Iran sends first significant message of de-escalation, but with a major caveat

Moments after Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian said in an apparently pre-recorded statement: Teheran Some countries have stated that they will stop attacks on their Gulf neighbors under certain conditions.

The launches were some of the biggest launches since then. war began and coincided with the one-week anniversary of the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. strikes by the USA and Israel.

Pezeshkian said that the decision to stop attacks on the Gulf if the attacks against Iran did not come from the territory of these countries was taken on Friday. On Saturday morning, Iran fired 16 ballistic missiles and 121 drones at the United Arab Emirates alone.

Still, Pezeshkian apologized to neighbors for days of attacks that have caused panic in areas once thought safe, in the most high-profile de-escalating comments ever made by Iran.

The reformist leader has displayed an almost constant air of contrition since taking office; He made numerous public apologies for the sharp deterioration of the national economy during his tenure, the killing of thousands of protesters during demonstrations, and the persistent inefficiencies of his own government.

He is now apologizing on behalf of Iran’s armed forces and saying they “acted within their own authority and did what was necessary to defend our homeland with honor and strength,” a message some Iranian leaders have repeated to justify the heavy targeting of cities in Gulf Arab states.

unknown future

It is unclear whether the statements of the Leadership Council, of which Pezeshkian is now a member, following the killing of other key leaders in US-Israeli attacks, are compatible with the goals of the armed forces or the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has independently mobilized its own measures in response to US and Israeli attacks.

Pezeshkian’s comments reassured Gulf Arab countries. But bullets flew into the air shortly after his speech, indicating that it is too early to tell whether Iranian attacks have stopped.

And his comments came with the stipulation that the territory of Gulf Arab states, which host many major US military bases, not be used to launch attacks on Iran. In a “clarification” statement released after his speech, Pezeshkian’s office emphasized that Iran “will give a decisive response to any attack from American bases.”

As the region grapples with an unknown future, it remains unclear what actions Iran’s armed forces and proxies will consider hostile to the Islamic Republic.

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Shortly after Pezeshkian’s statement, US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that Iran had “surrendered to its neighbors in the Middle East” and would be “hit very hard” today, with parts of the country being considered for “complete destruction and certain death.”

In its own statement, the Iranian army stated that if offensive actions against Iran continue, “all military bases and interests of the criminal American regime and the fake Zionist regime in the region on land, sea and air will be the main target of overwhelming and violent attacks by the powerful Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

leadership gap

Pezeshkian made his comments amid a leadership vacuum and uncertainty about Iran’s path forward.

Joining Pezeshkian on the leadership council are senior cleric Ayatollah Alireza Arefi, 67, a powerful member of the Guardian Council, and Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, the notorious head of the judiciary. Together, they form the interim authority that will manage the country’s affairs until Khamenei’s successor is chosen.

Iran’s military, now with interim leaders, has become largely independent and isolated as the council struggles to manage the war affairs of a population of 96 million people who have been subjected to the heaviest military assaults in the country’s history.

Even Oman, an important mediator with close relations with Iran, was hit by Iranian missiles. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the attacks were not the government’s choice and that Tehran had instructed the armed forces to be careful in choosing targets, but that the military units had become “independent and in a way isolated.”

“They are acting according to general instructions given to them in advance,” Araghchi told Al Jazeera this week.

In a possible sign of impatience, some of Iran’s leading clerics have called for a new religious leader to be elected as soon as possible.

The election of a religious leader is a secretive and complex process limited to clergy in a council called the Assembly of Experts; this procedure was followed only once, 37 years ago, when the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, died and Khamenei was chosen as his successor.

Khamenei was elected supreme leader within 24 hours as the clergy moved quickly to fill the massive void left by the revered Ayatollah Khomeini. The new leader ruled the country for 37 years before he was assassinated.

Today, the Islamic Republic is aware that it faces an existential crisis and is being extremely careful in choosing its next leader.

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