Investors want firm timelines for Jio’s IPO, completion of new projects
As the company-guided timeline for listing Reliance Jio Platforms in the first half of 2026 draws closer, investors will be keen on a status update when management shares its third-quarter earnings on Friday, experts said.
Investors will also be looking for key updates on the progress of its new energy, artificial intelligence and consumer goods businesses, which have long been touted as the conglomerate’s next growth engine, with most of its cash flow in the coming years expected to fund those ventures.
“Investors want to know the timeline of the Jio IPO. This is the top thing on everyone’s mind because it will mean unlocking huge value,” said Sudip Bandyopadhyay, group chairman of financial services firm Inditrade Capital Ltd. “What they plan to do with the retail business is also very important, whether that’s unlocking value by bringing in more partners or spun off. Both businesses have grown a lot.”
Reliance is building a mega new energy complex near its oil refinery in Jamnagar, where the company plans to build everything from solar panels and renewable electricity to green hydrogen. But the timelines for these projects are far from certain, and delays are emerging in the commissioning of at least one major project involving the construction of battery cells vital to storing the clean energy the company plans to produce.
Earnings predictions
Reliance Industries is estimated to report a 15% increase in profit ₹21,317 crore with an 8% YoY increase in revenue. ₹2.58 trillion for the quarter ended December 31, according to the consensus estimate of three brokerage firms, including Motilal Oswal, PL Capital and Yes Securities.
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBIT) are projected to increase by one-tenth ₹48,574 crore.
Reliance Industries has three core businesses: refining, telecommunications and retail. Its oil-to-chemicals segment, which involves converting oil into aftermarket chemicals, generates half of the company’s revenue and nearly a third of its consolidated EBITDA.
Retail segment including retail stores and rapidly scaling retail segment fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) The business provides more than a quarter of consolidated revenue and approximately 14% of consolidated EBITDA. Jio Platforms’ digital services segment, which includes telecommunications and other digital services, generates less than 15% of revenue but around 40% of EBITDA.
The company also has an oil exploration and production division, which generates a modest 2% of revenue and a tenth of profit. The remainder comes from smaller businesses classified as the ‘other’ segment.
Investments that bear fruit
Analysts at Morgan Stanley said Reliance Industries has entered a monetization cycle for the fourth time in 30 years, with its refining, retail and telecom businesses simultaneously turning free cash flow positive for the first time in FY26. According to analysts, the company has invested approximately $80 billion in the last five years and “all of this is expected to come to fruition starting in 2026.”
The company has invested heavily in rolling out 5G connectivity across its telecommunications business in recent years, and capital expenditures are now reducing. Add to this the steady increase in the number of subscribers and the increase in tariffs, and the business is generating free cash ahead of the IPO.
As Jio’s subscriber base crosses 500 million, its average revenue per user (Arpu) is estimated by brokerages to reach: ₹211-214. Future projects for Arpu’s growth are bullish and brokerages are targeting Arpu ₹252-262 by FY28.
Meanwhile, the crude oil refining business is reaping the rewards of a shortage of global refining capacity amid the ongoing war and constraints on existing Russian and Ukrainian capacities.
Its retail business is also delivering as the consumer goods business grows following significant investments in acquiring brands and establishing distribution.
“RIL’s consumer brand business has rapidly grown in nearly three years of operation to a level close to peers such as ITC’s FMCG business, with 75% of business coming from general merchandise,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said.
No Russian hangover
Analysts predict a discount Russian crude oil It accounted for more than a third of Reliance’s oil imports in the first nine months of FY26. Cheap oil added directly to Reliance’s refining margins. Reliance’s refining margins may take a hit if purchases of this discounted oil suddenly stop due to US sanctions.
JP Morgan’s financial model suggests that discounts per barrel fell from $14 per barrel to $3 or below the market rate towards August of this year.
Refining margins increased across the sector due to reduced refining capacity due to Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries.
“Refining margins remain high due to flexible crack spreads (the price difference between a barrel of crude oil and the refined products derived from it) due to Ukraine’s ongoing drone attacks on Russian refineries and refinery maintenance outages that reduced global refinery capacity availability in the third quarter,” analysts at PL Capital said, adding that the benchmark Singapore GRM (gross refining margin) rose to $4.9 per barrel in the third quarter from $4 per barrel in the previous quarter.
Growing fuel shortages globally are offsetting much of the hit to Reliance’s margins, whose discounts were already falling after it cut purchases of Russian oil. Analysts said this was a short-term event because the contraction in refinery capacity would be overcome by opening new refineries and repairing damaged Russian infrastructure.
Timelines question
Analysts said the key triggers for a re-rating of the stock in the coming months will be Jio’s IPO, material progress in the FMCG business and the commissioning of the new power complex in Jamnagar.
Analysts at Nuvama Institutional Equities noted in November: “RIL’s launch of New Energy will not only add 50% positive value to PAT but will also re-rate valuations, including the O2C business, given the target of net zero carbon by 2035.”
However, many brokerage firms underlined that the delay in putting the new energy complex into operation would be a significant investment risk. This further increases the need for the company to give precise timelines to its plans.
The company plans battery cell plant Jamnagar is scheduled to start in 2026 instead of the already delayed 2025 schedule. Bloomberg He suggested the plant could face further delays following a failed technology tie-up with a Chinese partner. Reliance Industries denied this report and reaffirmed that it will stick to guided timelines.
KG-D6 oil block dispute
Apart from its financial performance, Reliance investors will also be watching for management comments regarding the ongoing dispute with the Indian government over the KG-D6 offshore oil and gas block during the post-earnings analyst meeting.
The Indian government sought $30 billion from the company during a private arbitration over inadequate production in the bloc. Reuters It was reported on December 29, citing unidentified persons. Reliance denied the report.
“There is NO $30 Billion claim against Reliance and BP,” the company said. “The matters referred to in the report are entirely sub-judice and will be determined in accordance with the laws of the country by the judicial system in which Reliance has full confidence.”
Reliance shares have lost over 8% since the start of 2026, compared to a 2.27% decline in the Sensex.
