How Bihar has voted since 2000: Infographics

A high-stakes political fight is expected in the 2025 Bihar Assembly Elections; Voting will be held on November 6 and 11, and the results will be announced on November 14 for all 243 seats. The fact that the contest is again between the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) marks an important turning point in Bihar coalition politics.

Over the last two decades, the State has witnessed dramatic changes in voter behaviour, alliance structures and political loyalty. The Grand Alliance, once a cohesive force under Tejashwi Yadav’s leadership, is struggling with internal disputes, with the coalition entering into direct competition among its partners for 11 seats. RJD and Congress will face off in six seats, Congress and CPI in four seats and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) is challenging RJD in Chainpur. Meanwhile, Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) will remain loyal to the BJP-led NDA.

How has Bihar voted for ruling parties since 2000?

Bihar elections have witnessed constant shifts in caste alignments, power equations and voting patterns since 2000, from the dominance of RJD to the long-running regime of Nitish Kumar. This pattern of change will once again determine the fate of Bihar.

2000: The Bihar Assembly elections in 2000 resulted in the decision being suspended. The RJD emerged as the single largest party, winning 124 of the 324 seats, but failed to secure a clear majority. As a Samata party leader, Nitish Kumar was supported by the BJP and became the Chief Minister of Bihar for the first time. NDA and its allies had only 151 MLAs as against RJD’s 159 MLAs. Seven days later, Mr. Kumar was forced to resign after failing to prove a majority in parliament. Later, Rabri Devi proved her majority with the support of many parties, including the Congress and the Left. With the separation of Jharkhand State from Bihar on 15 November 2000, the seat equations also changed in less than a year and the size of the assembly reduced to 243 seats.

2005: Bihar witnessed two elections in 2005. An election in February led to the suspension of the decision, allowing the President to come to power. The re-election in October brought the JD(U)-BJP alliance to power, ending the long-standing dominance of the RJD. JD(U) won 88 seats and BJP 55 seats and Mr. Kumar became the Chief Minister.

2010: While NDA won a landslide victory in 206 out of 243 seats, JD(U) won 115 seats and BJP 91 seats. Mr. Kumar became Prime Minister again but resigned in 2014 following JD(U)’s poor performance in the Lok Sabha elections. The better performing BJP demanded his resignation. JD(U)’s Jitan Ram Manjhi became CM.

2015: There was a dramatic turnaround in 2015 when the JD(U) joined hands with its old rival RJD and the Congress to form the Mahagathbandhan. The coalition scored a landslide victory over the NDA, winning 178 seats: RJD in 80, JD(U) in 71 and Congress in 27 seats. Mr. Kumar became Prime Minister again. However, in 2017, Mr. Kumar quit the RJD due to corruption allegations, which led to his return to the NDA.

2020: Although the RJD managed to emerge as the largest party with 75 seats, it was the NDA that secured victory by a narrow margin. While the BJP secured 74 seats, the JD(U) bagged 43 seats, its allies VIP and Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) (HAM(S)) contributed four seats each. With a total of 125 seats, Mr Kumar became the Chief Minister for the seventh time.

Nitish Kumar’s political journey

Nitish Kumar entered politics as a member of Janata Dal and was elected to the State Assembly as an MLA in 1985. As someone who lobbied for Lalu Prasad, Mr. Kumar had Mr. Prasad’s full support for the Prime Minister’s post in 1990. But in 1994, a group of 14 Janata Dal MPs rose up against Mr Prasad, lining up behind socialist stalwart George Fernandes. he named the group Janata Dal (George). While Fernandes was the face of the group, Mr Kumar was its creator. The group later renamed itself Samata Party.

In 1996, Mr Kumar switched his allegiance to the BJP. He became Prime Minister for the first time in 2000, but his tenure lasted only seven days. He became CM again in 2005. With a tenure of 18 years, Mr. Kumar is Bihar’s longest-serving Chief Minister and also has a history of switching sides three times. Even after the constant changing of the alliance between the BJP and the RJD, Mr. Kumar managed to consistently win all the elections held since 2005 and became the Prime Minister seven times.

Rise of BJP and decline of JD(U)

In the 2005 and 2010 assembly elections, JD(U) was a major party in alliance with the BJP and the party put up a strong show of strength by winning 88 and 115 seats respectively. This was the peak of JD(U) and played a dominant regional force in the state with the role of an ally of the BJP. However, JD(U)’s decline started with a decline in the number of seats (71) when it joined the Mahagathbandhan in 2015. Although the alliance worked and formed a government, it was no longer the largest party.

The 2020 elections were no different for the JD(U) in terms of number of seats; Even after returning to the NDA, the number of seats dropped again to 43, paving the way for the massive growth of the BJP in the state, which eventually led to both parties contesting with an equal number of seats in the 2025 assembly elections. While JD(U) fell from 88 seats in 2005 to 43 seats in 2020, BJP’s strength increased from 55 to 74 seats. While the BJP has emerged as a stronger force in the alliance, the JDU’s influence has weakened and the JD(U) has fallen to third place in the 2020 elections. Once a junior partner, the BJP has now become a dominant force in Bihar, changing the power equations.

RJD factor: Voter share since 2000

RJD has consistently maintained the highest vote share among RJD, BJP and JD(U) and was the single major party with the most seats in 2000, 2015 and 2020. In its heyday, RJD got 28 per cent of the vote share in both 1995 and 2000. In the two elections in 2005, it received 25.07 percent of the votes, and its vote rate dropped from 23.45 percent to 18.84 percent. It increased to 18.35 percent in 2010 and 18.35 percent in 2015.

The party tried to command its voter share till the 2020 elections with Tejashwi Yadav’s youth factor and consistent political positioning. Although the vote rate decreased after the 2000 elections, it increased again in 2020 with 23.11 percent.

Voter turnout trends

The highest voter turnout in Bihar history was in the 2000 assembly elections with 62.6% voter turnout, but there was a sharp decline to below 50% in 2005 (in both elections). It was a year of political instability, and two elections were held in the same year, likely leading to a decline in voter turnout.

Turnout gradually increased again from 2010 to 2015, and in 2020 the voting percentage almost stabilized at 57.1. There has also been an increase in women’s voter participation in the last two elections.