Congressional redistricting wars heat up ahead of 2026 midterms

President Donald Trump suffered a stinging defeat this week in the high-stakes battle over congressional redistricting, just days after the Supreme Court handed him a resounding victory.

After months of pressure from the President, top allies and aligned groups, the GOP-dominated Indiana Senate on Thursday rejected a new Trump-backed map that would have created two more right-leaning congressional districts in the solidly red Midwestern state where Republicans control seven of Indiana’s nine U.S. House seats.

The showdown in Indiana comes a week after the Supreme Court cleared the way for Republican-majority Texas to use its newly redrawn map; This creates five more right-leaning seats in the House of Representatives.

Indiana was the latest battleground in Trump’s aggressive national campaign to reshape congressional districts ahead of the 2026 midterm elections; As the party in power this term, Republicans will likely face traditional political headwinds as they defend their razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives.

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Trump, who has advocated for redistricting in the middle of the decade in a rare but not unheard of move, aims to avoid what happened during his first term in the White House when Democrats retook the House majority in the 2018 midterm elections.

Democrats are pushing back because they hope to thwart pressure from the president and his allies.

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Let’s take a look at where things stand and what’s next in the fierce battle over redrawing maps.

Current balance of power

Republicans currently hold a 220-213 majority in the House of Representatives, while two Democratic-held seats are vacant.

But with the resignation of Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, an ardent MAGA advocate who has fallen out with the president, the number of GOP lawmakers in the chamber will drop to 219 by early next month.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., an ardent MAGA advocate who has fallen out with President Donald Trump, announced in January that she will resign from Congress. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)

A special election will be held Jan. 31 to fill the seat vacated by the death of Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner of Texas last March.

A special election will be held April 16 to fill the seat vacated when Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill resigned after being elected governor of New Jersey last month.

As of now, Democrats need to win a net three seats to regain their House majority in next year’s midterm elections.

Where does it stand in the redistricting battles?

Six states have new congressional maps: California, Missouri, North Carolina, Texas, Ohio and Utah.

The Republican pick of five seats in Texas was annulled by the withdrawal of five more left-leaning seats in Democrat-majority California.

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The GOP gained two more right-wing seats in Ohio and one each in Missouri and North Carolina. But a Utah district judge last month rejected a congressional district map drawn up by the state’s GOP-dominated legislature and instead approved an alternative that would create a Democratic-leaning district ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

Do the math, Republicans now have a theoretical three-seat advantage in redistricting battles.

But this is far from written.

Democratic opponents of redistricting in Missouri have submitted thousands of petition signatures calling for a statewide referendum on the state’s new maps that could jeopardize GOP redistricting.

In Utah, Republicans hope an appeal will overturn the court-ordered map.

It’s far from certain that Democrats will sweep all five newly left-leaning counties in California, or that Republicans will do the same in Texas. And Democrats in Ohio are confident they can still make a play for two newly drawn districts that lean to the right.

What’s next?

Republicans are looking to GOP-controlled Florida, where early redistricting moves are being launched in Tallahassee. A new map could possibly produce up to five more right-leaning seats. But conservative Gov. Ron DeSantis and the GOP’s legislative leaders disagree on how to proceed.

Speaking to reporters at a news conference in Ochopee, Florida, on July 25, 2025, Governor Ron DeSantis supports congressional redistricting in his state. (Al Diaz/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

Democrats have their eyes on Virginia, where the Democratic Party has a majority in both houses of the legislature. There is the possibility of a new map in the Commonwealth producing up to four left-leaning districts.

Other states that could step into redistricting battles: Democrat-dominated Illinois and Maryland, and two red states with Democratic governors, Kentucky and Kansas.

wildcard

The Supreme Court, weighing on redistricting battles, is expected to decide Louisiana v. Callais, a landmark case that could overturn a key provision in the Voting Rights Act.

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If the decision goes in favor of conservatives on the high court, it could lead to redrawing of majority-minority districts across the county, which would heavily favor Republicans.

But it is unclear when the court will rule and what they will actually do.