President Donald Trump said he and Chinese leader Xi Jinping We had a “great meeting” In South Korea in October. More than two months later, there is still no formal agreement, leaving commitments from both sides uncertain and dampening expectations for a broader trade deal in 2026.
Trump described his meeting with Xi on October 30 as a “12” out of 10 and The White House announced a series of measures Both sides reached an agreement to cool the trade war. Crucially, this included China resuming purchases of U.S. agricultural products such as soybeans and lifting Beijing’s restrictions on critical mineral exports. In return, the United States agreed to extend the pause on triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods. Chinese Ministry of Commerce statementHowever, although the US accepted the tariff pause, it did not confirm these commitments.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in late October he told reporters He said negotiators were “moving towards the final details” of the deal. Weeks later, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration I was hoping to finalize Rare earth provisions of the Thanksgiving agreement. This deadline passed without any public text or announcement.
The lack of written terms approved by both sides has given both the Trump administration and the Chinese government leeway on how to implement the trade ceasefire, but critics say it also leaves the commitments open to competing interpretations and inevitably leads to more conflict. The absence of a broader US-China agreement going forward will cause the elements that disrupted trade relations in 2025—tit-for-tat tariff increases, export curbs on key products, and targeted import cuts—to become potential triggers for new economic chaos next year.
“It’s not complicated,” said Cameron Johnson, a senior partner at Shanghai-based supply chain consultancy Tidalwave Solutions. “The Chinese may or may not do this gradually, but that’s Diplomacy 101; what did you agree to and what’s the timeframe?”
They also say it bodes poorly for the realignment of trade between the world’s two largest economies that Trump promised at the beginning of his term. The president has touted a visit to Beijing in April as the next step in the talks.
“If they can’t even agree on what the U.S. fact sheet is and what the broad strokes of commitments are, that raises concerns about how much common understanding there is about the continuation,” said Greta Peisch, a partner at the Wiley Rein law firm in D.C. and former general counsel for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative under President Joe Biden.
Still, the White House remains optimistic about U.S.-China trade relations.
“President Trump’s close relationship with President Xi ensures that both countries can continue to make progress and resolve outstanding issues,” the White House said in a statement, adding that the administration “continues to monitor China’s compliance with our trade agreement.”
A USTR official noted previously issued statements outlining the administration’s expectations from China. The Treasury Department did not respond to a request for comment.
The president’s allies argue that the October agreement’s lack of writing is not a failure but a feature of Trump’s strategy, giving both sides flexibility to manage tensions without triggering disagreements over minor compliance disagreements.
“The Chinese don’t want a real, definitive deal, and they’re better off in some ways from Trump’s perspective, assuming they follow through on their verbal commitments,” said Wilbur Ross, who served as Commerce secretary during Trump’s first term.
But there are already signs of confusion.
In the White House briefing published on November 1, it was stated that China agreed to buy 12 million tons of US soybeans by the end of 2025. China’s Ministry of Commerce’s statement only mentioned “expanding agricultural trade” rather than a specific soybean target.
Beijing has resumed purchasing U.S. soybeans totaling at least 4 million metric tons since the end of October; This is well behind the pace of reaching the 12 million target in 2025. Greer told senators last month The White House said the fact sheet reflected an “inconsistency” in timing, with initial purchases planned to occur during the current crop year (generally understood to be mid-to-late 2026) rather than a single calendar year.
Chinese embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu declined to comment on whether China would honor its commitment to purchase soybeans.
WE soybean farmers are worried, Meanwhile, China’s purchasing commitments may become fragile if there is a new rupture in trade relations.
The deal’s lack of transparency also affects industries that depend on China’s sources of rare earth magnets. Rare earths are essential to producing everything from washing machines to iPhones and medical equipment. When China announced sweeping new export restrictions in October, it triggered alarms in global manufacturing supply chains. The White House says China has agreed to keep the flow of rare earths and magnets flowing, but the companies say shipments are still controlled by license and remain unpredictable.
“Supply chains are slowing down and some potential investments are not being made because the business world does not have precise information about what the future will hold. [rare earths] It looks like a road map,” Johnson said.
Meanwhile, US commercial sweeteners for Beijing continue to arrive. Trump on December 8 Nvidia announced this It will be allowed to sell its powerful H200 artificial intelligence chip in China, despite concerns that the move could give Beijing a technological advantage at the expense of the US. There are no signs of reciprocal moves by Beijing.
That has led national security hawks to warn that Beijing will feel emboldened to demand the United States lift similar restrictions on high technology in future trade talks.
“President Trump has gained more direct control over China policy than he ever had in his first term, so we’re seeing his own personal bias coming out more clearly than before,” said Christopher Adams, the former senior coordinator for China affairs at the Treasury Department and now a senior adviser to Covington and Burling. “And it prioritizes transactional agreements over pushing national security concerns.”
Peter Harrell, the former senior director for international economics on Biden’s national security council, said it could also deter Beijing from pursuing more ambitious trade goals with the United States next year and putting things on paper going forward.
“The Chinese understand that as long as they meet minimum expectations on soybean and rare earth exports, they will not face immediate pressure to commit to final texts,” he said.
This falls short of the claim the administration made when it launched its “Liberation Day” tariff campaign in April; Bessent predicts that the pressure of Trump’s high “reciprocal” tariffs will force China to move away from its export-led economic model. HE That same month, Trump predicted Beijing would rush to negotiate trade terms to avoid being locked out of the US market. What emerged was a cycle of rising tariffs for a brief period. reached triple digits and one Weaponizing export restrictions Trump and Xi targeted each other’s key economic weaknesses until they ended hostilities in October.
“We settled on a very limited bilateral agreement, without any broad market access or structural reforms aimed at addressing unfair competition or China’s problems. [industrial] Barbara Weisel, a former U.S. trade negotiator from 1994 to 2017, now works at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
