How Iran chooses its supreme leader, and who could be next?

The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following joint US-Israeli airstrikes pushed the Iranian leadership into the urgent process of electing a new religious leader.

According to the Iranian constitutionThe religious leader is appointed by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member religious body elected by the people every eight years. Candidates for the Assembly are first vetted by the Guardian Council, and who can run is strictly controlled.

When the office becomes vacant, the Assembly meets to deliberate and elect a successor. The decision requires a simple majority vote.

Meanwhile, interim three-member leadership council He assumes the duties of religious leader until his replacement is officially appointed.

According to local media reports on Sunday provisional council It consists of President Masoud Pezeshkian, Chief of the Judiciary Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, who serves as the representative of the Guardian Council.

The council’s authority is strictly temporaryThe Assembly of Experts has the sole constitutional authority to choose Iran’s next religious leader.

Open polymarketTraders are pricing Mohseni-Ejei as the leader in the narrow field at around 18%. Other leading candidates include Arafi and Iranian cleric Hassan Khomeini.

The fact that it is trading just behind the “removal of position” result suggests that while markets are still leaning towards an individual successor, there is meaningful speculation around a potential structural change within the office itself.

Here are some key contenders:

Mohseni-Ejei Chief Justice of Iran since July 2021overseeing the country’s judiciary and overseeing legal policy throughout the Islamic Republic.

Before that, he served as attorney general from 2009 to 2014, was first deputy chief and spokesman for the judiciary from 2014 to 2021, and previously held national security posts, including secretary of intelligence from 2005 to 2009.

He is also a long-time member of the Eligibility Discernment Council, a key advisory body to the Iranian leadership, and his career has included senior positions in both the judiciary and security apparatus.

It was stated that Khomeini was the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, and could theoretically serve as a bridge between the revolutionary system and reformist voters. Council on Foreign Relations.

The CFR suggested that elevating someone like him could help preserve the basic structure of the Islamic Republic, ease Iran’s international isolation, and address widespread dissatisfaction within the country.

Arafi a senior Iranian cleric An influential figure in the religious and political hierarchy of the Islamic Republic. He rose through the ranks of the clergy through a series of important appointments, including director of theological schools in Iran, leader of Friday prayers in Qom, and member of the Council of Guardians and the Assembly of Experts, the body constitutionally charged with electing the religious leader.

Arafi’s roles in shaping theological education and vetting political candidates made him a central fixture in Iran’s religious power structure.

Under Article 111 of the Iranian constitutionThe death or incapacity of the religious leader immediately triggers the formation of an interim leadership council that exercises his powers until his successor is chosen.

While the Constitution does not set a specific deadline for the Assembly of Experts to appoint a new leader, it does state that the Assembly must act “as soon as possible.”

But analysts warned that the formal succession process could be accompanied by intense elite bargaining and wider geopolitical uncertainty.

Amin Saikal, an honorary professor at the University of Western Australia, said while Mohseni-Ejei appeared to be the frontrunner, the Assembly of Experts could choose another member, or even someone from outside it.

“There will be a lot of horse-trading,” he told CNBC, adding that “whoever comes forward can reach a compromise.”

He added that a hardline successor would likely continue Khamenei’s confrontational stance and security-first policies, while a more moderate figure might seek limited reforms aimed at easing domestic restrictions and improving foreign relations to ease sanctions pressure.

Separately, former U.S. ambassador to Russia and Stanford University professor Michael McFaul noted that historically air campaigns have rarely led to regime toppling, and questioned how current U.S. strikes targeting military assets rather than domestic pressure tools would translate into the broader regime change Washington has signaled.