How Iran plans to go to war with the US – and win
Iran has unveiled its vision for war with the United States, detailing how it will defeat the world’s most powerful military and hold the global economy to ransom.
In the detailed war plan published by Tasnim, the news agency affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), IranianHis leadership envisions attacks on US bases, new fronts opened by proxy allies, cyber warfare and the paralysis of the global oil trade. Iran insists that the Middle East will prevail against American technology.
Negotiations between the two countries appeared on the verge of collapse before both sides agreed to meet in Oman on Friday. However, Donald Trump said Iran’s religious leader: Ayatollah Ali KhameneiHe must still be “very concerned” on Wednesday night, raising fears of escalation again.
Stage 1: USA hits Iran
Iran’s scenario begins with US air and missile strikes targeting nuclear facilities, military facilities and Revolutionary Guard bases, many of which are located in densely populated areas.
U.S. forces will likely conduct strikes from aircraft carriers, including the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group currently in the region, from strategic bombers flying from home or European bases, and possibly from land-based systems in allied countries.
The Pentagon has made extensive plans for such operations for decades, launching attacks on Iran’s nuclear bases last June. Mr Trump threatens to strike country again After anti-regime protesters were brutally suppressed by government forces and thousands were killed.
To talk The Telegraph’s Planet Normal Podcastformer MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove said: “I think the probability of an attack is reasonably high, and the reason it is reasonably high is because the Israelis are encouraging Trump to do it.”
Credit: X/@Tasnimnews_Fa
American strike packages would include stealth aircraft, precision-guided munitions and coordinated salvos designed to defeat Iranian air defenses while minimizing U.S. aircraft losses.
Technological advances in hypersonic weapons and electronic warfare will provide significant advantages to the United States.
But Iran believes it is preparing for this scenario by hardening and deploying critical assets, building backup command structures, and developing extensive underground facilities that can withstand initial attacks.
Tehran’s calculations depend not on preventing damage but on maintaining sufficient capacity to launch a counterattack.
Phase 2: Iran responds with aid
Iran’s response would immediately expand the battlefield beyond its borders. The plan predicts that Tehran will attack US military facilities in the region with ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles within a few hours.
Primary targets include Al-Udeid air base in Qatar, which houses the forward headquarters of U.S. Central Command and serves as the main air operations center. Iran hit this base last year after their own nuclear site was hit by US B2 bombers.
Ali Al Salem air base in Kuwait and Camp Arifjan, a key logistics hub for US ground forces, will be attacked, while facilities in the United Arab Emirates and a US base in Syria housing 2,000 US troops will also be in line.
Iran was hit Ain al-Assad air base in Iraq Following the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in 2020, ballistic missiles caused traumatic brain injuries to more than 100 American soldiers. Although US troops completed a “full withdrawal” from the base last month, they may try again.
Credit: Telewebion
The report stated: “Iran sees itself not as an ‘isolated island’ in the war, but as the center of a potential conflict network.”
Iranian strategy envisages overwhelming US defenses by volume by launching hundreds or thousands of projectiles simultaneously to saturate Patriot and THAAD missile defense batteries.
Iran has it in its arsenal Shahed-136 aircraft Kheibar Shekan ballistic missiles with a payload capacity of 50 kg, ballistic missiles with maneuverable warheads designed to evade missile defenses, Emad ballistic missiles with a payload capacity of 750 kg, and Paveh cruise missiles with a range of 1,000 miles.
While many will be intercepted, Iran believes enough attacks will occur to cause significant casualties and damage critical infrastructure. Simultaneously, it is envisioned that Iran’s “axis of resistance” will mobilize on multiple fronts.
Hezbollah in Lebanon has made clear that it views a war against Iran as its own war and could launch rockets and missiles at Israel, forcing the US ally to divert resources to defense.
of Yemen Houthi The rebels will intensify attacks on ships in the Red Sea, Israel and US bases in the region. Iraqi militia groups loyal to Tehran will hit US personnel and diplomatic facilities.
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However, this multi-agent strategy faces significant challenges. Israel’s latest military operations It has seriously weakened the capabilities of Hezbollah and Hamas.
