Hundreds of thousands newly displaced as Islamic State insurgency expands in Mozambique | Mozambique

More than 300,000 people have been displaced in Mozambique by the Islamic State insurgency since July. This comes amid growing fears that authorities lack a workable plan to end the war.

The overwhelming conflict in Mozambique has been largely ignored or forgotten, as the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Sudan receive more attention and foreign aid declines. More than 1 million people have been displaced, many two, three or even four times.

Neither the Mozambican army nor the Rwandan intervention has succeeded in suppressing the insurgency that has gripped northern Mozambique since October 2017, when Islamic State-Mozambique militants, ISIS’s main offshoot in the Middle East, launched their first attack in Mocímboa da Praia. in the northeastern province of Cabo Delgado.

The group attracted the world’s attention with its attack on the town of Palma in March 2021. More than 600 people were killed in the attack and the army’s subsequent recapture of the town. Armed Conflict Location and Event DataA nonprofit conflict monitor involving foreign workers on the multibillion-dollar Total liquefied natural gas (LNG) project.

Rwanda, whose army is better equipped and trained than Mozambique, initially pushed back the militants by deploying 1,000 troops to Cabo Delgado in July 2021. Rwanda currently has an estimated 4,000 to 5,000 military personnel in the country.

But violence against civilians has never completely subsided and has increased this year, according to Acled.

More than 100,000 people were displaced in November alone, according to report International Organization for MigrationAfter operations in Mozambique and Rwanda pushed ISIS fighters south, the rebels launched their furthest attack yet into Nampula province.

By the end of November, more than 350,000 people had been displaced; that figure rose to 240,000 a year ago.

Tomás Queface, a researcher at independent conflict monitor Acled, said the rebels were “very daring”, adding that Rwandan and Mozambican forces were “not as effective as they used to be”. Rwandans do not patrol like they used to.

“And more importantly, the government wants Mozambican forces to take the lead in the conflict and then Rwanda to stay behind,” he said.

Acled has recorded 549 deaths, more than half of them civilians, in 302 attacks so far this year. The civilian death toll, at 290, is already 56% higher than last year. Almost 2,800 civilians have been killed since 2017; 80 percent of them were killed by ISIS and more than 9 percent by Mozambican forces.

Mozambican President Daniel Chapo, who took office in January after hundreds of people were killed by security forces following disputed elections. He told Al Jazeera In September he said he wanted to dialogue with the rebels.

Dialogue, including with communities in the underdeveloped region, is key to resolving the conflict, said Borges Nhamirre, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, a South African think tank.

But he was skeptical: “What matters most is not what politicians say, but what they do. After eight years… there is no attempt at effective dialogue.”

He said most military efforts were focused on securing the estimated $20 billion LNG project and said Total would do so in October. to proceed after receiving government approval.

Nhamirre said: “First of all, you have to ask what happened. [objective] There were Rwandan and Mozambican forces. “If the issue is to guarantee human safety, we can say that they have failed… But if the aim is to secure the LNG project, they have achieved a certain success… The LNG project is definitely safer than in 2021.”

Meanwhile ISIS kidnapping children for forced labor, marriage or fighting. In June, Human Rights Watch (HRW) reported: sharp increase in such kidnappings.

Sheila Nhancale, a researcher at HRW, said: “The displacement now occurring also increases the risk of sexual violence, exploitation and abuse, particularly for women and children. [in November]“70,000 of them are children.”

People forced to flee also face diminishing support. There are donors $195 million given to humanitarian response this year – only 55% of estimated need – compared to $246 million last year.According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Sebastián Traficante, head of operations for Médecins Sans Frontières in Mozambique, said displaced people “are forced to stay in places with very poor conditions, with very poor access to basic services.” They have already been affected by eight years of conflict.

“They just want this to be over. They just want to be able to go back home, farm; they want to live a normal life.”