1 big thing we’re watching in this week’s market just as important as Iran
Wall Street’s scorching rally from wartime lows to new highs faces a big test this week: a jam-packed earnings calendar. The list of reporting companies ranges from AI business stalwarts like Club name GE Vernova, to battlefield software stocks like ServiceNow, to companies with their finger on the pulse of the industrial economy, like steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs and copper miner Freeport-McMoRan. Don’t forget Intel or Elon Musk’s Tesla, which are at the center of the AI computing shortage. Both of these reports are always speakers. The market will look to these earnings reports for insights into what the Iran war has meant for businesses and economic activity over the past six-plus weeks. However, it is equally important that investors want to understand the general situation here. Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend after a brief reopening on Friday that sent stocks soaring. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he was sending US negotiators to Pakistan to meet with Iranian officials on Monday, as he once again threatened to bomb infrastructure. Stocks held up better than expected during the Iran war sell-off, which bottomed out on March 30; That’s largely because investors are betting that many companies can grow earnings again this year. That’s why this earnings season carries so much weight. We’ll find out if this is the right bet as quarterly results and forward guidance from management teams continue to roll in. The most important thing for us in the busy week ahead is that six Club names report. Here’s a closer look at what we’re tracking (all revenue and earnings per share estimates come from LSEG). Capital One kicks off the action on Tuesday night. This report can be mainly divided into groups. The first is everything related to the health of the consumer. This includes credit metrics such as Capital One’s net charge-off rate and establishing reserves to cover potential loan defaults. It also includes CEO Richard Fairbank’s general commentary on spending trends. The second relates to progress on acquiring credit card provider Discover and, in a recent surprise move, expense management startup Brex. Some of Capital One’s stock weakness this year — namely President Donald Trump’s credit card limit proposal and economic concerns tied to the Iran war — has been beyond its control. But we won’t give Fairbank and his team a free pass on what they can control. This means we need to see more tangible benefits from the blockbuster Discover deal, which was completed 11 months ago, and bring greater clarity to Brex’s vision. On paper, Brex helps Capital One look even more like a mini American Express. But there are some questions about Brex’s competitiveness against peers like Ramp. The Brex deal added additional execution risk on top of Discover. Revenue: $15.36 billion EPS: $4.55 Boeing is due out Wednesday morning, and we expect to see a cleaner report than the one that came in January, when the planemaker booked an unexpected $565 million charge in its defense segment. Of course, hope is not a strategy, so we shortened our position last week to avoid any disappointment this time. Two well-timed acquisitions during the March sales gave us the opportunity to make the sale. While Boeing has already announced first-quarter aircraft deliveries ahead of the quarter, one of the focuses on Wednesday will be the size of orders and backlogs in both its commercial and defense divisions. At the end of the 4th quarter, Boeing’s commercial backlog was over 6,100 aircraft and the value of this figure was 567 billion dollars. The other main focus will be on Boeing’s free cash flow performance, because at this point that’s one of the best ways to rate CEO Kelly Ortberg’s progress in fixing the troubled airplane maker. Boeing has posted outflows for back-to-back years, but this year led the way for positive free cash flow in the $1 billion to $3 billion range. Revenue: $21.93 billion EPS: $0.83 GE Vernova reported alongside Boeing on Wednesday morning. Orders will also be of great interest as the AI structure increases the demand for everything electric. GE Vernova is right in the middle of this crazy action because it uses both gas and wind turbines to generate electricity and produces power grid equipment like transformers and switchgear. GE Vernova received orders worth $22.2 billion in the last three months of 2025, up 65% organically. The consensus for new orders for the first quarter is $14.4 billion, according to Bank of America. GE Vernova’s total backlog ended last year at $150 billion, and the company will announce an updated number on Wednesday, offering additional color on where it stands, particularly in the gas turbine business. CEO Scott Strazik made a compelling case last quarter that pricing power won’t collapse as more turbine manufacturing supply comes online in the industry. However, GE Vernova’s operating profitability, both companywide and in the energy segment, will continue to be closely scrutinized. Our ears will be open to any discussions regarding nuclear affairs. Revenue: $9.18 billion EPS: $1.88 On Thursday, Honeywell will report before the bell. The stock had risen to a series of record highs following an upbeat earnings report in January. Then the Iran war took place. Shares have pulled back from their war-torn lows, but it hasn’t been a trampoline bounce like we’ve seen for other stocks (we’re looking at you, Broadcom). One thing that will likely keep the shares in check: CEO Vimal Kapur said at a conference in mid-March that the company’s first-quarter revenue would be weak due to problems shipping products to the Middle East. Kapur said this won’t impact the full-year outlook, but some investors may want to see the actual numbers and see Honeywell