Back to Israeli occupation of south Lebanon?

A month into Israel’s war against Hezbollah, occupying Israeli troops are slowly advancing into southern Lebanon, raising fears about the fate of the region after the last Israeli occupation that lasted nearly two decades.

Since the outbreak of war last month, Israeli officials have said Israel plans to establish a “security zone” inside Lebanon.

More recently, Defense Minister Israel Katz said the military “will be located in a security zone within Lebanon … and will maintain security control over the entire area from the border to the Litani river, approximately 30 kilometers (20 miles) away.”

What’s happening on the ground and how far can Israel go?

– What’s going on in South Lebanon? –

The Israeli army had previously issued unprecedented evacuation orders for areas in the south of the country dominated by Iran-backed Hezbollah.

An Israeli military source told AFP that four army divisions are currently deployed along the country’s northern border.

A Western military source in southern Lebanon said that “the Israelis are advancing one axis at a time”, destroying border villages as they advance.

The source told AFP on condition of anonymity that Israeli forces captured the strategic town of Khiam, located in the eastern part of the common border.

Hezbollah, which drew Lebanon into the Middle East war by firing rockets at Israel last month, claims that it has repeatedly attacked Israeli troops in southern Lebanon, where the Israeli army says 10 soldiers died in clashes.

A Western military source said that the Iran-backed group did not stop the advance of Israeli troops and was “seeking symbolic victories such as the destruction of Merkava tanks.”

David Wood, senior Lebanon analyst at the International Crisis Group, told AFP that as Israel moved deeper into Lebanon, it was “getting into a style of warfare that would suit Hezbollah better, with this kind of guerrilla hit-and-run style of warfare.”

The Lebanese army announced the “redeployment and deployment” of its troops to the southern areas where Israel was advancing.

A Lebanese military source said Israeli troops had advanced up to 10 kilometers (six miles) in some places and the Lebanese army, with its limited resources, feared being targeted or surrounded.

Israeli fire killed a Lebanese soldier on duty.

United Nations peacekeepers deployed in southern Lebanon failed to stop the conflict, and three of their soldiers were killed.

– What does Israel want? –

Katz said Israel would control Southern Lebanon until the Litani and promised that hundreds of thousands of Southern Lebanese would not return until the security of Northern Israel was guaranteed.

Lebanese Defense Minister Michel Menassa this week condemned the “clear intention to impose a new occupation on Lebanese territory.”

UN aid chief Tom Fletcher has warned that southern Lebanon could become another occupied region in the Middle East.

But Eyal Zisser, a Lebanon expert at Tel Aviv University, warned against taking Katz’s announcements at face value.

“He is good at making statements, but you always have to first check whether it fully corresponds to what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said,” he told AFP’s Jerusalem bureau.

Netanyahu ordered to “further expand” the so-called security zone in southern Lebanon “to definitively eliminate the threat of invasion (by Hezbollah militants) and keep anti-tank missile fire away from the border.”

Hezbollah has been “recruiting people from southern towns” for decades, giving the group “local power” that Israel fears could be further exploited if southerners return, military analyst and retired Lebanese army general Khalil Helou told AFP.

– New profession? –

Israel had previously tried to create a buffer zone in Southern Lebanon.

Following the initial invasion in 1978, Israeli troops returned four years later and entered Lebanon as far as Beirut to expel Palestinian militias.

Hezbollah was born in response to the 1982 invasion.

Israel gradually withdrew but retained an area 20 kilometers deep into Lebanese territory until 2000, when it withdrew under persistent pressure from Hezbollah.

The Lebanese are increasingly worried about a return to a similar scenario.

In its latest war with Hezbollah, and even after the ceasefire in November 2024, Israeli soldiers have damaged or destroyed large swathes of border villages and towns through strikes, controlled demolitions, and destruction of farmland.

Zisser said it was technically possible for Israel to maintain control of the area south of the Litani.

“But you have to make a decision, and you have to decide how you’re going to do it, whether you’re going to occupy the entire territory and settle there,” he said.

Meanwhile, Wood warned that the invasion would create “new security threats” for Israel.

“If Israel denies people the right to return to their ancestral homes, then armed resistance groups will emerge or continue to wage this struggle,” he said.

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