Initiative may be slipping away from US and Israel as Middle East crisis deepens | US-Israel war on Iran

There is little doubt that in the early days of the new war in the Middle East, the initiative belonged to the United States and its ally Israel. But now he seems less sure.

Mohsen Rezaee, a senior officer of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, said on Sunday that “the end of the war is in our hands” and called for the withdrawal of Washington forces from the Gulf and compensation for all damages caused by the attack.

Three weeks ago it seemed unlikely that Tehran’s top officials would speak so confidently.

The conflict began with a surprise Israeli attack that killed religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. U.S. and Israeli warplanes then quickly proved they could operate over Iran without immunity, drawing on deep intelligence reserves to strike thousands of targets. The only significant casualties were due to friendly fire.

Iran retaliated with missiles and drones launched at Israel, which were largely intercepted by Israel’s air defenses. So far, 12 people have died in Iranian attacks in Israel. This figure is still much lower than the much shorter conflict between the two powers last year.

Gulf states fared less well when targeted by Iran, but they still managed to protect their residents and infrastructure from any crippling damage; But whether their significant stock of interceptor missiles will be depleted is much debated, and their reputation as an oasis of calm, luxury and wealth is in ruins.

The US and Israel are proving their huge conventional military superiority every day by launching more attacks on Iran, but the initiative seems to be slipping away from them.

Donald Trump has given several timelines for the duration of the conflict, but has suggested in recent days that it will only end after Iran is forced to make concessions. Many analysts believe the United States is stuck in a much longer war than it would like.

The critical change was the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries one fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas. This situation created shock waves in the global economy, causing oil prices to rise and pump prices to rise rapidly. The US president now faces domestic and international pressure for a rapid end to hostilities.

Danny Orbach, a professor of military history at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, nevertheless insisted that Israel and the United States were driving the dynamic of the war.

“Having the initiative means you’re setting the agenda… Iran’s missile launchers are running out… So the only thing left for Tehran was to escalate the conflict and hope it would somehow stop. That’s why it attacked the Gulf countries and then closed the Strait of Hormuz,” he said.

Some have suggested that Trump might order U.S. marines traveling to the Middle East to seize Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub, to put pressure on Tehran. But the sailors won’t come for at least two weeks.

Trump could also order the destruction of oil facilities in Kharg, which could potentially cripple Iran’s economy for years to come. Trump said on Saturday that only military targets had been hit so far and that it was a choice made “out of decency.”

“Iran is up to the US to decide whether to blow up its economy. If there is a stalemate, it is not an equal stalemate,” Orbach said.

However, other analysts disagree with this view. Peter Neumann, professor of security studies at King’s College London, said Iran had successfully played a bad hand.

“For several days, the United States has been trying to find a good response to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which they clearly did not expect… I think the initiative now lies with the Iranians,” Neumann said.

Trump called on other countries to send warships to join the US effort to reopen the strait. So far, none have agreed to do so, and most analysts say such an effort would be fraught with risks. Protecting hundreds of tankers not only requires the diversion of huge military resources but can never guarantee complete security for shipping. A single Iranian missile, mine or small boat loaded with explosives could have a devastating effect.

This suggests that the decision to reopen the strait will have to be made in Tehran. There is little evidence that Iran’s current leadership is inclined to do anything to alleviate the threat to the global economy, or that the regime change that Israel and the United States hope to achieve in Iran is imminent.

Neumann added: “Despite great success in destroying Iran’s military and economic infrastructure, this has not had the desired political effect. The regime appears weak but stable.”

Israeli commentators on Sunday described government efforts to lower expectations raised at the start of the war. Yoav Limor wrote in the mass-market newspaper Israel Hayom Officials believe regime change is less likely and blame “the strong pressure that the regime continues to maintain on security forces and the brutal repression that deeply frightens the Iranian people.”

However, within this spiraling regional crisis, other smaller conflicts may also follow their own dynamics.

Pro-Iran militias in Iraq still appear reluctant to commit fully to Iran’s defense, while Yemen’s Houthis have yet to engage in hostilities.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah surprised Israel by launching a series of comprehensive attacks with missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles to avenge Khamenei’s death. Since then, the Iran-backed Islamist movement has continued to fire salvoes into northern Israel, revealing a force many analysts had not suspected.

Israel responded with a massive airstrike that killed more than 800 people and forced the displacement of nearly 800,000.

Hezbollah doesn’t have the same cards as the Iranians, said David Wood, a Lebanon analyst with the nonprofit International Crisis Group.

“Israel has a clear and ambitious goal to eliminate Hezbollah, which poses a threat to its national security, but the means to achieve this are unclear. Hezbollah has a clear goal: to survive,” Wood said. “Hezbollah may have surprised even the Israelis at the beginning of the conflict, but we should not assume that it will be able to maintain this in the long term given Israel’s enormous military superiority.”