Hungarian voters face a big question. JD Vance thinks he has the answer
London: Vying to win a tight election, Viktor Orban needs all the help he can get to convince Hungarian voters to keep him as prime minister.
US vice president JD Vance seems happy to help.
Orban, who has led Hungary for the past 16 years, is counting on his American friend to deliver a public show of support this week. Vance will oblige voters to arrive in Budapest on Tuesday for two days of events before casting their votes on Sunday.
But while many Europeans have hardened their objections to US President Donald Trump, especially over his war with Iran, there are serious doubts about whether American intervention will affect the Hungarians.
That makes this election more than just a test of support for Europe’s most established conservative leader, who wants to turn away immigrants, stop aid to Ukraine and lift sanctions on Russia. It is also a test of whether Trump and Vance have enough influence to shape the outcome.
Orban has campaigned heavily on policies opposing immigration and defending Hungary’s rights as a sovereign nation within the European Union.
“Let’s be proud that we are the only country in all of Europe to say that we will not let others from Brussels tell us who we should live with,” he said at a rally for his Fidesz party last week.
But as energy prices rise and global growth stalls, the war with Iran complicates his campaign, and his friends in Washington are part of the problem.
Orban warns voters of a serious energy crisis. He is also careful not to accuse Trump of starting a war that led to oil shortages. It is certainly possible that Orban, who is behind his rival Peter Magyar from the Tisza party in the opinion polls, will not experience this problem.
Magyar has a chance to become prime minister after his spectacular split with Orban in February 2024, which exposed a corruption scandal, left the ruling party and signed for Tisza, who used the words respect and freedom.
“I really think this will be a referendum on our country’s place in the world,” Magyar said in an interview with The Associated Press on Thursday.
“I think Tisza will achieve a landslide election victory because even Fidesz voters do not want our country to become a Russian puppet state, a colony, an assembly plant, instead of belonging to Europe.”
So can Vance make a difference by supporting Orban from the MAGA movement? Probably not, says Zselyke Csaky, a senior research fellow at the Center for European Reform. Trump, of course, has already supported Orban several times.
“This is not the most important factor in the election campaign,” Csaky says in this article.
“Just like in other countries, people focus primarily on domestic issues and foreign policy often takes a backseat.
“For Fidesz voters, Trump’s support is further evidence that Orban is a major player globally, but this support is not something that will win Orban new voters or be decisive on April 12.”
However, Csaky notes that a foreign policy issue could affect the campaign. Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, a key member of Orban’s government, is accused of disclosing classified information to Moscow following meetings with his EU counterparts.
Statements made by Insider Information and other media outlets featured leaked recordings of Szijjártó telling his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov that he was trying to stop sanctions against Russians close to Putin. Szijjártó said the allegations were “fake news” because their objections to the sanctions were public knowledge.
Orban is a political survivor who can prevail against the odds. Once a member of the Young Communists, he entered politics after the Soviet Union collapsed and he came to power with a free market agenda. However, over time, he centralized power and ensured the welfare of his friends. guardian of democracy Freedom House accused it of restricting civil liberties and the rule of law.
While polls point to a change of government, the voting system in Hungary has favored Orban in the past. His party won 53 percent of the popular vote and 68 percent of the seats in 2022.
Csaky says he predicts Magyar and his party will need to win more than 3 percent of the popular vote to achieve a clear electoral victory.
Orban has also used his time in power to reshape the media in his favor and install his allies in key institutions. When Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe When he monitored the 2022 elections, he found that they were “marred by the lack of a level playing field” as the system – including the media – tilted towards Orban.
‘Trump’s support is further proof that Orban is an important player globally, but this support is not something that will win Orban new voters.’
Zselyke Csaky, senior research fellow at the Center for European Reform
In an environment with so many risks, the race for power in Budapest is one of the most important elections in Europe this year. The outcome will determine whether Hungary remains Moscow’s friend in both NATO and the EU, an important issue for Ukraine.
It will also shape the way the EU works because many decisions require consensus, or sometimes unanimity, among states. Hungary has vetoed more EU decisions under Orban than any other member.
But Hungarians strongly support the EU, and for good reason. Hungary is one of the biggest net beneficiaries of the spending, according to a calculation by Statista. While Germany and France pay the most to the Union, Hungary, Greece and Poland receive the most.
Csaky says Orban is reaping political gains from his base because he draws a clear distinction between Brussels and the EU.
“He portrays himself as a kind of ‘freedom fighter’ defending Hungary’s interests, as someone fighting against the ‘Brussels elite’ or bureaucracy. When it comes to the EU and the benefits of membership, he is much less hostile.”
Vance adds to the complex race with his arrival on Tuesday and plans to make a big speech about the “rich partnership” between the United States and Hungary.
In theory, this could help Orban claim a practical benefit for Hungarians; just as Trump did last year when he said Hungary offered a “fiscal shield” if its financial system were attacked. There was no evidence of such an agreement.
In practice, there were no gains in the polls for Orban after the visit of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in February. That means voters this week may shrug their shoulders and conclude that Vance doesn’t matter.
But Vance clearly thinks it’s important. He delivered a blistering speech about Europe’s failings in Munich early last year and said it was said its efforts to fight misinformation amounted to censorship. He accused the continent of losing its way on core values and losing its importance as an American partner. European leaders still ignore criticism.
Vance clearly thinks he knows what’s best for Europe. We’ll find out this Sunday whether the Hungarians agree.
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David Crowe is the European correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect with: X or email.
