Iran strikes out as Russia and China stand aside
By Samia Nakhoul
DUBAI, March 5 (Reuters) – With its supreme leader killed and its war machine under relentless U.S. pressure, Iran is now largely alone; long-time partners Russia and China offer nothing but diplomatic condemnations and expressions of concern.
Tehran responded to the US and Israeli attacks by extending the conflict beyond the Middle East, firing missiles and drones with an impact that reverberated across global energy markets, shaking capitals from Washington to Beijing and paralyzing shipping that carries 20% of the world’s oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian missiles reached Cyprus, Azerbaijan, Türkiye and the Gulf countries, targeting critical businesses, energy infrastructure and US bases, bringing the war to their doorsteps. Oil facilities, refineries and key supply routes were hit, causing severe disruptions in crude and natural gas supplies.
THE RESTRICTION REFLECTS THE ‘COLD ACCOUNT’
With the Strait of Hormuz already closed, the attacks caused energy prices to rise, destabilized global markets and forced major economies to struggle; This underlined that the world was exposed to the effects of Tehran’s response to the war.
Analysts say Russia and China’s hesitancy reflects cold calculation: Intervening at a time when Iran is facing Israel and the United States will bring high costs, limited gains and unpredictable risks; burdens that neither power is willing to shoulder.
“Putin has other priorities, and Ukraine is at the top of them,” said Anna Borshchevskaya, a Russia expert at the Washington Institute. “It would be foolish for Russia to engage in a direct military conflict with the United States.”
“The escalating tensions with Iran and in and around the Gulf are already distracting attention from the war in Ukraine. This is just a fact. Everything else is just emotions about a ‘fallen ally’,” a senior Russian source said.
Beijing and Moscow helped Iran build military capacity to counter US and Israeli pressure; It has provided missiles, air defense systems, and technologies aimed at enhancing deterrence, complicating U.S. operations, and increasing the costs of attack. However, this support now appears limited.
STARK PARADOX
China has spent years inserting itself into Middle East diplomacy; Russia, on the other hand, portrayed Iran as the pillar of its anti-Western alliance.
But when the conflict flared up, both powers were constrained: China by its dependence on Gulf energy and trade and security priorities in Asia, Russia by an overwhelming war in Ukraine that weakened its capacity to protect its partners and sharpened its need to maintain ties with the oil-rich Gulf states.
The result is a paradox: Iran remains strategically useful to both, but not useful enough to fight for.
With Russia’s military, diplomatic bandwidth and economic resources still being absorbed by the war in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin’s priority is to avoid tensions with Washington and protect Russia’s interests in the Middle East rather than gamble on Iran’s battlefield fortunes.
“If Russia had directly supported Iran, it would have alienated the Gulf countries and Israel,” Borshchevskaya said. “This is not what Putin wants.”
Beijing’s measured response reflects a long-standing strategy: to avoid binding security commitments that are distant from its core interests.
CHINA ALLIANCES FOCUS ON TRADE AND INVESTMENT
Evan A. Feigenbaum of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said that unlike the United States, whose alliances are based on mutual defense obligations, China prefers partnerships built on trade, investment and arms sales, and these ties do nothing but drag it into costly conflicts beyond East Asia.
Beijing, one of the world’s biggest trading powers and energy buyers, maintains ties with Iran and its Sunni rivals in the Gulf and has never placed all its bets in Latin America on Venezuela alone.
“If Beijing wants to do more, it will not divert strategic attention or military assets from basic security,” says Henry Tugendhat of the Washington Institute. “He only cares about his name abroad. He cares about Taiwan, the South China Sea, and perceived threats from the United States and Japan.”
The conflict could even give Beijing an advantage. China can watch from the sidelines as U.S. forces tie up and military stockpiles deplete far from East Asia, while also gaining a real-time view of American capabilities and operations and insights that could shape its thinking about the future Taiwan scenario.
China’s key vulnerability is the energy flow through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries approximately 45% of its oil imports. But experts say Beijing has built strategic reserves and already has significant amounts of Iranian oil sitting in tankers or warehouses.
They say the crisis has allowed Moscow and Beijing to recast themselves as mediators. China said Foreign Minister Wang Yi had pressed for dialogue with European and Arab ministers, while Putin had similar talks with Gulf leaders and Iranian officials.
HIGH OIL PRICES HELP RUSSIA
Russia also sees tangible benefits: Rising oil prices strengthen its war economy, and a US administration committed to the Middle East has less bandwidth for Ukraine.
Borshchevskaya said that Russia has no interest in the collapse of the Iranian regime, but at the same time it does not tie its fate to Tehran’s survival. Moscow is risk-averse, remaining flexible regardless of the outcome of the conflict, and will engage with any new government, even if it is aligned with Washington.
The Russian source cited Syria as an example. Despite years of backing ousted president Bashar al-Assad, Moscow retained its Mediterranean bases and quickly established ties with Syria’s new leader Ahmed al-Shara, underlining its willingness to trade loyalty for long-term advantage.
(Additional reporting by Guy Faulconbridge in Moscow, Liz Lee in Hong Kong; reporting and writing by Samia Nakhoul; editing by Sharon Singleton)
