Iran is now on ‘death ground’ amid existential threat from U.S. attacks and could ‘go big’ in retaliation, former NATO commander warns
With President Donald Trump calling for regime change in Iran, the country’s leadership now faces an existential threat and will likely respond to US-Israeli airstrikes accordingly, experts said.
So far, the Islamic Republic appears to be launching fewer missiles and drones in retaliation compared to its barrage in June 2025, when the United States joined Israel’s 12-day war against Iran to target nuclear facilities.
But retired Admiral James Stavridis, former NATO supreme allied commander, he told CNN Iran has two options on Saturday. The first is to continue launching missiles at the current tempo and retreat.
“Option two: If they truly believe they are at the end of the road, they can take a big step, and that means closing the Strait of Hormuz, launching terrorist attacks against American diplomats, businessmen and citizens in the region and elsewhere,” he added. “They could release what’s left of their proxies, especially the Houthis, who might try to stop shipping through the Suez Canal again. So they still have a lot of cards to play.”
Energy analysts have warned that closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil passes, could send Brent crude oil prices soaring to $100 a barrel.
Before the US and Israel launched airstrikes, Iran conducted military exercises near the strait to demonstrate this threat, but there is currently no indication it is making such an attempt.
The first US airstrikes on Saturday also reportedly targeted Iranian naval assets in the Persian Gulf, potentially weakening Tehran’s ability to close the strait. Trump vowed to destroy Iran’s navy.
Stavridis also recalled the teachings of the ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu, who advised finding a way out of conflicts without actually fighting, but by fighting on the “killing field.”
“I think the Iranian leadership might feel that they are on their deathbed. I would like them to have great success,” he predicted.
Meanwhile, Colin Clarke, managing director of security consultancy Soufan Center, also warned that Iran could resort to extreme measures, including terrorism, to retaliate.
“For Iran, this war is an existential war. And since it is, I fully expect Tehran to mobilize whatever sleeper cell capacity it has in the West, making this painful for the United States and Israel. Hezbollah and other entities may well try to launch attacks in Europe, North America, etc.” Published on X.
Thomas Warrick, an Atlantic Council fellow and former assistant secretary for counterterrorism policy at the Department of Homeland Security, similarly raised the possibility of Iran using “asymmetric” tactics against the United States.
One blog postHe said the regime would likely target Trump and other senior U.S. officials and put pressure on the FBI, Secret Service and Capitol Police.
“Iran will try every cyber trick it can, testing the Department of Homeland Security, the private sector, and U.S. cyber defenses,” Warrick added. “Iran has tried but failed to interfere in US elections in the past and is almost certainly unlikely to have any impact this time. Although the US imports very little oil from the Middle East, energy prices could rise, setting the US economy back.”
This story first appeared on: Fortune.com
