How Moscow might respond if Trump stops Russian oil to India
Moscow (Reuters) -Uus President Donald TrumpIndia’s request for stopping Russian oil imports may threaten billions of Russian revenues, stopping Moscow by stopping a large US -led oil pipeline and retaliation and potentially a new global supply crisis.
India, the third largest oil importer in the world, has become the largest buyer of Russian oil since 2022 and purchased up to 2 million barrels per day for 2% of global supply. The other best buyers are China and Turkey.
The Indian route is so important for the Kremlin that if it breaks down, the US oil major may ask Kazakhstan, the major stocks of Chevron and Exxon, to ask for retaliation by closing the TBM pipeline.
“Russia is not leverage,” the US bank said.
Unless Moscow reached a peace agreement with Ukraine until 7-9 August, Moscow threatened to slap up to 100% tariffs in countries that bought Russian oil. 25% tariff in imports of all US goods from India starts on Friday.
In a statement on Thursday, Reuters said that Indian state refineries have paused Russian oil purchases among Trump’s threats this week.
Reorganization
India has started to buy large amounts of oil from Russia, the second largest oil exporter in the world since 2022. After Europe, Russia’s former high -level customers brought Russian oil a prohibition on its military actions in Ukraine. Russia’s oil giant Rosneft has a major share in one of India’s largest oil refineries.
According to India’s government data, India relys 35% of Russian oil imports worth $ 50.2 billion in 2024-25 financially.
“Cutting this flow will require a great reorganization of trade flows,” BNP Paribas said, and added that the global supply is already stretched.
According to LSEG data, all varieties and notes from India, Urral from Western ports, Espo from the Pacific and Sokol and some notes from the North Pole buy Russian oil.
If India stopped purchasing because it bought volume up to 70% of Russia’s largest export grade, the Urals would be most impressed. Indian Oil Minister said the country can find alternative supply.
India needs to increase the importation of US and Middle East crude oil or reduce refined runs, and especially lead to an increase in diesel prices importing fuel from India.
“Indian refinerers will still struggle to change the heavy quality of Russian crude oil, so they can polish the runs,” Neil Crosby, one of the Sparta commodities, said. He said.
Falling income
Despite international sanctions, Russia has been able to continue to sell oil since 2022, but it has been selling it at global prices.
