollar Tree will report Monday morning, followed by Five Below Wednesday evening. Both appeal to value-oriented shoppers, so what these management teams have to say about recent traffic trends is worth considering. Up top, we’ll hear from Lululemon on Tuesday evening, Macy’s and Williams-Sonoma on Wednesday morning, and Signet Jewelers on Thursday morning. Also on Thursday morning, we’ll get a sense of consumer desire to dine out, according to a report from Olive Garden’s parent company, Darden. Away from the consumer, Micron is scheduled to report Wednesday evening, and its commentary on supply and demand dynamics in the memory chip market could have ripple effects across the tech sector and beyond. While the recent surge in memory prices is due to increased demand for AI data centers, it leaves companies in the consumer electronics space in a difficult position: consume higher costs at the expense of your margins or raise prices to offset them, potentially eroding sales. Israeli defense company Elbit Systems, reporting Tuesday morning, may provide some insight into global defense spending intentions now that there is a war in Iran. FedEx announced the results Thursday evening. FedEx is particularly notable because the company’s 30,000-foot view of global trade can provide important information about consumer and business activity across industries. Next week, Monday, March 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET Industrial manufacturing Before the bell: Dollar Tree (DLTR), KE Holdings (BEKE), Science Applications (SAIC) After the bell: Adecoagra (AGRO) Pending home sales Tuesday, March 17 at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Elbit (ESLT), Tencent Music (TME), Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) After the bell: Oklo (OKLO), lululemon (LULU), Docusign (DOCU), ZTO Express (ZTO) Wednesday, March 18 Producer price index (PPI) 8:30 a.m. ET Factory orders 10 a.m. ET Federal Reserve interest rate decision 2 p.m. ET Chairman Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference 2:30 p.m. ET Before the bell: General Mills (GIS), Macy’s (M), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Jabil (JBL) Bell: Micron (MU), Red Cat (RCAT), Five Below (FIVE) Thursday, March 19 Initial jobless claims 8:30 AM ET New home sales at 10:00 AM ET Before the bell: Alibaba (BABA), Accenture (ACN), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), Darden (DRI), Lands’ End (LE), Signet (SIG) After the bell: FedEx (FDX) Friday, March 20 Before the bell: XPeng (XPEV) (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long NVDA, AVGO, and GLW. 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