reaffirm guidance before they’re ready to put in money. In general, industrialists like Honeywell tend to be more sensitive to economic vagaries because customers may delay orders when they become less confident about the direction of their business. Another big box for Honeywell to check: confirm that its long-awaited Aerospace spin-off is still on track for the third quarter. That’s the long-awaited catalyst that’s keeping us patient with this stock. As you approach, the “spin purgatory” ledge should gradually dissipate; just as DuPont has shown since its two-way breakup last fall. Revenue: $9.3 billion EPS: $2.32 Joining Honeywell on Thursday’s list is Dover, another industrial conglomerate. Unlike Honeywell, Dover has not announced plans to dramatically reshape its business cluster, which ranges from refrigerator doors to liquid cooling components for AI servers to car lifts at the body shop. But we would welcome such an announcement by Thursday. The company ended 2025 with approximately $2.7 billion in dry powder that can be used for mergers and acquisitions. As Jim Cramer explained at our April Monthly Meeting, Dover is at risk of being ruined if we see a better opportunity. Dover isn’t a bad company, and order trends and organic growth are on track for a solid, accelerating 2026; It’s something we’d like to see reaffirmed on Thursday. But ultimately the number of shares we can own is limited. Dover needs to prove his worth. Revenue: $2 billion EPS: $2.26 The key metrics for Procter & Gamble as of Friday morning are organic sales growth and profitability (both gross and operating margins). In Tide parent company’s January earnings report, compared to the second quarter of fiscal 2026, P&G saw a 1 percentage point decline in volumes and a 1 point pricing advantage, leading to flat organic sales. But executives were confident that stronger growth would lie ahead in the back half of the financial year; so we want to see this come to fruition in January-March numbers. The increased focus on profitability, following the war-induced rise in oil prices and disruptions in petrochemical supplies, has also led to higher plastic prices. Even though the situation in the Middle East has calmed down, investors will still want to know how P&G’s input costs are doing and what that means for its earnings outlook. Jim said on Friday’s Morning Meeting that he wouldn’t be purchasing any additional shares ahead of the launch, but we’re still optimistic that new CEO Shailesh Jejurikar can revitalize P&G and regain market share with new innovative products. P&G is our protection against economic crisis. Revenue: $20.54 billion EPS: $1.56 Next week Monday, April 20 Before the bell: Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) After the bell: Alaska Air (ALK), Steel Dynamics (STLD), Zions Bancorp (ZION) Tuesday, April 21 8:30 a.m. ET Commerce Department’s Retail Sales Report National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: UnitedHealth Group (UNH), GE Aerospace (GE), 3M (MMM), DR Horton (DHI), Danaher (DHR), Original Parts Company (GPC), RTX (RTX), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), Equifax (EFX), Forestar Group (FOR), Halliburton (HAL), MSCI (MSCI), Northrop Grumman (NOC) After the bell: Capital One Financial (COF), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), EQT Corporation (EQT), Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR), United Airlines (UAL), WR Berkley (WRB), Chubb (CB) Wednesday, April 22 Before the bell: Boeing (BA), GE Vernova (GEV), Vertiv Holdings (VRT), AT&T (T), Elevance Health (ELV), Boston Scientific (BSX), Philip Morris International (PM), BankUnited (BKU), First BanCorp (FBP), Moody’s (MCO), TE Connectivity (TEL), Wabtec (WAB) After the bell: Tesla (TSLA), ServiceNow (NOW), IBM (IBM), Lam Research (LRCX), Texas Instruments (TXN), Hexcel (HXL), CSX (CSX), Pathward Financial (CASH), Century Communities (CCS), Kaiser Aluminum (KALU), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Molina Healthcare (MOH), Oceaneering International (OII), United Rentals (URI) Thursday, April 23 Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. ET Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Honeywell (HON), Dover (DOV), Nokia (NOK), Blackstone (BX), Dow Chemical (DOW), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), American Express (AXP), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), STMicroelectronics (STM), Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI), American Airlines Group (AAL), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Infosys (INFY), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Comcast (CMCSA), Cemex (CX) After the bell: Intel (INTC), Baker Hughes (BKR) Friday, April 24 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (last read) 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Procter & Gamble (PG), Charter Communications (CHTR), Western Union (WU), Apogee Enterprises (APOG), First Hawaiian (FHB), Flagstar Financial (FLG), Gentex (GNTX), HCA Healthcare (HCA), Norfolk Southern (NSC), SLB (SLB), Sensient Technologies (SXT) (See here for a complete list of stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investment Club with Jim, you will receive a trade alert before Cramer, Jim makes the trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trading alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable foundation’s portfolio. If Jim talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he would wait 72 hours after issuing the trading alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTMENT CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY, TOGETHER WITH THE DISCLAIMERS. NO CIVIL OBLIGATIONS OR DUTIES EXIST OR SHALL BE RESULTING FROM YOUR RECEIVING ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTMENT CLUB. NO SPECIFIC RESULT OR PROFIT CAN BE GUARANTEED.
