How the Trump-Iran conflict is redrawing the global map
Two weeks into Donald Trump’s campaign against Iran, the conflict is beginning to take a shape that few strategists publicly predicted but many privately fear.
Wars are rarely confined to the maps originally drawn for them. The war against Iran is no exception.
What began as a campaign of American and Israeli air strikes against Iranian military targets is now spreading far beyond the original battlefield. At least 20 countries are involved in some way; firing missiles, intercepting them, deploying forces, or quietly providing intelligence and weapons.
Economic shock waves go even further.
This week, economist John Cochrane, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, said this week that it’s not yet close to World War III.
“If another major power sided with Iran and no one else did, even if it was China, which lost access to a lot of oil here, that would be World War III,” he says.
But the scale of involvement – the number of countries involved, the overlapping crises, and the involvement of major powers – makes it the most internationally complex conflict in recent years. And it’s still expanding.
Iran has hit at least 12 countries since the start of the war; It targeted American and Israeli military installations, Gulf capitals, oil facilities and civilian areas in what appeared to be an effort to inflict maximum pain on Washington and its allies.
Attacks spread from Israel and Lebanon to Gulf countries and parts of the Eastern Mediterranean.
The economic consequences were equally rapid. Tehran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow corridor through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil cargo passes, causing oil, gas and petrochemical prices to rise in global markets.
What started as a military conflict has now turned into a global energy shock, and experts say Chinese President Xi Jinping finds himself balancing rival pressures.
China relies on Iran for a significant portion of its oil imports and is urging Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to avoid a deeper global energy crisis. But US intelligence suggests Beijing may also be preparing to offer Iran financial aid and components for its missile program.
Melanie Hart, a senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Center, says China’s interest in the conflict from an energy perspective may be exaggerated.
“China is less dependent on imported oil than many observers think,” he said.
“It’s working to electrify the country’s car fleet, and it’s making shocking progress. And Chinese leaders have taken advantage of low oil prices over the past few years to go on a buying spree, bolstering their domestic reserves to plan for a future supply crisis like the one they’re facing now.”
He says China is better prepared than other major economies to face the energy crisis that could arise from the situation in Iran.
Meanwhile, Israel finds itself fighting on two fronts.
While its air force strikes targets across Iran, its army is engaged in a ground war with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. More than half a million people were reportedly displaced and hundreds died within a week due to intensified Israeli bombardment.
The geography of the conflict is expanding in other directions as well.
European armies were drawn directly into the war, intercepting Iranian missiles and drones as they crossed allied airspace; This marks the first time NATO forces have shot down Iranian weapons over member territory.
France sent its nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to the Eastern Mediterranean. UK warships are already in the region after an Iranian-made drone hit the British base in Cyprus.
Even long-standing rivalries suddenly intersect with war. Greece and Türkiye, both NATO members but geopolitical foes, have rushed forces into Cyprus, where their aircraft now patrol opposite sides of the island’s long-standing division line.
Countries far from the Middle East are also withdrawing.
Australia signaled it would send missiles and a radar surveillance aircraft that will help the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf states defend against Iranian attacks.
In one of the most striking developments of the war, a US submarine reportedly sank an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka; this was the first kill at sea by an American torpedo since the closing days of World War II.
Behind the apparent conflict lies a quieter strategic struggle between the world’s great powers.
Vladimir Putin’s government is reportedly helping Iranian forces track US assets in the region by sharing satellite images of American naval movements with Tehran.
At the same time, Ukraine, which has for years defended against Iranian-made drones supplied to Russia, has reportedly sent experts and interceptors to assist American and Gulf forces facing the same technology.
Andrew Gawthorpe, an expert on modern American history at Leiden University, said the conflict inevitably means Washington will have to withdraw munitions from other theaters, leaving Kiev’s European allies with less munitions they can buy for Ukraine’s defense and America’s deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.
“The 12-day war waged by the United States and Israel against Iran in June 2025 is thought to have consumed approximately a quarter of the United States’ entire THAADS inventory,” he said, referring to Terminal High Altitude Area Defense Systems and anti-ballistic missile systems. “When these munitions stocks run low during war, choices have to be made about which targets to protect and which not to protect.”
Peace talks planned to be held in Abu Dhabi regarding the war in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely. Washington eased sanctions to allow India to buy Russian oil in a bid to stabilize energy markets.
Diplomatic efforts around Gaza have stalled as Gulf states, which have pledged billions of dollars for reconstruction, focus on defending themselves against Iranian missile attacks.
And US strategists face an entirely different concern: the rate at which interceptor missiles and other munitions are consumed.
These stocks have been built over the years largely with one scenario in mind; Deterring a possible conflict involving Taiwan and China.
Now they are wasted in the skies of the Middle East.
None of this means that a global war is inevitable.
But the pattern is familiar to historians of conflict: a regional conflict that gradually entangles allies, rivals, supply chains and energy markets until the war touches far more parts of the world than it originally intended.
Historian Niall Ferguson said this week we’re more likely to be in a Third Gulf War than a Third World War.
“But if it lasts long, Gulf War III could potentially be as significant an event as the 1973-74 oil shock,” he said.
“In addition to being economically disastrous, this was one of the most dangerous moments in Cold War I. Today it is best understood as an equally dangerous moment in Cold War II.”
Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. Subscribers can sign up for our weekly Inside Politics newsletter.
Rob Harris is a national correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, based in Canberra. He is a former European correspondent.Connect via email.
