How U.S.-EU trade deal impacts imports
18 July 2025, Bremen, Bremerhaven: Containers are handled at the overseas port.
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A tariff simulator shows a dramatic decrease in global exports to the US as a result of President Donald Trump’s new trade agreement with the European Union.
On Sunday, Trump announced a trade agreement with the EU following his meetings with the European Commission President Ursula von Der Leyen. Trump said the agreement has brought 15% tariffs to most European goods, including cars, the US.
Accordingly Tariff Simulator The online data visualization and distribution platform is expected to fall more than 46% in 2027 compared to the average of economic complexity observation (OEC) and the average of the last three years. The US exports of the US to the world in 2027 are expected to increase by 12% compared to the average of the last three years or by $ 1.59 trillion.
The estimation is based on an extended gravity model designed to estimate how trade can be restructured in response to the trade agreement announced between the US and the EU. This estimate does not contain the effect of all wide tariff increases to be applied on August 1st.
“The US does not apply tariffs to each other, while the United States is applying tariffs to the world,” the USA Professor Cesar Hidalgo at the Toulouse School of Economics.– He is the founder of Datawheel, the director of the Collective Learning Center and the OEC tariff simulator.
“The issue here is that most of these scenarios will have a natural tendency to remove trade relations from the United States.
Hidalgo, “In the early 2025 scenario in the screenplay, the US to the United States in the beginning of 2027 in 2027 was estimated to increase to $ 155B. 15% tariff frame, the United States to continue to go up to $ 203. Hidalgo. Hidalgo.
Within the scope of the 15% Tariff Scenario stipulated by the tariff simulator, the US will import the USA, Britain ($ 22.5 billion), France ($ 10.2 billion) and Spain ($ 5.65 billion) and less than China ($ -485 billion), Canada (–300 billion) and more than Mexico (-238 billion).
As a result of the decrease in China’s exports to the USA within the scope of this scenario, China
Imports from the United States are expected to decrease $ 101 billion.
Logistics experts have been warned that the products are still expensive, even with tariff rates, even lower than the original “mutual” rates described in April for months.
The layer of tariffs will make many products more expensive and companies will give up shipments. Retail managers say that the result will be a lack of product diversity in the US shelves, and that American consumers will be accustomed to.
Andrew Abbott, CEO of NICHE OCEAN Carrier Atlantic Line CEO, will be the decisive factor for some European transporters.
Abbott, “high -valuable products (construction equipment, agricultural equipment, aviation, transformers, etc.) some ocean reservations to wait for all reservations I saw.” He said.
“Everything depends on the tariff ratio. He said. “On the other hand, companies that bring low valuable goods continue to order products.”
Most exposed companies
Based on the trade data compiled and analyzed by OEC, Language invoices – receipts of containers that detail the product and company information – show that IKEA is the best US company imported from the EU to 28%. Southern Glazer’s wine and souls are 9%, followed by Continental Tire (4%), Bosch (4%), Dole Food Co. (3%) and Diageo (2.3%) were followed as the best importers.
According to the product category, the best EU exports to the USA reveals that the furniture leads the list to 11%, which is at 7%rubber tires, 6%bedspreads and 5%wine.
