Will Robert Jenrick’s defection to Reform convince wavering Tories to jump ship?
Sipping a cocktail at the Johnnie Walker experience in Edinburgh on Thursday afternoon allowed Kemi Badenoch to bask in a rare victory after what was a tumultuous start to her leadership of the Conservative Party.
He had finally rid the Conservative Party of Robert Jenrick MP, whom he had defeated in the leadership race at the end of 2024 but who remained his main rival at the top.
The shadow justice secretary had repeatedly broken ranks to advance his own agenda, refused to toe the party line and done little to dispel ongoing speculation that he was preparing to challenge her once again for the leadership.
After knocking out Mr Jenrick with a shrewdly timed tweet to coincide with Nigel Farage’s announcement of the Reform leader in Scotland, it emerged that the Conservative Party leader had finally taken back control of his party – and in turn, quashed speculation about his own future.
He had seized the initiative, forcing her to confirm his defection in a strange and hastily arranged press conference with Mr Farage.
But as the state of emergency the party has found itself in for the past 24 hours appears to be coming to a conclusion, Mr Farage has set a de facto deadline of May 7 for more refugees to join.
The Conservatives have a number of departure watchlists for MPs and colleagues, mostly made up of critics of Kemi Badenoch’s leadership or previous supporters of Mr Jenrick’s leadership bid, with the party now bracing itself for a possible flood of departures.
‘Game could be over by May 7’ admits senior Tory Independent.
But there is a real divide within Badenoch’s senior team and the party as a whole over how to deal with defectors.
Lord Malcolm Offord’s announcement as Reform leader in Scotland yesterday – completely overshadowed by the Jenrick news – was a case in point.
Her departure at the end of last year was addressed personally by Ms Badenoch’s husband, Hamish; Although Hamish was not very public in his thoughts, he was providing great support to his wife behind the scenes.
The wife and former Treasury secretary was a friend of Mr Badenoch’s, worked with him on fundraising and was a regular guest at the house.
There were calls from some Badenoch allies for slash-and-burn tactics used against other asylum seekers, such as former chairman Sir Jake Berry and MP Danny Kruger, to be used against Offord, but the advice “nobody knows who this bloke is” came back.
However, sources said Offord left because she was “angry” after being overlooked for promotion to the role of party leader in the Lords.
“We have too many people not getting what they want, throwing the toys out of the stroller and jumping on Reformation,” one source said. Lord Offord dismissed the charge as “utter nonsense”.
Nadhim Zahawi, whose candidacy was said to have been rejected by the Conservatives before being announced as Reform’s newest member this week, was another example.
But there is a view that the party needs a more nuanced approach.
“We have to deal with these people on a case-by-case basis. Some of them, like Zahawi, we say, ‘Hell, welcome to him, Nigel!’ We should say!’ “We must leave a way back for others,” a senior Conservative source said.
Although Ms Badenoch insisted on Friday that no more senior Tories would switch sides, it is clear CCHQ and the leader’s senior team knew Mr Jenrick would not be the last Tory to defect to Reform. They don’t know who will follow him or when.
“All we can do is hope that Kemi recovers and relaxes, the voting improves and that this will prevent separations,” one senior figure admitted.
Meanwhile, Reform is stepping up its attempts to persuade undecided Tories; Senior figures with whom MPs dine and drink are thought to be considering switching to Mr Farage’s party.
Independent A senior Tory MP said he had gone out to dinner with Reform deputy leader Richard Tice in recent weeks and tried to persuade them to come here. The MP, a close ally of Jenrick, resisted this temptation, saying: “The Conservative party is my home.”
But some MPs and prominent former MPs also admitted they had received calls from Reform asking if they were interested.
Conservative Party insiders hope that, unlike Lord Offord, Mr Jenrick’s brutal dismissal will make potential asylum seekers think twice.
However, there is some disagreement within the ranks about the tactics the party uses.
Just hours after chief whip Rebecca Harris called Jenrick to announce his fate, a Conservative MP said she had challenged him, protesting that the sentence given to him was too harsh. In addition to being sacked as shadow justice secretary and losing his party leadership in Parliament, he was also suspended from the party he joined at the age of 16.
But the Conservative Party leadership staunchly defends the move, pointing out that anyone planning to leave the party does not demonstrate loyalty to the party, no matter how young they were when they joined.
It was not just her departure that angered some close to Ms Badenoch, but the secret plot to undermine the Conservatives as she left.
Those who know him say that despite his public reputation as feisty and determined, he can be careful and cautious when making decisions. “He’s not one to make decisions right away,” a source said.
“However, this did not last long,” they added.
They soon agreed that there was only one thing that could be done: quickly, publicly and ruthlessly expel Jenrick from the Conservative Party.
Their now-former colleagues were pleased with the impact of their push to take the initiative – they were acutely aware that Farage had arranged a press conference ostensibly about the local elections on Thursday afternoon – but they were also aware that they might not get the chance again.
It was decided to release a video of Ms Badenoch making the shock announcement that Mr Jenrick had been sacked; Meanwhile, Farage was holding another press conference, this time in Scotland, and introducing Lord Offord in a way that not many people noticed at the time.
Party insiders were outraged by the speech they found included attacks on shadow chancellor Mel Stride and shadow home secretary Priti Patel as part of the defection evidence. It is not thought that any other shadow cabinet ministers were specifically targeted, but personal attacks against those with whom he sat in the shadow cabinet the day before came as a shock.
And the speech also included a “quite flattering” tribute to Kemi Badenoch.
One person, who plans to pull the rug out from under Jenrick, said: “So why are you leaving? There’s only one answer to that and that is your personal ambition. So that became obvious to Rob as soon as he lost the leadership contest. He couldn’t deal with it in his own mind.”
Even those who consider themselves his friends agree with this view. Warning bells were ringing over Christmas when it emerged that he had not been in contact with at least one Conservative MP he spoke to regularly. Conservatives are now looking for similar warning signs among some of their colleagues.
Finally, Robert Jenrick was late to be unveiled as the Reformation’s newest star attraction after disappearing on the steps of Westminster’s Millbank Tower.
The block became the center of Reform UK’s attempts to win the keys to Downing Street last year. But it was mostly used by Tony Blair as the headquarters of his hugely successful election campaign in 1997.
Mr Jenrick hides from the media gathered downstairs. But he and his team hadn’t negotiated the confusing stairs in the tower.
While Farage joked on stage that his new recruit might have already defected, he still had the job of reassuring the party’s treasurer, billionaire Nick Candy, who is married to former Neighbors star Holly Valance, about his future.
Mr Jenrick eventually found his way to Mr Farage. It seems unlikely that he will be the last disaffected Tory to do this.