The assumption that these groups will immediately coordinate effective attacks while defending against Israeli and US countermeasures seems optimistic.
Host countries, including Iraq and Lebanon, can actively work to prevent their territory from being used for attacks that would lead to devastating retaliation.
However, the multi-front approach aims to disperse America’s forces across the region by opening multiple conflicts in different places, limiting Washington’s ability to gather forces against Iran.
Tehran has warned that any country providing airspace, bases or logistical support to US operations will be declared a “legitimate target”.
Stage 3: Cyber War
Iran plans to launch cyber attacks It targets what it perceives as America’s weak points: transportation networks, energy infrastructure, financial systems, and military communications.
Tehran believes that cyber operations could disrupt US military logistics, complicate command and control of troops, and create chaos in allied countries hosting American forces.
By attacking civilian infrastructure such as power grids or water systems, Iran hopes to pressure host governments to expel US forces.
Iranian hackers have previously demonstrated their capabilities against regional targets. In 2012, the Shamoon virus damaged 30,000 computers at Saudi oil giant Aramco.
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Recently, Iranian groups have probed US infrastructure but have had limited success against hardened military networks.
But U.S. Cyber Command has spent years preparing for such scenarios. America’s cyber capabilities dwarf Iran’s with the ability to launch attacks against Iranian infrastructure that is more vulnerable than US systems.
Pentagon It could disable Iran’s energy production, disrupt missile guidance systems and compromise communications networks.
Phase 4: crippling global oil supply
Iran’s most powerful weapon is said to be geographic: control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 21 million barrels of oil per day (roughly 21 percent of global oil) pass.
Only 29 miles wide at its narrowest point, this waterway is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Bosphorus during periods of increased tension.
The tactic would involve mining the waterway, attacking tankers with missiles and drones, and potentially sinking ships and blocking shipping channels.
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Revolutionary Guard naval forces employ swarming tactics, using small boats armed with rockets and torpedoes designed to take on larger warships.
Such actions will be sent oil prices It could potentially rise to $200 or more per barrel, causing significant economic damage worldwide and putting pressure on the United States to back down.
Ali Khamenei’s representative Hossein Shariatmadari said: “We can impose restrictions on the USA, France, England and Germany in the Strait of Hormuz and not allow them to pass.”
Iran calculates that this economic weapon could shatter the international coalition supporting US military action.
Credit: Aparat/ @تا ظهور
The United States has contingency plans to keep Hormuz open, including mine-clearing operations, destroyer escorts for tanker convoys, and attacks on Iranian coastal facilities.
However, even a partial disruption of shipping in the Bosphorus could shake global markets. Iran believes the economic cost will force Washington to negotiate rather than continue a protracted war.
But this strategy also carries risks for Iran itself; Oil exports account for the majority of government revenues, and closing Hormuz would devastate Iran’s economy more than its enemies’.
Stage 5: End of game
Tehran’s strategy is based on the United States and its allies’ conclusion that the costs of sustained conflict will outweigh any benefits.
Iran hopes to create an unsustainable multi-front situation by threatening global energy supplies, launching sustained attacks on multiple countries, and potentially causing America to suffer significant losses.
Iranian planners believe America’s appetite for protracted wars is limited Afghanistan and Iraq.
Simultaneously fighting against entrenched proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and potentially Syria, while defending allies in the Persian Gulf and keeping shipping lanes open would strain even U.S. military resources.
Iran’s strategy is based on the assumption that the US president will decide war would be too costly – Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Bloomberg
Iran sees its strategy as one of asymmetric resilience; He cannot win militarily, but he believes he can make victory too expensive for Washington.
This calculation depends on the United States choosing to de-escalate tensions rather than deploying its full range of conventional capabilities that could destroy Iran’s infrastructure and military forces.
The ultimate question is political will rather than military capability.
The strategy also assumes rational decision-making by both sides, but escalation dynamics in war are notoriously unpredictable. What Iran intends as calibrated pressure could trigger overwhelming U.S. retaliation, especially if American casualties are high.
Iran knows this. While the plan envisions victory, there is a quiet hope that it will never be implemented.
