Hopes RBA won’t repeat shock rates hold as board meets
The markets are almost sure that the Australian Reserve Bank will be increasingly encountered in an increasingly uncertain environment, although it will reduce interest rates at the August meeting.
Diana Mousina, Deputy Economist of the AMP, said that the three -month inflation figures published by the Australian Statistical Office in July should convince them to reduce the cash rate at a two -day meeting in July.
Mousina, in fact, said the decrease of 25 basis points to 3.6 percent, he said.
Although mortgage holders have voted in a 6-3 decision in July, in July, they will hope that the lighting should not be shot twice.
The majority of economists are waiting for a deduction, including 31 out of 34 experts participating in the survey by the comparison website Finder.
However, after the markets predicted two more sections, RBA Governor Michele Bullock will try to withdraw expectations in his communication after the meeting after the meeting ends on Tuesday.
Mous We think that RBA will still seem to be cautious about giving too much advanced guidance, and considering the concerns that the risks of inflation may be again in Australia, and that interest rates will continue to be interrupted for the time being. ”
Another potential concern for Mrs. Bullock may be developments in the US Federal Bank.
Ms. Mousina said that after the US president was appointed to replace the Governor Adriana Kugler, the US president Stephen Miran, we could see the “trumpification of the Federal Reserve.
Mr. Miran’s appointment may reduce the US interest rates if Donald Trump enters the way.
JP Morgan Chief economist Bruce Kasman said, “The appointment of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board will increase the pressure for deeper ratio interruptions while expanding concerns about the FED independence,” he said.
Although the RBA has focused more on local developments in recent months, the Fed’s great impact on global borrowing costs can determine the shade of international monetary policy.
When the FED is cut, it tends to follow central banks around the world.
And a dovish return can have consequences for Australian dollar, investor expectations and wider economy.
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