Iran may ‘lash out harder’ following Khamenei’s death
TOPSHOT – A cloud of smoke rises after an explosion reported in Tehran on February 28, 2026. (Photo: AFP via Getty Images)
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The escalating conflict in the Middle East is raising fears that Washington’s pursuit of regime change in Iran and retaliation by Tehran could destabilize regions from the Gulf to Europe and prompt global leaders to scramble to assess the consequences.
The United States and Israel launched joint attacks on Iran over the weekend, killing the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and sparking a wave of attacks by Tehran across the region.
President Donald Trump made clear in a video message released Saturday after the first wave of U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran that his goal is to “eliminate imminent threats from the Iranian regime, which is a group of very tough, terrible people.”
Geopolitical analysts warned that Saturday’s attacks could be the opening salvo in a sustained military campaign aimed at eliminating the Iranian regime as the United States seeks dominance over the world’s most critical oil-producing region.
“The scale of US and Israeli attacks and the apparent goal of regime change in Iran suggest that military conflict could escalate quickly and unpredictably,” said Rexon Ryu, president of business consultancy The Asia Group. “There is a serious immediate risk of regional and potentially global escalation as Iran may now use any available option to respond.”
“Previous strikes were targeting the nuclear weapons program,” said David Silbey, a professor of military history at Cornell University, referring to the 12-day war in June last year in which the United States and Israel launched airstrikes that damaged three key Iranian nuclear facilities.
But Silbey said: “This will be much broader in scope, targeting command and control, headquarters and leadership, and the military and secret police in general.” “Since it looks like there won’t be a US ground operation anytime soon, the aim is to overthrow the regime domestically, either through a popular uprising or a palace coup.”
Silbey warned that Iran could respond with retaliatory attacks, including missile strikes on Israeli and US military bases and ships in the Persian Gulf, and potential terrorist operations in the Middle East, Europe and the US.
“If the regime feels threatened, it will react more harshly than if it thought it could weather the attacks,” Silbey said.
The latest fire spread to other parts of the Gulf region. Iranian missiles targeted Israel and all Gulf states, including the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan, countries with air bases that include US assets.
“Iran’s years-long détente with the Gulf may have come to an end,” said Aysha Chowdhry, director of The Asia Group.
Russia and China are on the sidelines
Both Russia and China have issued statements condemning the United States and will likely continue to do so as the situation escalates, but analysts say neither is in a position to provide more meaningful material support.
China, a critical economic lifeline for Iran in the face of heavy Western sanctions, was acquired more than 80% 13.5 percent of the oil shipped by Tehran in 2025 accounts for 13.5 percent of the crude oil China imports by sea. Iran has also been a vital supplier of military drones and missiles to aid Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine.
But years of grinding war in Ukraine have frustrated Russia’s capacity to project power beyond its borders, said Matt Gerken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.
Gerken added that Moscow’s influence in the Middle East will decline further because its military is overstretched and its economy is under constant pressure from Western sanctions.
Iranian Deputy Defense Minister Majid Ebnoreza (left) shakes hands with Zhang Li, China’s former defense attache to the United States, after his speech at the plenary session of the Xiangshan Forum in Beijing, September 19, 2025.
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However, while Washington continued to increase its military presence in the Gulf ahead of the attack, Beijing refrained from giving strong support to Iran. Instead, he focused on promoting diplomacy and regional security.
Analysts are watching for potential signs of whether this latest conflict in the Middle East could risk derailing the U.S.-China diplomatic relationship and even President Trump’s planned visit to Beijing later this month.
In a statement Saturday night, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman called on the United States and Israel to “immediately stop military actions” in the region and restart dialogue, calling for “respect for Iran’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity.”
Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed issues such as Iran, Taiwan and trade in their phone call on February 4. “Beijing may seek concessions on issues more directly related to its interests, such as Taiwan and trade, in exchange for significantly watered-down messaging towards Iran,” said Ahmed Aboudouh of Chatham House, a London-based policy think tank.
A weakened Iran may paradoxically be in China’s interests. “The more the Iranian regime is weakened by US or Israeli military strikes or internal unrest, the more dependent it will become on China diplomatically, economically and technologically,” Aboudouh said.
In the long term, China will likely feel pressure to dominate the region. “China will need to make a show of power projection in its region to deter American military action and create a sphere of influence, but for now, oil supply weaknesses may limit its options,” Aboudouh said.
Collapsed conversations
Military actions appear to have shattered any remaining hopes of achieving peace, at least for now. An agreement was reached on Iran’s nuclear program.
The United States and Iran have held three rounds of indirect talks focused on reaching an agreement on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs and Washington lifting economic sanctions against the country.
Gerken said that at a time when the Iranian regime was at a moment of “critical vulnerability,” Washington and Jerusalem were unable to obtain guarantees of nuclear disarmament and disarmament from Tehran and decided that “they could not afford to miss the opportunity to reshape the region.”
