A look at unrealised trade promises and threats
Wyatte Grantham-Philips
President Donald Trump has made numerous tariff threats and trade promises in 2025. Many of these turned into a barrage of new import tariffs that upended decades of U.S. economic policy; but others have yet to be fulfilled after the year ends.
Some of Trump’s unrealized threats reflect a broader approach by a president with a track record of using sky-high tariffs to force other countries into new trade deals, take one-on-one retaliatory measures and even punish political critics.
They also come as a growing list of tariffs, from Trump’s punitive new duties on imported metals to tit-for-tat duties with the U.S.’s major trading partners like China, come into effect, plunging consumers and businesses around the world into uncertainty.
Here’s what Trump said today as he announced some of this year’s biggest (but still unrealized) tariff threats and promises, and the state of affairs.
Foreign Revenue Service
In his words:
1. Trump in a social media post on January 14: “For too long we have relied on taxing our great people using the Internal Revenue Service (IRS)… We will start charging those who make money off of us with Commerce, and they will FINALLY start paying their fair share. January 20, 2025 will be the birth date of the Internal Revenue Service.”
2. Trump in his inauguration speech on January 20: “We are creating the Internal Revenue Service to collect all tariffs, duties and revenues. Huge amounts of money from foreign sources will flow into our treasury.”
What happened: As of the end of December, the Internal Revenue Service has not yet been established. Although administration officials continue to reiterate plans to launch the Internal Revenue Service in Trump’s first months in office, that agency does not yet exist.
200 percent duty on European wine, champagne and spirits
In his words:
3. Trump in a March 13 social media post: “The European Union, one of the most hostile and abusive tax and tariff authorities in the world, created for the sole purpose of taking advantage of the United States, has imposed a disgusting 50% tariff on whiskey. If this tariff is not removed immediately, the United States will soon impose a 200% tariff on WINE, CHAMPAGNE, AND ALCOHOL PRODUCTS. REPRESENTED IN FRANCE AND THE EU OTHER COUNTRIES.”
What happened: The EU’s planned tax on American whiskey, announced as part of a broader retaliation in response to Trump’s new steel and aluminum tariffs, has been postponed, and the final postponement will reportedly last until at least February.
Trump’s threat of 200 percent tariffs on European alcohol never materialized. But spirits were not included in the EU-US trade agreement reached in the summer, which set a 15 percent rate on most European imports.
100 percent customs tax on foreign films
In his words:
4. Trump in a May 4 social media post: “The Film Industry in America is DYING a very rapid death… I am authorizing the Department of Commerce and the United States Trade Representative to immediately begin the process of imposing 100% Tariffs on all Films coming into our Country and produced on Foreign Soil.”
5. Trump in a Sept. 29 social media post: “Our filmmaking business has been stolen from the United States by other countries, like stealing ‘candy from a baby’… I will impose a 100% tariff on all films made outside the United States.”
What happened: Despite Trump’s repeated threats, the United States has not yet imposed 100 percent tariffs on foreign films. After its initial promise in May to start the process, the White House said no final decision had been made. It is also still unclear how the US will tax a film shot abroad.
Tariffs on pharmaceutical drugs
In his words:
6. Trump at the Cabinet meeting on July 8: “We’re going to announce something about the drugs very soon. We’re going to give people about a year, a year and a half, to come. And after that, they’re going to be subject to tariffs… They’re going to be subject to a very, very high rate of 200 percent.”
7. Trump in a social media post on September 25: “Beginning October 1, 2025, we will impose a 100% Tariff on any branded or patented Pharmaceutical Product Unless a Company Establishes a Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Facility in America.”
What happened: The president did not sign an executive order imposing a 100 percent tariff on pharmaceutical products on October 1, and as of today, no duties have been implemented. But Trump has previously suggested higher taxes on pharmaceutical drugs could be coming down the road, telling CNBC in August that he would start by imposing a “small tariff” and potentially increase the rate by as much as 250 percent.
Meanwhile, trade agreements with certain countries set their own rates or exemptions; For example, the UK imposes a 0 percent tariff on all British medicines exported to the US for three years. The administration also announced deals with certain companies promising lower drug prices.
100 percent tariff on computer chips
In his words:
8. Trump on August 6: “We’re going to put a nearly 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors… But if you’re building in the United States, there’s no fee.”
What happened: A comprehensive 100 percent regulation of computer chips has not yet taken effect. While Trump announced plans to implement the tax in August, he did not make a clear statement about the timing. And other details remain few.
$2000 tariff dividend
In his words:
9. Trump in a Nov. 9 social media post: “Those who oppose tariffs are STUPID!… Everyone will be paid dividends of at least $2,000 per person (except high-income people!).”
What happened: Details are still scarce on how, when and whether the tariff dividend will reach Americans. Budget experts said the math didn’t make sense. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that this might not mean government checks. Bessent told the ABC in November that the reduction could take the form of a tax cut. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett also told CBS News it’s up to Congress.
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