The by-election that could reveal Reform and Labour’s political future
When voters in Caerphilly, south Wales, go to the polls later this month, there will be approximately one seat in the Senedd, Wales’ devolved parliament.
Caerphilly, a post-industrial town just north of Cardiff, has long been considered a safe Labor area. But economic turmoil and social change in recent years have made such once-solid seats much less predictable.
So the contest is not just about who wins a single seat, it is also about what kind of Wales will emerge from a period of turmoil. Will he be someone who clings to the certainties of his industrial background? Or is it someone who looks to Plaid Cymru and the prospect of Welsh independence as the political voice of such unrest? Or will it alternatively turn to the populist right?
What happens here may indicate whether Labour’s grip on the Welsh valleys is beginning to loosen and whether new political forces are taking root. A local competition with national interest.
Labor remains the dominant political force in Wales but the last 18 months have been tumultuous. Mark Drakeford’s retirement as First Minister was followed by the brief and troubled leadership of Vaughan Gething.
Meanwhile, current prime minister Eluned Morgan faces her own challenges. 14 Labor members will resign before the 2026 Senedd election.
The Caerphilly by-election, triggered by the death of Labor member Hefin David, comes at a difficult time for Labor in both the UK and Wales.
While Labour’s UK leadership remains focused on Westminster, divisions over candidate selection and policy in Wales have occasionally exposed cracks in the party’s valley strongholds. History offers warnings.
For example, in 2005 Labor suffered a shock defeat in nearby Blaenau Gwent, when former Labor member Peter Law remained an independent after rebelling against the party’s choice of candidate. His victory, and the byelection victories that followed his death, showed how local discontent can upset even the safest seats.
Whatever happens in Caerphilly, the real test for Labor will be this; because the outcome may influence the majority to govern and pass a budget. As the largest party, it may remain in office but become impotent.
The rise of reform
Among the most striking developments in Welsh politics is the growing profile of Reform UK, which has now renamed its Welsh operation “Reform UK Wales”.
Analysis points to similarities with the Brexit Party and UKIP. Like previous parties, Reformation taps into the undercurrent of discontent present in many post-industrial communities.
Some research suggests that the Reformation may have been perceived as more racially divisive than its predecessors.
Reform in Caerphilly has an active local campaign and a simple message: Bring money and decision-making back to local communities. The party is both taking a stance against the Welsh government’s record in the Senedd and channeling its anger at Westminster.
About the authors
Marc Collinson is Lecturer in Political History at Bangor University.
Robin Mann is Lecturer in Sociology at Bangor University.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read original article.
For some voters, the appeal of Reformation is less about specific policies and more about mood – disillusionment with established politics and a desire for something new.
As part of the changes to be made next year, the Senedd will increase in size and a more proportional voting system will be adopted. This could make it easier for smaller parties such as Reform to gain representation, giving this by-election more significance as a test of their strength.
A strong showing would mark a profound realignment in Wales’ political geography and provide a measure of how far populist politics has become entrenched in areas once considered Labour’s core.
A stepping stone to a plaid government?
Plaid Cymru, meanwhile, is keen to show it can turn increased national support into real gains.
The party had previously come close to winning Caerphilly. In 1968 candidate Phil Williams reduced Labor’s majority from more than 20,000 to less than 2,000.
More recently, former Plaid leader Leanne Wood’s surprise victory in the nearby Rhondda in 2016 showed Plaid could thrive in the Labor heartland. But his loss five years later showed how difficult it is to maintain momentum.
Polls suggest Plaid could form government in 2026 if current trends continue, but this depends on establishing a consistent base in regions such as Caerphilly. The victory here will not only be symbolic; It will show that Plaid’s message resonates beyond rural and Welsh-speaking centres.
Upcoming electoral reforms could further boost Plaid’s chances if it can show voters that it offers a credible alternative to Labour.
Other parties’ expectations are modest. As the Conservatives try to make progress in Wales, the Liberal Democrats remain on the sidelines. But the Caerphilly by-election will still send a message far beyond this constituency.
Whatever the outcome, Caerphilly will offer a snapshot of a country in transition. Labor’s comfortable win shows its grip on the valleys remains intact. But a strong showing for Plaid or Reform could point to deeper realignments. This is proof that Wales’ political future could look very different to its past.
