IMF upgrades global growth forecast as Trump tariffs ease, but warns on risks | Global economy

The International Monetary Fund said that global growth would be stronger than expected this year after Donald Trump reduced the most extreme tariff threats.

The Washington -based organization has promoted a healing and wider economic expansion in global trade by the White House, but the US policies were “extremely uncertain ve and the growth risks remained“ negative ”.

IMF Chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas increased its global growth forecast in 2025 to 3% of an estimation of 2.8% in April. The 2026 view was increased from 3% to 3.1%. The global economy increased by 3.3% in 2024.

Most regions have benefited from a better -natured economic appearance, including the UK, which is expected to grow by 1.2% this year, 0.1 percent higher than the IMF’s April appearance.

In April, Donald Trump threatened to apply serious import tariffs to the world’s largest exporters, including the United States, the EU, China and South Korea to fight with what the US President believed was unfair competition.

The stock exchanges dived and the US dollar fell as investors who were frightened with potential accuracy in world trade, and Safe Havenassets bought it.

The United States then delayed or reduced tariffs in exchange for purchasing commitments to purchase goods, investors reversed the market as “Trump always chickens” or briefly the Taco result.

At the weekend, Trump agreed to end months of speculation that would apply 30% tariffs to EU imports, and said it would limit to 15% in exchange for concessions, including the acquisition of approximately 600 billion pounds of US oil and gas. The French Prime Minister described the US-EU trade agreement as a “dark day for Europe.

Japan recently agreed to buy Boeing planes as part of an agreement to limit the tariffs in exports to the United States to 15%. And Trump also reduced tariffs on Chinese goods after retaliation by applying punishing tariffs on rare land metals needed by Beijing, defense industry manufacturers.

Gourinchas said the United States “partially reversed” and reduced the US’s effective tariff rate from 24% to approximately 17%.

However, he added: “Despite these welcome developments, the tariffs remain historically high and the global policy remains quite uncertain and only a few countries have reached completely fleshy trade agreements.”

The White House has determined August 1 for many countries, including Vietnam and South Korea to sign agreements with the USA.

“Without comprehensive agreements, ongoing trade uncertainty can focus on more and more investment and activity, Gou said Gourinchas.

The situation should intensify the attacks on the central banks and weaken their authorities. Trump called on the US Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell to reduce interest rates and call him “Numbskull” because he could not do it.

“It is important to re -confirm and maintain the principle of independence of the Central Bank. Evidence is overwhelming that independent central banks are required to fix inflation expectations with a narrow authority to follow price and economic stability,” he added.

“Despite the recent increases in inflation, he owes a great extent to the independence and difficult reliability of the central banks in the world.

The trade data published on Tuesday showed that the importation of goods to the United States fell $ 11.5 billion (£ 8.6 billion) in June, and companies fell to 264.2 billion dollars after an increase in imports early this year while trying to defeat Donald Trump’s tariffs.

This increased the US trade deficit from $ 96.4 billion to $ 86.0 billion in May in May.