Iran has a new demand to end the war – and it could bring in billions
As an Iranian official revealed this week a list of demands To end the war initiated by the United States and Israel, Tehran added an item that was not on its list before: recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
The narrow waterway through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes. The most powerful weapon of the Islamic Republic. Now it is seeking to become both a potentially multibillion-dollar source of annual revenue and a pressure point on the global economy.
Iran has long threatened to close the strait in the event of an attack, but few expected it to continue or be so effective in disrupting global trade flows. The extent of influence appears to have broadened Tehran’s ambitions; The new demands show Tehran is trying to turn that advantage into something more durable.
Shipping through this choke point has come to a near halt due to Iranian attacks, throwing global energy markets into turmoil and forcing countries far beyond the Persian Gulf to take urgent measures to secure fuel supplies.
“Iran has been a bit taken aback by how successful the Hormuz strategy has been, by how cheap and relatively easy it has been to hold the global economy hostage,” said Dina Esfandiary, Middle East director at Bloomberg Economics. “One of the lessons learned in the war is that he discovered this new trump card and will probably use it again in the future. And I think making money off of it is part of discovering that he has this trump card.”
Washington is acutely aware of this risk. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned on Friday that one of the immediate challenges in the wake of the war would be Tehran’s attempts to establish a toll system at Hormuz.
“This is not only illegal, it’s unacceptable, it’s dangerous for the world, and it’s important that the world has a plan to confront this,” Rubio said after the G7 meeting in France. he said. The group’s foreign ministers stressed the “absolute necessity” of restoring “freedom of safe and free navigation”.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke to the press after the G7 meeting. – Brendan Smialowski/Pool/AFP/Getty Images
Mojtaba Khamenei, drawing attention to the increasing strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz He first used his so-called address As Iran’s new religious leader, he said the power to block the waterway “must continue to be used.”
In previous rounds of negotiations with the United States, Iran had pressed for sanctions relief and recognition of the right to peaceful nuclear technology, but not control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran is now signaling that this pressure may be formalized. While Iranian lawmakers are considering a bill that would require countries using the strait to transport fuel and goods to pay tolls, an adviser to the religious leader spoke of “a new regime for the Strait of Hormuz” after the war. This new system will allow Tehran to impose maritime restrictions on its rivals and effectively link access to one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes with geopolitical disputes.
“The imposition of transit fees is a violation of transit rules,” said James Kraska, a professor of international maritime law at the U.S. Naval Academy. He stated that there is no legal basis in international law for a coastal state to demand a fee in an international strait like Hormuz.
“The Strait of Hormuz is a strait used for international navigation, overlapping the territorial waters of Iran and Oman. Iranian and Omani laws apply in these waters,” he said. “However, since it is an international strait, the right of transit passage, which allows unobstructed surface, overflight and underwater passage, is available to all states.”
The rules are set out in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Although neither Iran nor the United States is a party to the convention, Kraska says many of its core principles still apply because they are widely accepted as customary international law. But he added that Iran could still try to use its membership to bolster its own claim.
There are very few examples of a state successfully charging a fee for transit through an international strait. In the 19th century, Denmark demanded a toll for passage through the Danish Straits, but agreed to this tariff after protests from many states. Copenhagen Convention of 1857He said the so-called Voice Dues have been permanently abolished.
A rival to the Suez Canal
That hasn’t stopped Iran from exploring what such a system might look like or how lucrative it might be.
Experts question whether Iran can establish a pricing system that would be internationally accepted, but if successful, revenues could compete with those generated by Egypt’s Suez Canal, according to CNN calculations.
Normally, approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day; this is roughly equivalent to about 10 so-called very large crude carriers (VLCCs). One $2 million fee reported Per tanker, that works out to about $20 million per day, or about $600 million per month, from oil alone.
If LNG shipments are included, this figure can rise to over $800 million per month; This corresponds to approximately 15-20% of Iran’s monthly oil export revenue in 2024.
By comparison, Egypt generates between $700 and $800 million per month in an average year from the Suez Canal, a government-controlled artificial waterway; Red Sea blackouts.
Egypt earns between 700 and 800 million dollars a month from the Suez Canal. – Sayed Hasan/Getty Images
Hormuz’s gain in money may also be due to Iran’s economic pressures. Esfandiary noted that Tehran sees the toll as a way to “compensate for some of its economic shortcomings” under sanctions, describing it as a relatively “easy” and “low-cost” mechanism to compensate for limited access to global markets. Iran is among the countries subject to the most severe sanctions in the world, ranking second after Russia.
Iran has repeatedly said the Strait of Hormuz remains open, but not unconditionally. Authorities say “non-hostile” ships can pass, provided they coordinate with Iranian officials. According to Reuters, the foreign ministry conveyed its position in a letter to the UN Security Council and the International Maritime Organization.
At the same time, Tehran appears to be testing what a controlled transit system might look like in practice. Ship tracking data shows Some tankers use a route close to the Iranian coast, and it is reported that some operators may have paid for safe passage.
No country, importer or ship operator has publicly acknowledged paying a fee, and the details of any arrangements remain unclear. But maritime intelligence firm Lloyd’s List reported on Monday: more than 20 ships At least two ships, understood by Lloyd’s, reportedly paid for it, one of which cost around $2 million.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps We established a registration system For approved ships, some governments are contacting Tehran directly to secure the passage of their tankers, Lloyd’s List reported.
“It’s happening. And I suspect it’s going to happen a little more frequently if we don’t see progress in terms of negotiations,” Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, told CNN. “But as we speak, the maritime industry is effectively paralyzed.”
CNN’s Becky Anderson, Helen Regan and Billy Stockwell contributed reporting.
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