How Russia Could Attack Elon Musk’s Conquering Of Space

Two NATO-member intelligence services suspect Russia is developing a new anti-satellite weapon that would target Elon Musk’s Starlink constellation with devastating shrapnel clouds. This weapon is used to curb Western space superiority. Ukraine on the battlefield.

Intelligence findings seen by The Associated Press say so-called “area effect” weapon will try to flood Starlink orbits Hundreds of thousands of high-density pellets have the potential to disable multiple satellites at once, but also run the risk of causing catastrophic collateral damage to other systems in orbit.

Analysts who have not seen the findings say they doubt that such a weapon could operate in space without causing uncontrollable chaos. companies and countriesto contain Russia and its ally ChinaThey rely on thousands of satellites in orbit for communications, defense and other vital needs.

Analysts said such repercussions, including risks to its own space systems, could push Moscow away from deploying or using such a weapon.

“I don’t buy it. I really don’t,” said Victoria Samson, a space security expert at the Secure World Foundation who leads the Colorado-based nonprofit. annual work anti-satellite systems. “Frankly, I would be very surprised if they did something like this.”

But the Canadian military’s Space Division commander, Brig. Gen. Christopher Horner said such Russian work cannot be ignored in light of previous U.S. allegations that Russia was also carrying out an indiscriminate operation. nuclear, space-based weapon.

“I can’t say I was informed about this type of system, but it’s not unreasonable,” he said. “If the reports about the nuclear weapons system are true and they are willing to develop it and they are willing to achieve that goal, it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to me if something a little shorter than that but equally damaging is in their development wheelhouse.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not respond to AP messages seeking comment. There is Russia called in advance For the United Nations’ efforts to stop orbital deployment of weapons and President Vladimir Putin Said Moscow was I don’t intend to deployment of nuclear space weapons.

The intelligence findings were shown to the AP on the condition that the services involved were not identified and the news organization could not independently verify the implications of the findings.

US Space Force did not respond to emailed questions. The French military’s Space Command said in a statement to the AP that it could not comment on the findings, but “we can say that Russia has increased its irresponsible, dangerous and even hostile actions in space in recent years.”

The findings show that Russia sees Starlink in particular as a serious threat. Thousands of low-orbit satellites are vital to Ukraine’s survival against a full-scale Russian invasion now in its fourth year.

Starlink’s high-speed internet service is used by Ukrainian forces for battlefield communications, weapons targeting and other roles, and by civilians and government officials where Russian attacks have affected communications.

Russian officials have repeatedly warned that commercial satellites serving the Ukrainian military could be legitimate targets. This month, Russia said it had fielded the S-500, a new land-based missile system capable of hitting targets in low orbit.

Unlike a missile Russia tested in 2021 According to intelligence findings, the new weapon under development will target multiple Starlinks simultaneously to destroy a defunct Cold War-era satellite, with the pellets likely being released by small satellite formations that have not yet been launched.

Canadian Horner said it was difficult to understand how clouds of pellets gathered to hit only Starlink, and that debris from such an attack could “get out of control in a hurry.”

“You’re blowing up a can full of BBs,” he said. Doing so would “take up an entire orbital regime and eliminate every Starlink satellite and every other satellite that is in a similar regime. And I think that’s the incredibly disturbing part.”

The AP’s findings did not provide detailed information about when Russia might deploy such a system, or whether the system has been tested or how far the research is believed to be advanced.

The system is being actively developed and information about the timing of the expected deployment is too sensitive to share, according to an official familiar with the findings and other related intelligence the AP has not seen. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the findings, which have not been made public.

Samson said such Russian research could only be experimental.

“I can’t rule out some scientists building something like this because it’s an interesting thought experiment and they think, ‘Maybe at some point we can get our government to pay for this,'” he said.

Samson suggested that the specter of a so-called new Russian threat could also be an effort to provoke an international outcry.

“A lot of times the people who are pushing these ideas are doing it because they want the US side to build something like this, or to justify increased spending on counterspace capabilities, or to use it for a more hawkish approach towards Russia,” he said.

“I’m not saying that’s what’s going on with this,” Samson added. “But people have been known to take these crazy arguments and use them.”

Intelligence findings say the pellets would be so small (only millimeters in diameter) that they would be undetectable by ground- and space-based systems that scan for space objects, making it difficult to pin blame on Moscow for any attack.

Clayton Swope, who specializes in space security and weapons at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a security and policy think tank based in Washington, D.C., said it would “complicate things if weapons can’t be tracked” but “people will figure it out.”

“If the satellites get damaged and start to fade out, I think you can put two and two together,” he said.

It’s unclear exactly how much destruction the tiny pellets can cause. In November, a suspected collision caused by a small piece of debris was enough to damage a spacecraft planned to return to China. three astronauts Let’s go back to Earth.

“The most damage will probably be done to the solar panels because they are probably the most fragile part of the satellites,” Swope said. “But this would be enough to damage a satellite and possibly disable it.”

Analysts say that after such an attack, pellets and debris would fall toward Earth over time, possibly damaging other orbiting systems on the way down.

Starlink’s orbits are about 550 kilometers (340 miles) above the planet. China’s Tiangong space station and International Space Station It operates in lower orbits, so “both will face risks,” according to Swope.

The space chaos such a weapon could cause could allow Moscow to threaten its enemies without actually having to use it, Swope said.

“It definitely feels like a weapon of fear looking for some sort of deterrent or something,” he said.

Samson said the disadvantages of an indiscriminate pellet gun could divert Russia from such a path.

“They have invested a tremendous amount of time, money and manpower into becoming a space power,” he said.

Using such a weapon would “effectively save space for them as well,” Samson said. “I don’t know that they would be willing to give up that much.”

Emma Burrows in London contributed to this report.