Inflation expectations drift back down to pre-tariff levels, New York Fed survey shows

According to a New York Federal Reserve survey published on Tuesday, the fears that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will lead to a sharp inflation increase earlier this year.

The Central Bank’s monthly consumer expectations survey shows that in June, participants saw inflation of inflation 12 months after that. This is before starting in January and before starting to hold a sword on trade.

The level decreased by 0.2 points from May and a withdrawal from the summit of 3.6% in March and April.

Since April, Trump has taken a menu of the so -called mutual tasks against slapping for 10% tariffs and against the US trade partner, including ongoing negotiations.

So far, tariffs have not yet emerged in most inflation reading. According to the Office of the Labor Statistics, the consumer price index increased only 0.1% in May, but the annual inflation rate remained over 2% target of the FED.

According to the survey, inflation expectations in the three and five -year horizons did not change at 3% and 2.6%, respectively.

While the title relieves the inflation appearance, the participants are still waiting for higher prices in several important categories. The questionnaire pointed to an increase in gas prices by 4.2%, 9.3% for medical care since June 2023 and 9.1% for both university education and rent. The appearance of food price increases did not change to 5.5%.

Employment metrics also showed some improvement, and after that, a higher unemployment rate decreased by 1.1 percent. In addition, the person’s expectation of losing his job has dropped to 14%, the lowest reading of 0.8 percent and the lowest reading since December.