Japan’s imported baby boom spotlights a political and demographic timebomb | Japan

This week brought encouraging news for Japan’s long struggle to defuse the demographic time bomb: The number of babies born in one segment of the population in 2024 has risen to over 22,000; That’s nearly 3,000 more than the previous year and a 50% increase from a decade ago.

But none of the women who answered the calls – always published by conservative male politicians – having more children were Japanese.

Despite the happy atmosphere, the screams of babies from women from China, Brazil, the Philippines and Vietnam echoing through maternity wards were a reminder of the failure of successive governments to persuade Japanese couples to have larger families.

Births to Japanese parents were 41,000 fewer than in 2023, with 686,000 babies, according to data released the same week as figures showing Japan’s foreign population approaching 4 million (3.2%); This was a share of the population of 124 million that was unimaginable a decade ago.

The increase in migration did not occur by chance and should not be unexpected. It’s been seven years since Japan’s then-prime minister – the not-so-liberal Shinzō Abe – acknowledged the need to accept more low-skilled workers to address the labor shortage.

Non-Japanese faces are no longer a new thing in towns and cities and increasingly depopulated rural areas. Immigrants work in markets, restaurants and factories, construction sites, agriculture and fishing.

Previous modern-day definitions of Japan sakoku The self-isolating nation, whose leaders refuse to lower the drawbridge to all but a few foreign workers, is clearly outdated.

But the national debate over immigration feels all too familiar, starting with the reaction to the last election, when Sanseito, a small party on the right, dramatically strengthened its presence in the upper house after promising to “put the Japanese first.”

Sanseito now has 15 seats in the 248-seat parliament; in addition to three seats in the more powerful lower house. This rise may be short-lived, as some commentators have suggested, as voters who register their opposition return to more mainstream parties.

Despite an early general election, Sanseito and his leader Sohei Kamiya will have to wait until 2028 to build on the successes of this summer, but have already managed to set the tone for the debate on immigration.

All major parties, including those on the centre-left, have expressed concern about foreign workers, while the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has vowed to reduce illegal immigration to zero and ensure guest workers make greater efforts to integrate.

During the LDP’s latest contest to elect a new leader, the winner, Sanae Takaichi, launched her campaign with an attack on misbehaving foreign tourists, claiming without evidence that she had personally witnessed a visitor attack one of the sacred deer in Nara, where she is a member of parliament.

Other politicians have capitalized on claims that foreign immigrants are taking jobs away from Japanese workers and are more likely to commit crimes; None of this is supported by evidence.

The debate sometimes turns into xenophobia. Kurds living in Kawaguchi, near Tokyo, are the targets of hate speech and misinformation. Officials in four regions recently had to clarify that the aborted friendship initiative with African countries would not lead to an influx of workers from Mozambique, Nigeria, Ghana and Tanzania.

Locals at a ski resort in Hokkaido are protesting plans to build accommodation for more than 1,000 seasonal workers, mostly foreigners, conscripted to work in the tourism and construction industries.

But there are signs that economic necessity will eclipse political discourse and that immigration will continue to grow at such a pace that foreigners will account for more than 10% of the population within 15 years – 30 years earlier than previous forecasts.

That would please business leaders surveyed by the Nikkei business newspaper in September; Nearly all of these leaders said immigrant workers were a vital link in a supply chain that would be stretched to breaking point without them.

While Japan’s employers have responded positively to the question of migrant workers, the choice between economic decline and a more diverse population is one the country’s politicians continue to avoid.